The goals are both long term and short term, but all goals must get to the maximum profit. Short term, sell as much as you can with as much margin as you can get. Long term, get as many machines out there as possible at this time of year.
The consumer decision making process is something you and i should leave to SODA management.
My sense is that they figure a lot ofd people that don't know what they want to get as the season moves towards its conclusion are more influenced by bargains as they approach those final decisions.
So, they discount to get those machines out there.
The end consumer at this time of year might not be the buyer, but the gif tee. So no one is worse off for the discount.
My two cents.
The quarter's sales are already done. The retail sold during December on sale will not be replaced, sold by DODA, until Q1 2014. Stop being stupid.
We used to joke about VWs and Japanese cars 40 years ago. Here's a sample. They're going to make a compact Cadillac for folks on welfare.
You can't believe it's possible that in ten, twenty or 30 years it might be that energy conservation laws will eliminate cans and plastic bottles. You just can't imagine that, can you? What then for KO and PEP?
You won't have to be concerned though because they will have, long before that, entered into partnerships with SODA, GMCR and others who are pioneering home making of those products.
Now have a good laugh and remember to tell your grandchildren about these conversations.
I think you overstate, by a lot, the potential competition from GMCR.
Most coffee has always been made by the pot, a very impractical way for an individual to make coffee for one. There was always a need for a single cup brewer and Keurig filled it and they now do almost $5 billion in sales.
SODA has been the filler of a need for home making of soft drinks. It is a disruptor. Single serve home brew is not a disruptor. It really is that simple. Moms are not going to spend substantially more to make an individual serving of soda when they can make an entire bottle in about the same amount of time and at a savings.
Will Keurig succeed? Maybe. Will it really eat into SODA sales and profits, not much if at all.
Most likely GMCR entry and maybe even others' entry will reinforce and confirm the viability of the SODA business plan, a plan that even now all those shorters question.
I think it is KO and PEP shareholders that should begin to be concerned about home soda making by GMCR, not the shareholders of SODA.
Then, of course, there's always a little paranoia. If I was a potential suitor of SODA, I sure would like to see the stock price beaten down real good just before I made my offer.
The downgrades seem to fly in the face of the sellout information that has been posted here, don't you think? Downgrades based on if come speculation on GMCR would be off base, IMO. I think it's a little hard for an analyst to go against the numbers and the guidance of SODA. So, I wonder what they know or think they know that we don't know.
I suggest your doctor increase your antidepressant dosage. It should reduce your output of anger and allow you to get along better with your classmates.
It's that simple, IMO. I've been saying for a long time that advertising should focus on testimonials, not green. The only green investors believe in is dollars, not the conservation story.
We have a dichotomy here.
The stock is falling or let's saying not moving up because of the potential of competition from GMCR and SBUX. Yes, track back to where the momentum really stopped. The failure to hit revenue numbers is overcome by smart investors by the sell out numbers.
So, if potential competition is the problem, doesn't that mean the business plan works?
The shorts get their way until there is enough new interest to push the stock price up.
That could happen if the focus of advertising switches and we get to see people we are familiar with using the product.
Then, and only then, IMO, will we see the shorts begin to really jump ship.
Seth, can abusers get stoned on them if they use two or three doses? I got mildly high the other day when I tried out the diet orange mango. Is the company exposing itself to liability by creating even greater ease of use and putting it in the hands of other potential abusers?
I just ordered off the Sodastream site because I need to try the diet Orange Mango and I didn't want to go on a search to get it. However, I did notice that a Kroger, not my closest, is now carrying product. I got a feeling 4th quarter is going to be a major upside surprise.
I agree with you in part. SODA is an almost perfect stock for manipulation. I began with just to little sold to the retail market and almost all shares in the hands of institutions. This does allow an institution that plays in day trades a lot of leverage in that typical daily volume is so light.
There is one thing that bothers my paranoid mind. I think that if you sell large volumes of calls or take massive short positions you are not likely to do so without pretty good certainty that nothing is likely to disrupt your position. For example, if you own a million and short a million, your current profit is locked in, but what if SODA sky rockets. You don't lose anything, but your out those magnificent profits that all of us are waiting for.
So, I believe these hedges know more than we do, that is, they have inside information that tells them it is safe to short for the next 4 weeks or sell those calls because nothing of any significance is going to happen until January…etc.
If you think that is paranoia, ask yourself this. How many times has SODA made a major move when short interest was at its peak? How far away from maximum pain on the third Friday of any month has SODA been?
So, for me, I think tit likely here are insiders involved.
Has anyone commented on the billion dollar buyback yet? Does it occur to anyone that you don't do that kind of thing if you're planning on starting a new enterprise as complex as distribution of soda syrups, CO2 and soda making machines? Such an enterprise requires significant capital and the wherewithal to stay the course. Hey, but I could be wrong. Maybe their management and board are real adventuresome.
Yeah, I think you're right. It's just the kind of thing their shareholders and bankers will be ecstatic about, possibly #$%$ away a years earnings on a new enterprise that SODA has had locked up for years and Wall Street thinks is a fad. Yeah, that's the ticket.
Reminds me of a story in my restaurant years. A supplier, a baker, that I dealt with had a nervous breakdown. I stopped off at his house and talked to his wife on the front porch. I asked her what happened. I said I heard that volume was great. She said yes it was, but the problem was that the more her husband sold the more money he lost. He had been selling at lower and lower prices to beat his competition until his variable costs exceeded his revenues. Reminds me of AMZN.
Unless another shoe drops, the shorts are in for a very bad week. There really wasn't enough bad to drop what appeared to be an undervalued stock 20%. I think it goes right back up by option expiration.