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Sequenom Inc. Message Board

marty.chilberg 21 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 1:10 PM Member since: Dec 30, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Breakout chart

    by heychris222 Mar 23, 2015 12:18 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Mar 26, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    Nice bounce back today. Would love to see some volume to confirm but solid nonetheless

  • Reply to

    Marty?

    by colleen6505 Mar 24, 2015 11:44 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Mar 25, 2015 9:30 PM Flag

    Hi Colleen-Sorry you have had such a hard time with this stock. I've had my issues as well so don't claim to be a great expert on how to invest/trade this issue. I have been able to accumulate a nice sized position now with a basis at $2.80 so am willing to give the stock some room. My fundamental reason for getting back involved is:
    1) Balance sheet is much improved. Any risk of default on the debt is now minimal versus being real a while back.
    2) The write down of intangible assets has the impact of improving eps going forward.
    3) The parts of the business that are declining (SMS, war support, IP licensing, nav app, are now quite small when compared to what is growing (ESInet/NG911, cyber security, LBS platforms, satellite bandwidwith)
    4) There are new revenue opportunities that are incremental to #3. More of a C16 add but they have enough growth in C15 to bridge. These are primarily connectivity related: car, health, city, etc.
    5) Every year Mr Tose Class B shares are slowly sold off. It used to be around 10% and is now down to 7.9%. As this happens it is more shareholder friendly and opens up M&A.
    6) Activist board is a very good thing. They will at a minimum force company to watch margin operating expense choices which should improve margins. And it's more unlikely the would do any new acquisitions. They also usually attract other MM's to invest which is what I believe led to the recent rally.

    Hope this helps, but make your own decisions. This has been a very challenging stock to own/trade and I don't claim to have any particular advantage other than my research.

  • marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Mar 25, 2015 8:43 PM Flag

    Bottom line for me: Activist board is my coin flip. They will likely drive improved margins and were likely the reason for the shut down in China. They probably have many other areas were spending/efficiency can be improved. If they can improve gross margins and operating margins in addition to growing the top line, the valuation could improve significantly.

    Also worth noting that they only have 11% of their revenues from intl markets so the currency headwinds that most are predicting for C15 will be minimal. And they missed the bull market of past 2 yrs and right now funds are rotating into laggards. Short term but still a trend that could benefit.

    GL all. Drop by the other board to see any additional posts.

  • marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Mar 25, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    Hi all. Saw the comment so thought I'd weigh in. FWIW I post on TSYS on bridgetunnelinvestor so don't drop by here very often.

    Wish I had a better feel for TCS but I'm glad to let you know where I am...I built my position back up to 50k shs and I'm holding for now. The run up over the past 6 weeks was pretty impressive at around 35%. That appears to have been driven by investors rather than short covers or traders. I suspect the activist funds are lining up in hopes that our new friends on the BOD can bring returns.

    Bottom line for me is that this is still undervalued but I've said that for years. The premise for undervaluation though has changed from a declining revenue and earnings stream to what appears to be a 2-3 year growth cycle. Still show me, but they are starting to show it. The pullback today was meaningless. Pretty close to a standard 1st level fibonacci retracement of 24%. Stopped right at $3.50 which I thought would provide some support. Will be watching going forward but have a pullback is usually healthy for a sustained rally.

    A few thoughts on the 10K/CC:
    - guidance is as strong as we've seen for 2-3 yrs.
    - War support revenues was the largest component of govt service rev. Dropped 42% last year and now it is lower than cyber security which grew 22% Y/Y. Always good to see a growth line larger than one that is declining. Also the sat bandwidth revenue sounded very upbeat on call which is another growth component of gvt svcs.
    - I don't know if I believe the large govt prime awards are going to ramp up hard but it certainly appears to be an upside opportunity.
    - Confused about the commercial flat guidance. With all the growth markets they are in, this seems way to cautious even with the reduction of china work for hire and the 1x catch up revenue recog,
    Backlog amount to be recog over 12 mths was up 16% Y/Y. More than the guidance.
    -Margins improving. Opex controls are showing up and with new BOD should help control.

  • Reply to

    New Govt Agency CTIIC for Cyber Security

    by marty.chilberg Feb 19, 2015 3:43 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Feb 20, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    Take a look at the jobs that were opened at Ft Meade with the CIG job code. CIG stands for Cyber Intelligence Group and is where they do training, measurement and evaluation of cyber security for DoD/NSA

  • WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. government is creating a new agency to monitor cybersecurity threats, pooling and analyzing information on a spectrum of risks, a senior Obama administration official said on Tuesday.

    The Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center (CTIIC) will be an “intelligence center that will ‘connect the dots’ between various cyber threats to the nation so that relevant departments and agencies are aware of these threats in as close to real time as possible,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

    Obama has moved cybersecurity to the top of his 2015 agenda after recent hacking attacks against Sony Pictures, Home Depot Inc, Anthem Inc and Target Corp and the federal government itself.

    The Democratic president sees it as an area of cooperation with the Republican-led Congress.

    Various federal agencies have cybersecurity components, including the National Security Agency, Department of Homeland Security, the FBI and the CIA.

    The Obama administration is trying to connect the agencies “so that there’s one belly button for the entire U.S. government,” Shawn Henry, president of CrowdStrike cybersecurity agency, said on the CBS “This Morning” program.

  • Reply to

    Crazy good recovery morning

    by coffeeteaorme39 Jan 23, 2015 10:28 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 23, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Agreed. Comments today seemed helpful. Despite headline of $100 not being seen again, the statements that OPEC has been weakened, they are not pricing oil to compete with fracking and that some countries will have to cut production soon because of price all seem to be providing support.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 23, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    It's worth noting that so far there have only been a few hundred page views of the article. Usually in the 2nd day I see 1500-2000. Shows how little interest there is in TSYS. It will take some real earnings progress for there to be increased investor interest IMO.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 23, 2015 8:18 AM Flag

    Thanks. It was refreshing to hear how how much they were open to discussing product plans that haven't been announced. For instance their work on a safety solution for the connected car and that they are working on something in the financial sector.

  • Reply to

    Wow...

    by flhtcbluesman Jan 22, 2015 11:05 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 22, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    Curious about the comparison to BBEP. They both appear to have a similar debt to equity ratio and similar operating cash to dividend ratio.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 22, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    Infrequently Asked Questions: TeleCommunication Systems, Inc article published today on SA paid subscriber site. Full access tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 22, 2015 9:01 AM Flag

    Agreed., I'm not sure if this article will feel any different as it is still all about the hope that they can deliver on their investments and expectations. It at least lets investors hear directly from non-financial execs about their vision. Submitted to SA last night and am waiting for response.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 21, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    This stock has been a challenging one. Makes it hard to believe that the future is going to be different but the pieces and focus all appear to be there. I'm just finishing the final edits of my interview article and plan to submit tomorrow. If SA decides not to publish it, I'll put it in my blog.

  • Reply to

    Thanks Marty,

    by budro10401 Jan 19, 2015 1:57 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 20, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    As usual it's unclear what you are talking about So, I'll assume you are referencing my opinion of the substance you provide in your comments. To be clear, my view on that hasn't changed one iota.

  • Reply to

    Thanks Marty,

    by budro10401 Jan 19, 2015 1:57 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 19, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    Glad you and the others commenting found the comments useful. While I still think the growth in C15 will be hard to come by and the company needs to decide how best to invest the capital infusion from the agreement, it's very clear to me that this was a far superior outcome than the path of staying independent. My calculation is that this deal has a NPV of around $200m to SQNM. Pretty reasonable trade off to gain that economic value in exchange for reduced risk/reward in the go alone strategy.

  • Reply to

    It will either EXPLODE or PLUNGE in 2015

    by passionman_1361 Dec 30, 2014 10:26 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 7, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    I put in a limit "all or none" order to buy for 10k at $2.90 when I left the house this morning. It didn't fill so not enough selling pressure to get the volume to fill. Wish it had but will see what tomorrow looks like.

  • marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 7, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    NP. Wish I had more insight but not an area I've spent any time researching. I did note that Nokomis is unusual in that they appear to have a philosophy of concentrating their positions which results in most investments representing 2-5% of their total portfolio. This increase could have been a result of new money coming into the fund and their decision to increase WYY weighting. Doesn't really answer the Q about whether the 10% level caused them any concerns.

    Nice task order today though again it is somewhat misleading with the focus on total potential value rather than the funding. They really will need to start providing guidance soon as too many will miss this distinction and the PR doesn't even disclose the components. Gotta love the pace of progress though.

  • marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 6, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    I can't say I have any great answers. My off the cuff reaction is that any decision to acquire over 10% of a company would likely only occur if the investor was interested in being an activist OR if they had a strong long term belief in the prospects and management and had no intent to divest over a prolonged period of time.

    It is worth noting that this is a VERY small market cap company so even a 10% stake is going to be a pretty small slice for most funds. One of the primary reasons many funds put in size or share price restrictions. Just doesn't make sense to do a lot of due diligence on companies that just can't move the needle much for your fund.

    On thing I can really say for sure is that I've never seen it take as a bearish indicator.

  • Reply to

    what is going on?

    by translationhell Jan 5, 2015 2:05 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 5, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    Meg Tirrell ‏@megtirrell 4m4 minutes ago
    Dow Jones reporting Goldman advising $NPSP on sale process, in early stages; deal could be worth more than $4.5B

  • Reply to

    Any reason not to buy?

    by waveno1 Jan 4, 2015 12:27 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 4, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    Hey GGrail,
    Always good to hear from you and read your thoughtful comments. I don't mean to sound too cautious on WYY as their top line trend is from the bottom left to the upper right. Never a bad thing to pay attention to small transformative opportunities that show that pattern. Just hope investors understand that this is pretty early in the game and it may take longer to play out than they think. Hope you have a great '15!

SQNM
3.95Mar 31 4:00 PMEDT