It's interesting the way you phrased that. "This could be dead $ for a long time. " This statement suggests that the dead money period is temporary and hopefully that's true. However, that isn't what the market believes. If it did, the price would reflect that.
Suppose for example that the market believed there would be a two year lull and then the eps and price would move back to where it "should" be. If a discount factor were applied to some "should be" price, I doubt that it would come back at $38 unless the should be price today was only $50-$60.
What I'm saying is that it's not only the dead money aspect, but it is lack of confidence in management to deliver on revenue and earnings, to be able to deal with would-be suitors and to execute a plan well.
Doc, the management has failed and needs to leave if you ever expect to see this stock price recover and perhaps for this company to even survive.
How's the stock price working for you , dumb as? Your inability to look at the facts as they they are is remarkable. An incompetent management tells you TV doesn't work, but they hire for millions a top tier international actress. Huh? Does that work with the words that Birnbaum said to you? You tell me to get lost and that's your solution? Huh? You have displayed ignorance and stupidity and you're a schmuck. GFY.
Anyone seen one lately. I can't remember the last time I saw one. Was it the Superbowl?
It's 86 outside and a little muggy here today. Father's Day is coming in a few weeks. It seems like the company has thrown in the towel. Nobody I know shops at Walmart, at least not regularly.
I haven't seen a BBB brochure with SODA lately also.
What do you think?
I suspect the daily, non stop decline is fueled by knowledge by some of Q2 sales numbers. That's usually the case. If you look back at Q4, you see the decline that preceded the lower guidance announcement by about a month. This is making me somewhat nervous. I'm beginning to doubt there will be any positive news for the quarter.
The lower the price goes the less likely a deal as any suitor will not be able to justify the premium this management will demand. My guess is that management will be terminated, there will be a secondary and a deal will be reached in two years when the stock price recovers to a more respectable level.
When Birnbaum shot off his mouth at the CC he might as well have been screaming "The people just don't get it." He has to go, but apparently not enough board members know it yet.
We're in a real bad situation here. Best bet is to probably sell, but it's hard to do after being in so long. You want to believe something will change quickly, but I just don't see it.
A couple months ago I thought we'd have Pepsi/SODA displays out for Father's Day and now that is hopeless and SBUX looks hopeless too. You'd have to have been a real mule to blow the opportunity that was likely presented and somehow these guys did it.
A basher will put up a headline that attracts negative attention. People start responding and the headline is up there over and over because people want to disagree. Seeing the phrase "terrible product" over and over hurts the company when a newbie comes to the board and sees it over and over. So, if you want to respond with a defense, start a new topic with a headline that is positive, not negative.
I began a discussion about "Walmart Displays". If I wanted to bash SODA I might have said "SODA WALMART DISPLAY SUCKS". Then you might have seen that headline 25 times.
I have an issue with current management not with the products. I have never deliberately bashed SODA nor have I ever been short SODA.
See, he's a basher. He now has three postings that terrible product because you guys responded to him. Validation of the concept and products has happened and his post is #$%$. So, why respond? Don't.
Did you forget to take your meds? You are acting extremely OCD. Schemp was a moron. I think he could add and maybe subtract, but I'm pretty sure he couldn't multiply, divide, differentiate or integrate. You seem to be having a problem differentiating today. Maybe you should go back to sleep for a couple hours.
I was just looking at the charts, too. Could be reversal pattern forming. Wouldn't surprise me to finish up today if they can't get it down any lower over the next hour.
How could they have been ahead of the curve with this one? Who knew 4th qtr. was a disaster before it finished? Remember, the NPD numbers looked good.
The only good thing about this is that it is hard to believe the news could actually get worse.
If I was going to apply a happy face to this, I suppose i could come up with the perfect storm scenario.
1. Bad Christmas everywhere in retail, so they slashed prices to dump inventory.
2. Then a miserable winter, inventories needed reduction and again bad retail causing qtr1 to be off.
3. GMCR/KO announcement buffeted by a CEO who sounds like a mule.
Those things taken together would stun most analysts. Nevertheless, counting on this CEO and SODA to overcome is not something I recommend for my grandchildren's' college funds. It's about that simple.
No, you seem to be missing the point. The analyst is making judgments based on recent performance, expectations in the near to interim term and the competition from others. Your judgments are based on wishful thinking, thinking that this CEO who brought you two disastrous quarters and a relationship with Walmart that hasn't added a cent to the share price are now going to somehow perform magically and why doesn't the analyst realize this.
Apparently they just don't get how enthusiastic Birnbaum is. They seem to be missing the point altogether. Enthusiasm and feeling should trump performance and projections any day.
Besides a buyout of some type, there is another way to get the stock price moving back up and that is to get new management, serious guys with significant experience with PEP, KO or other retail.
$35 target means $25 before they upgrade again without major changes.
There is a problem you are probably not familiar with. It might have been true that SODA could have just kept doing what they were doing 4 years ago and the KO/GMCR entry wouldn't cause a major problem. However, SODA is no longer that much smaller company. If sales in the US really stall out when GMCR enters, SODA will begin a reverse snowball here. They will lose shelf space and at some point the economies of scale that have benefited SODA will be lost not to a small company but to a company with , now, much greater overhead and greater capital intensity. If SODA is outsold by 3,4, 5 to one many chains will drop SODA products and the snowball continues. There is a new factory…etc.
I tell you that the picture is bleak unless Keurig Cold is a failed product or unless SODA can gain share by partnering with a PEP, SBUX etc. This is a classic situation. The reason share price has started falling again, IMO, is due to the rumor effect diminishing. Betting on SODA by itself is just not a popular bet right now for the reasons I've outlined above.
Your insistence on my changing investment vehicles is really just you covering your ears and screaming, "I'm not listening."
Take another look at the chart. 1, 2 and three years. Just do it. The chart is telling that something is very wrong and you are refusing to acknowledge it.
Something needs to change drastically and it's not likely going to be dramatic increases in revenues and net income in the near future.
Perhaps if SODA had drafted Johnny Football, I'd have the kind of confidence you do.
I am in for only one reason, the possibility of a buyout.
I have been here for just over three years and the company has really let me down as well as all its investors. That's undeniable. So shut your mouth about my being here.
I write these posts because I hope members of the board occasionally read these posts and might change this company's path before it's too late.
Those of you who actually feel alright with how this company has been run for the last year or so actually baffle me. It seems totally irrational to look at recent quarterly reports and share price and GMCR/KO and just assume it will all work out if SODA just plods along this same path. I am now at about 75% that SODA will not survive the next 24 months.
"Too much news out there that will drive this one higher in the short and long term!"
You're dreaming. The only news that will boost SODA is a buy in from SBUX or PEP or some facsimile. It will take another 6-12 months before any operational news helps. On top of that every time KO or GMCR mentions the new Keurig cold, share price will take a hit.
Note how 20 feet story has done nothing to help share price.
Note how many articles now mention slow down in US.
The tide, from an investment standpoint has turned solidly against this company and it is verifiable every time you look at a chart.
It's worth repeating. Only a deal with a major will turn this stock in the next 6 months and probably the next year or more.
The interpretation makes perfect sense. If they can get a satisfactory deal with SODA, they probably will unless there is already something under wraps that looks like it might work as well or better. If they can't get a satisfactory deal, they will keep trying to get it done on their own or find something that they believe works as well.
In the meantime everything seems to be working out for potential suitors of SODA or any part of SODA.
SODA's performance is crashing, the cash is running lower each month and management is so sure of themselves that either SODA will have to succeed on their own or the parts that are worth anything will be picked up at 10 cents on the dollar in a year or two.
If you don't think that what I describe is true, ask yourself where SODA was financially a year ago and where the stock price was and what made sense as a deal then versus now. Each passing month drops SODA value as this management plays hard to get.
Every shareholder should be complaining bitterly about the share price and demanding that the BOD get management in place that can either get a deal done while the company still has value or management that Wall Street believes can't fail.
If there is a secondary to salvage the company that would represent total failure to this point. We would likely see $20s and not see $50s again for a couple more years.
Yeah, I heard it all before, if I'm not in it for the long run, then sell. Those of you saying such stupid things would follow a nit wit into a mine field.
You too are ignorant. Do your square miles equal diameters and circumferences, too, dumb az.
I will repeat, grocery stores are neighborhood stores typically. Large discount houses such as Walmart and Target are regionally located, typically. You can add Lowe's and Home Depot to your regional type stores.
I am not interested in how many Walmarts are near you. Now, GFY
Walmart, Target and BBB are not considered neighborhood locations. You just don't understand commercial real estate. They are regional, typically near interchanges or on major highways.
Most supermarket chains locate at neighborhood locations, on the main thoroughfares, but usually just a few miles apart so that most people can park a reasonable distance from the entrance.
So Kroger, CVS and Walgreens are found in neighborhoods. Sure, they are also found in regional locations, but as an example, a city that might have 8 Walmarts in its MSA might have 25 Kroger stores and 30 CVS stores etc.
In Columbus, Ohio most homes are within 2 miles of a Kroger store but more like 4 miles of Walmart or Target.
No matter, the marketing plan still seems a little farblunget to me. Too many directions. I suppose we could attribute it to growing pains, but clearly we should assume the marketing has failed in the US or we should assume the products just aren't going to sell here. Seems like one or the other is true.
I like Sodastream products because most taste good and they are fun to make. I like getting them as close to where I live as possible, but so far they are only sold at regional locations, Walmart, Target, Staples,BBB etc. as opposed to neighborhood locations such as Kroger, CVS and Walgreens.
I am told I should want to use the product because it is good for the environment, but do people make their food and beverage choices based on the environment. Less sugar and calories is easy to understand and something parents and individuals might be interested in. Environment seems like an unlikely basis for selecting food, maybe biodegradable garbage bags, but not food.
If I had Scarlett Johansen selling a product that had less sugar and calories I'd have her telling woman they could look like her if they used Sodastream and men that they could be sleeping with women that looked like her if they gave the wife a Sodastream.
If I was running Sodastream I'd focus on the kind of people who shop at Williams and Sonoma and BBB etc., not Walmart, because the two types of customers are so different I'd have to have one marketing plan for one type and another marketing plan for the other and that would make my marketing costs and efforts seem chaotic.