Wed, Jan 28, 2015, 2:37 AM EST - U.S. Markets open in 6 hrs 53 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

marty.chilberg 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 23, 2015 1:03 PM Member since: Dec 30, 2009
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Crazy good recovery morning

    by coffeeteaorme39 Jan 23, 2015 10:28 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 23, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Agreed. Comments today seemed helpful. Despite headline of $100 not being seen again, the statements that OPEC has been weakened, they are not pricing oil to compete with fracking and that some countries will have to cut production soon because of price all seem to be providing support.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 23, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    It's worth noting that so far there have only been a few hundred page views of the article. Usually in the 2nd day I see 1500-2000. Shows how little interest there is in TSYS. It will take some real earnings progress for there to be increased investor interest IMO.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 23, 2015 8:18 AM Flag

    Thanks. It was refreshing to hear how how much they were open to discussing product plans that haven't been announced. For instance their work on a safety solution for the connected car and that they are working on something in the financial sector.

  • Reply to

    Wow...

    by flhtcbluesman Jan 22, 2015 11:05 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 22, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    Curious about the comparison to BBEP. They both appear to have a similar debt to equity ratio and similar operating cash to dividend ratio.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 22, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    Infrequently Asked Questions: TeleCommunication Systems, Inc article published today on SA paid subscriber site. Full access tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 22, 2015 9:01 AM Flag

    Agreed., I'm not sure if this article will feel any different as it is still all about the hope that they can deliver on their investments and expectations. It at least lets investors hear directly from non-financial execs about their vision. Submitted to SA last night and am waiting for response.

  • Reply to

    Hope Your Right......

    by mark7182002 Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 21, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    This stock has been a challenging one. Makes it hard to believe that the future is going to be different but the pieces and focus all appear to be there. I'm just finishing the final edits of my interview article and plan to submit tomorrow. If SA decides not to publish it, I'll put it in my blog.

  • Reply to

    Thanks Marty,

    by budro10401 Jan 19, 2015 1:57 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 20, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    As usual it's unclear what you are talking about So, I'll assume you are referencing my opinion of the substance you provide in your comments. To be clear, my view on that hasn't changed one iota.

  • Reply to

    Thanks Marty,

    by budro10401 Jan 19, 2015 1:57 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 19, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    Glad you and the others commenting found the comments useful. While I still think the growth in C15 will be hard to come by and the company needs to decide how best to invest the capital infusion from the agreement, it's very clear to me that this was a far superior outcome than the path of staying independent. My calculation is that this deal has a NPV of around $200m to SQNM. Pretty reasonable trade off to gain that economic value in exchange for reduced risk/reward in the go alone strategy.

  • Reply to

    It will either EXPLODE or PLUNGE in 2015

    by passionman_1361 Dec 30, 2014 10:26 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 7, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    I put in a limit "all or none" order to buy for 10k at $2.90 when I left the house this morning. It didn't fill so not enough selling pressure to get the volume to fill. Wish it had but will see what tomorrow looks like.

  • marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 7, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    NP. Wish I had more insight but not an area I've spent any time researching. I did note that Nokomis is unusual in that they appear to have a philosophy of concentrating their positions which results in most investments representing 2-5% of their total portfolio. This increase could have been a result of new money coming into the fund and their decision to increase WYY weighting. Doesn't really answer the Q about whether the 10% level caused them any concerns.

    Nice task order today though again it is somewhat misleading with the focus on total potential value rather than the funding. They really will need to start providing guidance soon as too many will miss this distinction and the PR doesn't even disclose the components. Gotta love the pace of progress though.

  • marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 6, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    I can't say I have any great answers. My off the cuff reaction is that any decision to acquire over 10% of a company would likely only occur if the investor was interested in being an activist OR if they had a strong long term belief in the prospects and management and had no intent to divest over a prolonged period of time.

    It is worth noting that this is a VERY small market cap company so even a 10% stake is going to be a pretty small slice for most funds. One of the primary reasons many funds put in size or share price restrictions. Just doesn't make sense to do a lot of due diligence on companies that just can't move the needle much for your fund.

    On thing I can really say for sure is that I've never seen it take as a bearish indicator.

  • Reply to

    what is going on?

    by translationhell Jan 5, 2015 2:05 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 5, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    Meg Tirrell ‏@megtirrell 4m4 minutes ago
    Dow Jones reporting Goldman advising $NPSP on sale process, in early stages; deal could be worth more than $4.5B

  • Reply to

    Any reason not to buy?

    by waveno1 Jan 4, 2015 12:27 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 4, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    Hey GGrail,
    Always good to hear from you and read your thoughtful comments. I don't mean to sound too cautious on WYY as their top line trend is from the bottom left to the upper right. Never a bad thing to pay attention to small transformative opportunities that show that pattern. Just hope investors understand that this is pretty early in the game and it may take longer to play out than they think. Hope you have a great '15!

  • Reply to

    Any reason not to buy?

    by waveno1 Jan 4, 2015 12:27 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 4, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    WYY is still in a valuation "discovery phase" for lots of reasons. Here are some of the reasons why I won't add to it unless there is a compelling change in fundamentals or price:
    1) They don't have the $1B in deals locked in. Similar to most government orders, the BPA is an authorization process not a funding decision. The funding decisions are the ones that lead to cash flows and recognized revenues, not the BPA or "options" that are frequently quoted in press releases.

    2) The operating risk/reward is uncertain and uncertainty leads to a price discount. They appear to be making the risk decision to increase their cost/infrastructure to handle expected growth. However the risk continues to be that they add cost and the revenue is pushed out or occurs with not enough gross margin to cover their investment.

    3) The balance sheet had a current ratio of 1.11 at Sept 30. Definitely a low number that is less safe than most investors would like. The $11.5m cash infusion was definitely needed despite the dilution it brought. That was probably the bare minimum though as their ratio will likely remain under 2 at 12/31. If they have addl losses in the 1H of C15, the risk of addl dilution will cause investors to remain cautious.

    4) Free Cash Flows were negative $2.5m over the past 6 months on revenues of $27m. Consensus estimated revenues in 1H-15 show about 20% sequential growth but I suspect the FCF's won't improve and could deteriorate somewhat. Hopefully some non-govt business gets booked soon that has better margins and if so, this story will change pretty quickly.

    I still think this company is going to be a good investment but it feels premature to put any serious money to work. Good luck

  • Reply to

    Question for the board

    by philoette Dec 12, 2014 10:55 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Dec 12, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Likewise!

  • Reply to

    Question for the board

    by philoette Dec 12, 2014 10:55 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Dec 12, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    I have no company specific insights but will give it a response. The BPA is akin to a contract vehicle that enables agencies to order, but doesn't ensure amount or timing. When you read company press releases about orders and options, investors should pay close attention to both. The order is funded and now in backlog. Options are just that. IMO the company is focusing too much on options as they build external excitement even though these are future possible orders with set prices only. They generally aren't funded or commited and can be cancelled. The company has some insight but not enough to provide solid guidance so they hide behind the analysts. Not good or bad as both approaches are seen, but with small companies that are not well followed, it is a challenge to say the least.

    Does Craig have access to management and do they "coach" him in what they are hearing from various agencies? Pretty likely though they can't provide selective disclosure so more anecdotal than substantial. He is also likely hearing from lots of other companies about govt funding and trends which adds to his ability to forecast. The biggest issue continues to be that these DOA orders have very low margins so any ramp to costs in anticipation of future delivery flow puts significant pressure on bottom line, even if the orders become funded. WYY needs some ancillary orders that are not govt so they can get some higher margin revenues before they will see much bottom line improvement. That's why I only have a starter position and won't add without some evidence of this happening.

    Not sure why some feel the need to bash those that are more fully committed but that's the internet and message boards. Everyone gets to be a bully or a rock star. GL

  • Reply to

    Bring On The Lawyers!!!

    by mark7182002 Dec 11, 2014 10:28 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Dec 11, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    Think Airbus has an incentive to settle?
    Less than two months after changing its name from Cassidian Communications, North American public-safety-communications vendor Airbus DS Communications is the subject of divestiture plans by its international parent company—Airbus Group—which has decided to focus its resources on aircraft-related industries.

    Under the “portfolio optimization” plan unveiled last week, Airbus Defense and Space defined space (launchers and satellites), military aircraft, missiles and related systems and services as its future core businesses. Non-core businesses, such as Airbus DS Communications and other public-safety-communications units, have been “identified as divestment candidates, as they do not fit the strategic goals” and “will have better chances for growth and market success in different ownership structures,” according to an Airbus Defense and Space press release.

  • Reply to

    an SC 13D has been filed

    by mccutcheon43 Nov 25, 2014 9:24 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Dec 11, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    LoL.

  • I'm prepping for an interview with Jay Whitehurst next week in anticipation of writing an article on the Commercial Segment of TSYS. Any recommended Q's to include? Leave them on my Seeking Alpha blog or bridgetunnelinvestor

CODI
16.50-0.12(-0.72%)Jan 27 4:02 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Apple Inc.
NASDAQTue, Jan 27, 2015 4:00 PM EST
Microsoft Corporation
NASDAQTue, Jan 27, 2015 4:00 PM EST
Informatica Corporation
NASDAQTue, Jan 27, 2015 4:00 PM EST