IMO, no analyst would give significant value to tax incentives that might be temporary or only affect a smaller portion of a companies earnings.
Remember that the company's value is what it might be worth to another in a buyout and if it was PEP or other US company tax structures might change quickly.
What matters are gross sales, margins and EBITDA to most analysts. Just my opinion.
For now it appears that a major stock holder is dumping at just under $40 and we are stuck until they are finished.
You want to partner with milk,yes. Try this . Make Sodastream root beer or cola. Put about an ounce or so of whole milk, better yet half and half, in the bottom of a glass and pour your root beer or cola over it. No ice. Try it. You'll like it.
I was thinking that this was the worst I've ever felt about SODA in the three years i've been buying and selling it. Reminds me of the time ATTY threw in the towel and the stock soared.
I can't really think of anything lease that can go wrong. KO chooses GMCR, then a miss and then almost everyone downgrades. What else can happen?
The pendulum is always swinging, I think, and maybe we are on the far side about to swing back. Winter has to end, in the Chauncy Gardner way of saying things, and with spring and summer coming, I'd bet we see renewed interest in cold beverages on all levels.
I don't doubt that. I just suspect that the company will wait until some time passes, until the dust settles, before they might announce any significant acquisition or strategic partnership.
I don't know if that is weeks or months, but I know that many who play the market have little patience and that delay might be affecting some.
He said something like "Everyone is entitled to make a mistake."
I think this tells us that KO and SODA had significant negotiations. I would find it hard to believe that KO made a decision to go with GMCR without poking around at SODA and Birnbaum's reaction tells you that for some reason KO didn't choose SODA.
I missed part of the CC. Did anyone try to pin it down as to whether there were talks between them? And if there were why they failed?
Could be they couldn't reach financial terms. Could be KO really believes in GMCR's theoretical machine
Why don't you save your judgements of others for your time in the jury box. I gave my concerns. The stock price has gone in 1/2 over the last year. Apparently the market also believes a pony can take a sheet.
I remember back in about 1989 I was thinking about buying a new car. One of the young guys said wait for the Lexus to come out. I am concerned SODA won't make the deal they need to make.
Home carbonation started by SODAS is a game changer. That doesn't mean SODA can't lose the game.
People don't seem to know what to do with this information that seems to tell us very little about the future. The guidance, IMO, is seriously bad projecting huge decrease in sales acceleration. If one were to presume that earnings guidance so low is related to increase in marketing, one might ask, what's the point of all that marketing if sales volume is expected to rise only 15%. With a market still so untapped and no real competition yet, what's going on?
I sure hope trey have something more substantial to say at the CC.
Think about what you're posting. Do you believe they can get through the gauntlet of analysts questions with a BS story that requires credibility to be acceptable? Their statements will either be true or false or be opinions. The opinions will be discarded by all and the falsehoods will be uncovered while the meeting is going on. So, do you really think anything that is said will be untrue?
No, the facts will be laid out and they will be judged as good or bad for the company and/or the investors. We'll have our answer as to whether or not the current management even gets to stay, IMO, before the CC is over and the stock price will reflect it all by about 10AM.
So, I figure this it it. Either yes to the viability of SODA and a major move up or no and we see low $30s or even $20s by noon.
I can't see this being a kiss your sister morning.
If management deals with the issues I brought up adequately, well then, there won't be a management credibility issue, will there?
There's something about your response that just sounds sour and somewhat stupid. Are you sour or stupid? Which is it?
They have to address two interrelated issues.
1. What happened to Q4 margins and why?
2. Why whatever happened in Q4 will not impact 2014 Q3 and Q4.
If they successfully address those two issues SODA should pop big time.
If they fail at those two issues, I think it is over for this company.
They, the management have to know this.
I don't see how you can come up with some half baked idea that the analysts will buy. The analysts have to believe after this call ends that SODA will do very well in the last half of the year, that KO/GMCR is not a major threat to SODA's existence and I believe the analysts have to believe that there is a good chance that SODA will partner or merge or etc..with a major player such as PEP.
Picture that you are considering either selling your long position or buying into a long position on SODA.
Then you read an article, a fair article.
It points out that the stock is perhaps oversold. However, there are "headwinds" as mentioned by management.
It points out that KO and GMCR activity validates concept. However, competition is just that, competition and who knows what that will mean?
It points out that relative to competitors ratios SODA is a great value, but don't forget those headwinds and that competition.
So, do you buy in. I think not? Do you sell your long position or hold on? Maybe you sell.
This picture won't change unless management gives a reason to change it or PEP or someone else enters the picture.
Are you stupid? Did you expect that most people posting here would not be investors in SODA? Just curious.
The thing is that the stock has been falling based on the expectation that there will be no positiveness.
In the past it was said that at the first bad news, SODA would crash and that was true.
Now what is true?
What kind of bad news is possible, likely..?
My sense is it's all the bad is cooked in and the slightest bit of positive will cause the shorts to cover for fear no more bad news coming.
I'd bet greater than 50% odds tomorrow is up as the smart guys know this and that we close in low to mid $40s on Wed.
It has been said here before “If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.” Steve Jobs said that.
We are reaching a tipping point where the big boys know what the inevitability of success for home carbonation will mean and they know it's better to be part of it then left behind.
There are still some kooks left who come here and post absurdities. The short argument about the fad thing is over. The shorts can only hope that competition ruins SODA. Even that argument becomes nonsense as it becomes evident there is plenty of room for a market that if it achieves just 10% penetration might be $30 billion world wide and maybe far more and maybe far sooner as we flow over that tipping point.
Makes sense to me. Thirst is a thing of the past like horse drawn carriages. Peoples' attitudes are constantly changing and they are just fed up with being thirsty anymore. The quicker Pepsi accepts this the faster they can get on to dealing with real business issues.