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SodaStream International Ltd. (SODA) Message Board

martinitony 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 19, 2015 1:16 PM Member since: Jul 13, 2000
  • Reply to

    Analyst says $9 target?

    by martinitony Mar 19, 2015 8:26 AM
    martinitony martinitony Mar 19, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    Well it doesn't look like I'm missing anything. My sense is the analyst is playing the momentum downward, nothing more. The target makes no other sense. You just can't do a discounted cash flow analysis and come up with $9/share. Over time it's always about cash flow.

  • Reply to

    Analyst says $9 target?

    by martinitony Mar 19, 2015 8:26 AM
    martinitony martinitony Mar 19, 2015 9:02 AM Flag

    Yeah, sure, but I'd still like to see cash flow projections that could possibly support such a low target. I don't believe they exist.
    My sense is that if anything, CHK, at these current stock price levels, is a potential acquisition target. I don't think it could get to $9 without being acquired.
    Basing low future stock price on assumed lower gas prices is a reckless as projecting increased stock price on assumed higher gas prices.

  • martinitony by martinitony Mar 19, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    Am I missing something here? Cash flow from operations is about a billion a quarter. This guys target is $9, about a $6 billion capitalization. That's about 1 1/2 years cash flow. Can someone explain this to me? Seriously.

  • Reply to

    SODA probably in the range

    by nmnmike Feb 24, 2015 1:16 PM
    martinitony martinitony Feb 24, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Was it up today because smart people know what's going to happen tomorrow or because smart people don't know whats going to happen.

  • Reply to

    Soda/PepsiCaps

    by goldenseth Feb 5, 2015 4:55 PM
    martinitony martinitony Feb 23, 2015 9:14 PM Flag

    The thing about New Jersey is bogus. Given they could send merchandise like this most anywhere, why there? Oh, so that you could post they sent it there because thats where they send closeouts. Your eyes must be brown.

  • Reply to

    Too bad Private Equity cant remove Birnbaum

    by jk4763 Feb 23, 2015 2:25 PM
    martinitony martinitony Feb 23, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    Are you nominating him to be CEO or to take Birnbaum out? I'm okay with either.

  • Geez, it was really bad. The quote from Birnbaum was used to suggest no possibility of PEP deal. The entire article, probably hatchet job, but hey, it's the New York Times.
    Given that article and the incredibly low volume lately, a buck down is really no big surprise.
    I wonder if there is anything the company can show on Wednesday that will matter. My guess is that CNBC won't even mention SODA today or tomorrow and probably just in passing Wednesday.
    It's going to take a miracle on the earnings front or an unknown on the announcement front to move this stock price up.
    Just earning money now doesn't matter. It might set a floor, but i'd guess that an Israeli company with low to no growth expectation will sell for 5-6 times earnings with trading thinning to under 100,000 shares a day.
    It's hard to believe it could really get this bad, but not that hard when you realize that the BOD has kept this incompetent CEO in place through the entire downfall of this company.

  • Reply to

    Not very positive for SODA

    by binkinc Feb 23, 2015 7:35 AM
    martinitony martinitony Feb 23, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    Odd, the timing on this article, given that in three days they would have been able to incorporate the earnings report and conference call into their article. Gives a paranoid sense that there was a reason to get this article out before that information was available in order to affect stock price before that news release.

  • martinitony by martinitony Feb 14, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    Some of my bottles have now exceeded their use dates. They still seem to work okay. Anyone throw out a bottle yet?
    We were wrong. Back in 2011 when I bought in I believed it made sense to buy what you understood. So I bought a starter kit as as I would a stock report.
    I loved the product and believed this was a slam dump investment. I still use the same machine a couple times a day.
    I was wrong. Investing in what you know can be a disaster.
    I see people who still post here, Golden and others, who seem to act as if their thoughts a couple years ago don't matter. Golden and many others were completely, totally wrong. Yet they come here and act as if just because the stock has dropped 70% from times when they were still buyers, it just doesn't matter.
    Don't pay attention to these false profits.
    Don't even pay attention to me. Look at the chart. This company is over. In a couple years the last stop will take place. Buy out at a few percent or bankruptcy.
    It's been real fun. I can tell by the look on your faces.

  • Reply to

    johnlastnameq you are a complete idiot...

    by binkinc Feb 11, 2015 7:44 PM
    martinitony martinitony Feb 12, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    Here's why I'm mocking you. SODA has historically not run with the typical resistance and support being major factors. Volume has been low for many months. So that what has happened lately, in the face of significant news, will offer almost no resistance to a major breakout, should it come.
    SODA, if it struck a PEP deal, would see volume of 5-10 million a day for 2-4 days, dwarfing all the volume of the last couple of months.
    If nothing much happens, that is no significant news and no significant earnings surprise, then SODA will likely continue to drift lower as it has for many moons. That's my TA and fundamental analysis after watching this stock for almost 4 years.
    My best guess is more of the same as SODA continues with the same management.

  • Reply to

    johnlastnameq you are a complete idiot...

    by binkinc Feb 11, 2015 7:44 PM
    martinitony martinitony Feb 12, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    Yes,there has been a lot of that going around lately. I have an ointment I use on any divergence be it positive, negative or a neutral boomerang divergence. It will correct any of those issues.

  • Reply to

    johnlastnameq you are a complete idiot...

    by binkinc Feb 11, 2015 7:44 PM
    martinitony martinitony Feb 12, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    Yeah, you're right. The target is $24 unless it overshoots $24 and the target becomes $30 or even $40. Any TA guy knows that.

  • Reply to

    johnlastnameq you are a complete idiot...

    by binkinc Feb 11, 2015 7:44 PM
    martinitony martinitony Feb 12, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    What are you laughing at. Clearly he's right. The support level is now about 19. It used to be 21, no 28, no 36, no 51, no 56, no 67 , but now, no doubt, $19 unless it goes below that. Then it might be something else. Any TA expert knows that.

  • At the peak, summer 2013, the rumors took SODA from about $55-$95. That's $800 million ($40 x 20mm shares). Apparently, this rumor seems to have peaked at about a $23 million cap (20mm x $1.13).
    If PEP announced tomorrow that they were buying in, I imagine we'd see a move bigger than $23 million, but even 4 times that would only take the price to around $24-$25/share.
    Great job by management really creating shareholder value.

  • Reply to

    PepsiCo's CC just ended...

    by theburgh Feb 11, 2015 8:44 AM
    martinitony martinitony Feb 11, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    Not a surprise. One of three things are possible.
    1. No negotiations-no mention
    2. Negotiations going on-no mention
    3. There's a deal-already would have been mentioned
    I guess the fourth would be no deal , no mention, but I find it unlikely that no deal wouldn't have been affected in earlier price movement.

  • martinitony martinitony Jan 16, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    A newbie, obviously. You just don't know how ridiculous your post sounds.
    Think about it.
    You have a company with falling sales, disappearing earnings and an earnings report about to come out. What could cause it to fall to $12 in the short run other than disastrous earnings? And then pray tell, what would then cause it to go to $35 over the next year or two?
    It's now worse than the broken stock it was and still is. It's a broken company with a BOD that can't or won't bite the bullet and get rid of the current management.

  • Reply to

    See you in the teens, since 40+

    by noworriesboys Jan 15, 2015 11:08 AM
    martinitony martinitony Jan 15, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    No, no credit. You're still as whole.

  • Reply to

    LOOKS LIKE MY 18 IS HERE

    by rlolsen_1999 Jan 14, 2015 10:56 AM
    martinitony martinitony Jan 15, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    Gotta be stuff we just don't know about. I said a while back that if it went to $18 it would go to $8. I believe that still. It's truly hard to believe we've seen this stock drop from $79 to $18 over three years. My sense is that SODA is on the verge of complete collapse, that none of management's plans and strategies are effective and that situation is reflected in the collapse of the stock price.
    There is no current relationship between prior sale/earning performance and stock price. Therefore, we should assume something else is the cause of that price relationship to prior performance. The picture is very ugly. Don't expect yearend numbers to help.

  • Reply to

    What no one wants to say

    by martinitony Jan 8, 2015 9:02 AM
    martinitony martinitony Jan 8, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    It's hard to believe how really dumb you are. You and the rest of the SODA believers have been told, by their actions, not their mouths, that KO and DPS believe single serve is the way to go. Yet, in your stupidity and arrogance you choose to ignore what those writing checks for hundreds of millions are telling you. GFY you as whole.

  • martinitony by martinitony Jan 8, 2015 9:02 AM Flag

    KO, DPS, PEP et. al. don't really believe in the Sodastream model, i.e. one liter at a time. They absolutely believe in the GMCR model, one cup brewed at a time. That's probably because it has worked for brewed coffee and for cold servings one can at a time in the trillions over the years.
    You would think that SODA would accept this and create a machine to satisfy these guys. Remember, SODA is light years ahead of GMCR with regard to CO2 distribution.
    It's hard to believe that a Sodastream machine with some sort of attachment, an adapter of some kind, couldn't be designed to do individual servings, but then what do I know about technology? What i do know is that management at SODA has taken the position that larger bottles make more sense. Perhaps, because they can't advance the ball on the individual serving, they need to take that position.

SODA
20.08+0.28(+1.41%)2:07 PMEDT