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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

marty.chilberg 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 25, 2016 1:13 PM Member since: Dec 30, 2009
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  • marty.chilberg by marty.chilberg Nov 23, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    I took a small position in CMTL after the selloff this am. I think there is a lot of untapped value in TSYS along with a bloated cost structure. Not a bad risk/reward with the stock down 10%:

    Positives
    - CMTL has solid cash flow
    - CMTL claims this is cash accretive and will have some solid synergies in two years
    - CMTL buying back stock
    - CMTL pays 5% dividend

    Negatives
    - CMTL has seen declining revenues
    - CMTL has exposure to oil segment
    - CMTL is quite small so integration will be risky/challenge

    Mark Jordan of Noble also follows CMTL and has a buy on them, He will likely do a bullish outlook with his recent buy upgrade on TSYS.

    Hope everyone had a reasonable outcome with TSYS!

  • Reply to

    Comtech a buy?

    by marty.chilberg Nov 23, 2015 10:43 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Nov 23, 2015 8:08 PM Flag

    Hey Adam-I probably won't have much time to analyze CMTL until early Dec. I did take a postiion today on the selloff open. Having a 10% haircut with a solid balance sheet and good dividend coverage along with a relatively small premium for TSYS was enough for me to take a flyer. Nice to be up about 5% already and I really think Mark Jordon will come out with some favorable remarks soon based upon his histoy with both companies. Should provide a little assistance.

    More later on my blog or on bridgetunnel

  • Reply to

    More M&A activity

    by philoette Nov 23, 2015 12:10 PM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Nov 23, 2015 9:00 PM Flag

    Not a big surprise to see this acquisition given the actiivism and board committee to explore. Seems like a relatively modest premium though CMTL had seen a pull back after their earnings miss and TSYS has been pretty strong this year. I allocated 25% of my TSYS invesment back into Comtech as a flyer. Solid balance sheet. 10% deal pull back discount. 5+% yield with solid coverage ratio. I think they can do even better than the announced synergies as i've always felt TSYS was bloated, especially in G&A.

    Still holding a small position here but can't justify increasing given te lackluster performance of late. Need to get some of these options converted to funded orders.

  • Reply to

    Comtech a buy?

    by marty.chilberg Nov 23, 2015 10:43 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Nov 24, 2015 12:06 PM Flag

    I added another blog post on SA about deal. The amount of leverage and likelihood of a capital raise are reasons why I'm going cautious on CMTL for now . Will do more analysis after the Dec conference call to har more.
    GL

  • Reply to

    Why down today?

    by jboswell3705 Jan 25, 2016 9:49 AM
    marty.chilberg marty.chilberg Jan 25, 2016 1:13 PM Flag

    Citi downgrade to neutral

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