I assume there is no way for the rumors not to be resolved. If there is no deal announced, it's likely that almost no one will continue to believe there is a deal in the works. IMO, there has to be be a premium in the share price for the rumor, possibly as much as 20%. So, I see the share price moving toward $35 if there is no announcement.
If there is an announcement, I would expect a similar premium to what GMCR received over an above the $52 rumored price, perhaps 25%-50%, the upper limit being in the $70 range.
Is is possible for SODA management to somehow get through this conference call without really addressing the rumors satisfactorily? I just can't see that. I see it as better to totally dismiss the rumors and pitch the company's strategy as better, but that also means the share price takes a hit because the numbers are not going to be good, good being defined as exceeding previous guidance by a substantial amount.
I believe it is also very possible that any potential suitor knows the above and therefore knows that SODA might take a big hit when nothing is announced and thereby puts them in a better negotiating position.
Any suitor that comes around with SODA in the $30s can take the position that their BOD and shareholders will not put up with a significant premium. So, if SODA drops back into the $30s, then $50s is less likely.
I feel as though this management has dug itself into a real hole by letting these rumors get out there.
Hey, your not supposed to have that kind of food at every meal. Sometimes you should mix it up with a good t-bone, potato and a martini and some cheesecake for dessert or maybe a pork tenderloin, mashed potatoes and a hot fudge sundae over a brownie.
It's going to come down to which system is preferred, single serve or liter. If you assume that the market penetration of home systems reaches say 10% over several years, the top two brands will probably have at least a 75% share of the market (say 7.5% penetration). That is usually the case.
Say SODA is less preferred and is second and is beaten 2 or 3 to 1 by Keurig Cold, that would still take SODA to maybe 2% to 3% penetration in US, maybe a 100% to 200% increase.
You can apply whatever guesses you want, but reasonableness suggests something like above unless SODA runs into serious financial stress.
It could also be that penetration goes to 15-25% and SODA wins and ends up with maybe a 12-18% penetration. Who knows.
"The pe for 2012 is actually 18x-19x adjusted earnings and most likely 10x-11x 2013"
SODA is now trading at about 20 x trailing 12 months earnings.
How do you look at that and think there's nothing wrong here?
You call me a loser because I call management to task to explain how they are going to change things to get something done for us?
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome. That would be insanity in a vacuum. Given the changing environment, I don't know what to call it, but SODA just keeps on doing the same thing. Only the results seem to be getting worse.
Mt guess, my hope, is that members of the BOD are thinking and saying the same as me.
You said this may 11, 2012:
"Yes, we still have the stink of GMCR on us. Plus the market sucks. Soda is a long term investment. That is all there is to it."
The DJI was at 12, 820 (up 28% as of yesterday) that day. SODA closed at 35.44. (up 13% thru yesterday).
Tell us what you consider "longterm".
Did you believe that over the next two years that the DJI would have more than double the return of SODA?
At what point do you look at management and ask them what their goal is for us, the investors, and how and when they expect to achieve that goal?
" No, I suspect they can wait before dotting the 'i's and crossing the 't's before they announce any news they want to keep until closer to time to report"
Why? Why wait? Why chance a leak, a law suit? Give me a good reason to wait for the CC.
Yes, I believe that the deal was technically consummated within a very short, legal, period of that CC.
Negotiations are not certainties, so you can wait. But agreement, an excited letter of intent or any kind of contract are too material not to release as soon as practical. Could they have held off a few days before signing, yes, I suppose. But why would SODA watch its stock sit in the whole for week after week if they could announce this?
Hell, I hope you're right, but I truly doubt it. My belief is they can't reach terms with SODA management and/or BOD. The other possibility is just really bad, that they just aren't interested in what SODA has. Give me a third possibility.
They are not allowed to hold back news of that type. That's jail time violation. Therefore, there is no deal as of this moment. Therefore there will be no major announcement at the CC.
I've listened to 12 ccs over the last three years and have never heard good "news" on the CC, the kind that really moves share price. Maybe someone else can remember. The only news that moved the stock has been negative, bad earnings report and reduced guidance. In the summer of 2011 the stock lost most of its value after that CC, more than 50%. There have been beats that moved the stock up for very short periods, usually less than a day. All you have to do is look at the chart to know this.
SODA, as an investment is in deep trouble. You have to be deaf, dumb and blind not to know this.
Just hitting the estimates or just beating and sticking with recent guidance means a scalping, not a haircut. Any kind of miss or disappointing guidance and we will see $20s, something I used to laugh at when bashers would say it.
We have major overhangs right now that we didn't have three years ago. There was no competition then. Now there is serious competition backed by major players. There was no significant Palestinian problem 3 years ago. Now there is. There had been no misses. Now we have missed by a mile and the only news is more of the same which if you are skeptical about this company makes you think that the numbers will be more of the same. We can't seem to make a deal, which if you are an observer suggests either we have nothing anyone really wants or we're as wholes who are impossible to deal with.
At some point you have to believe that management needs to be changed. I think that point is upon us.
Go ahead, red thumb me, like that will somehow change the truth.
"Yes, and it will likely be announced on the call."
You don't really believe it will impact share price, do you? It's already reflected in the price.
I don't believe anything that is said at the CC will impact share price positively. Given that they must must halt trading and announce as soon as any major transaction between SODA and any possible suitor or partner is agreed to, that won't be announced. Nobody really cares about what SODA does or will do. They only care about earnings and future earnings and all that will be put online before the CC.
The CCs never help SODA. They almost always hurt because they are not impressive. The heavy accents hurt and they are always making excuses for misses and low guidance.Recent guidance has basically discounted SODA future discounted cash flow a year or two. That's why todays targets are now back to where they were more than a year ago. What will SODA say to change that. IMO, nothing.
What the CC will do is reinforce the fact that there is no pending deal and that will probably get the last few who bought in for that potential out.
SODA's sales keep growing, not as fast as I thought they would and the velocity is definitely slowing. Without a major change, the kind that a major partner brings, don't expect any rebound in share price. If no real news, share price will most likely hit new 52 weeks lows , probably by end of May.
This is one of those cases where you can hope for the be, but should plan for the worst.
You make me think of a person looking through their window at an outside thermometer and then asking someone if it's warm or cold outside. As Hillary says, what difference does it make? In 8 days we get the real numbers.
We were incredibly mislead last quarter by the retail store action thinking that those sales were going to give us a great 4th quarter and instead we lost 25% share value within days of the earnings report.
Rather than pay attention to posters trying to get people to buy or sell on non information, lets just wait a week and see what really went down.
It won't explode. THere are safety devices involved. However, you will get the spigot all sticky and syrupy and eventually ruin the machine.
If PEP believed that home carbonation on a large scale was inevitable and that SODA had the best product, why wouldn't they have jumped and done a deal to get the year step ahead of KO? I see it that simply. Perhaps it is much more complicated, but it seems obvious to me that PEP could have been 10 yards down the field while KO was still kocking around with Keurig cold.
Yeah. I tried it once and never again. I'm kidding. I just was expecting something really tasty because I really like mango. Perhaps others will go for it.
You're probably right , that Burgh can find the info somewhere else. But, there is something about Seth's attitude. This is supposed to be a casual conversation board. If you know something because of your background and experience you come here and share it. You don't sell it and treat don't who won't pay with disdain.
I don't know the details of SODA relationship with each retailer. Perhaps because BBB has been there for so long and always has given SODA great display, they get advance placement. If you knew, would you share that info here or tell someone to go find out on their own?
You should scrap the whipped cream, add vodka and brandy and drink it yourself. Just kidding. You don't really need to scrap the whipped cream.
Was not good. I ordered this on line with a large batch of other flavors. About 40 calories per serving. I was excited to try it because the Diet Orange Mango was unbelievably good. However, it tasted like watered down carbonated juice, IMO. I suppose that's what it is. My thought was that the essences tasted about as good and cost a lot less. You can't win em all.
I also got diet grape, diet Ocean Spray Cranberry and Diet Ocean Spray Raspberry Cranberry. All were excellent. I have to say that the Ocean Spray Diet Cranberry Raspberry was superior to the Sodastream same flavor. I think that partnership with Ocean Spray was a very good idea.