hey rick, yeah, been traveling a lot this month and my trips aren't over till mid august. I keep tabs but I'm not active around these parts at the moment. All is well on this end and hope the same on yours!
cracks me up. For as long as I've been doing this, it still makes me chuckle to see an "investor note" from a hedge fund manager. Because, y'know, hedge fund managers are well known for their interest in helping the average investor. hehe....I mean, they are practically on the same level as mother teresa. All they care about is issuing "investor notes" for the good of everyone else, right?
lol.....ok. Enough sarcasm. Hedge fund managers take whatever steps they have to to advance their position/thesis. My guess is that any seasoned investor is well aware but the stock price movement today suggests there are still plenty of fish, um, people out there willing to bite on whatever bait is thrown their way. My apologies if I'm insulting anyone.....not my intention. But, seriously????? That anyone would take action by either buying or selling on a hedge fund manager "investor note" is beyond comprehension. To each their own I suppose.....cheers!
Maybe some? Many? Would agree that while there are the usual wackos on this board like most other online forums, there is also a higher than normal concentration of very engaged and thoughtful people here as we'll. I suspect that's the case due to the disease - it has touched so many peoples lives directly and indirectly. Many people fully understand the medical value of what afrezza offers from real life experiences. It's not a drug that offers a few more months of life but rather a drug that offers safety and disease management for the rest of their long lives in a way that no existing drug can offer, and all without the constant use of needles all day long.
I too am grateful!! Cheers!
greater than 500 million in up front cash will generate wall street and main street interest and the stock will pop, guessing north of 12/15 per share.
around 500 mil in cash up front and wall street will yawn. Main street will likely be excited enough to pop the stock a few bucks. Won't hold though while we wait for sales next year and the stock will drift much like it's doing right now.
less than 500 mil in cash up front and MNKD has to raise cash. Cash is king and MNKD is treading water there. The cash will have to come from somewhere..... IN this scenario, both wall street and main street will yawn and the shorts will likely be pretty happy. Between now and next years sales, day traders will love MNKD due to all the swinging going on. Those darn swingers just love to party.
The details are what's going to matter, but, not to the stock price. The fact that the partner might pick up the post approval trial costs, the sales and marketing costs, etc etc won't mean a whole hill of beans if sales aren't stellar. So, the initial cover to the story will read what everyone will trade on - how much cash is BP willing to fork over up front to MNKD???!!!! That's the bling bling that will move the stock initially. The rest of the story won't play out until sales start rolling in next year!!
May I respectfully add to your post?
Quiet periods are mostly about going public, or, mergers. However, in both cases the word is already out there and the quiet period starts as the "event" approaches. In other words, everyone knows company A is going public but during the quiet period, insiders are not allowed to talk about it.
Ok, so what about MNKD? Since they are already a public company the "quiet" period would start at a time when they issue a SEC notice of whatever......if that notice has to be reviewed before it's published then that is the quiet period since it's not public information yet and any insider who acts on information that isn't public is subject to insider trading violations. It's usually pretty short as it not a months long process for the SEC (typically). Once the SEC doc is published, quiet period is over since the information is now public for all to see.
Applying it to today, MNKD has been anything but "quiet". In fact, up until the FDA approval they have been chatting it up more than most companies. The fact that MNKD has been quiet since the FDA approval doesn't indicate a formal SEC imposed quiet period but rather more likely just an internal policy given that they are, in fact, in what's probably a wide range of talks with more than one company involving all kinds of ways to move forward (partnership, sale, multiple companies, etc etc). They don't want to violate insider trading laws, so, everyone keeps their traps shut until it's public knowledge.
We're probably saying the same thing, but, thought I'd add my understanding to the conversation. Interesting topic!!
If I'm wrong, let me know. Always like to learn something new every day! ;)
I respectfully disagree. In gambling you don't have a choice when you can exit. In investing, you do have a choice (I dont' short so I don't get margin calls). Things can get bad but you can choose to ride it out. Things can get great and you can choose to continue to ride, or, not. When you drop 100k on red 7, the wheel spins and that's it. No choice! Or, put your money in and pull the level. Poker? Blackjack? Slightly different for different reasons but all still the same.
I will absolutely agree, however, that its all in how you look at it. Do you do research on a particular wheel? Dealer? dice? cards? Does it help you to win consistently in a casino? Sure, some can do it.....most can not. Investing is not gambling. Risks - yep. But calling it the same as buying a lottery ticket, well, if you believe that then I believe you do in fact "know yourself" ;) and I wish you the best with your "luck".......
Watching the current stock movement has it's impacts on you depending on how you think about money, your timeline, your time horizon, your views on your investments, and what your investment strategy is. All of that may seem obvious, but, it's not. If you don't have a complete understanding of the answers to ALL of those questions about yourself, then you're fooling yourself. IF you don't know the answers, your watching the movement of the stock each day and putting yourself through misery, anxiety, thoughts of selling, buying, selling......should I be in? out? buy more? sell? You'll continue to do that until you drive yourself nuts and likely end up making a short-sided decision (no pun intended). That is the very fire that consumes your money in the stock market - it's all you.
Here's an alternate reality - and, it works. At least, it works for me. I know the answers to ALL those questions about myself. And because I know that, I also know I have to have a plan (which I do) and I only make decisions when something occurs that is meaningful. The day to day movement of the stock price is noise - just noise. Gamblers like to claim they are investors by jumping on the momentum either short or long and, as each moment passes, they like to make claims of losing or makes tons of money. In fact, that's a losing game long term in the markets. So, does the price movement bother me? Of course not. I picked my entry point, I have my exit strategy, and I'm simply riding the ride until I've reached my destination and I won't get off (completely) until I have. OR, until something MATERIAL happens - NOT day to day stock price movements - but something meaningful before I'll consider re-evaluating my thesis.
MNKD has legs. This party has just gotten started. IF, IF, IF you're still long then what are you long for? Buyout? partnership? sales? Get your plan in place....know why you're doing what your doing. Sit back and enjoy the ride!! Cheers!
Only to the degree that the label was "as expected". And by that I mean there were no disappointments or major bonuses. Based on the adcom discussion it was expected to include a REMs, post marketing studies, and some limitations like those with lung disease. It was approved for types I and II. So, all of that was pretty much as expected and negotiations could have proceeded with those assumptions. A lot of "coulds" there......as mentioned by others, lawyers and buyers don't like risks and navigate unknowns with caution (good point yeffrey).....could just be as simple as that.
can never discount the attorney affect........As an afterthought it could also be alfred - he's not dumb. Quite shrewd. And that is a major difference between MNKD and most if not ALL other small biotechs out there. It's his money on the line and he'll do what he wants when he's ready on his terms. I do believe that and I didnt' include that in my original post.
I'm on board with the partner scenario and less on board with a complete buyout. I do believe that MNKD has and is working on a partnership deal. However, I can't ignore my perspective and experience that says - when a company has been looking for a partner as long as MNKD has (at least 2007 and maybe longer) and, even upon FDA approval, they have yet to produce a partnership (I know, it's only been 5 days including announcement day), one has to ask what's the holdup? It's pretty easy to say everyone was waiting for FDA approval but that doesn't wash with me. This is one area where I depart from MNKD's talking points. The reason is when an entity wants something they don't wait.......they pounce. That's how it works in business - if you wait, you're dead. If a partner is out there and willing to put up for the product, they don't sit on the sidelines waiting for someone else to come along and steal it out from under them. There is absolutely NO NEED for MNKD to wait - they could have inked a deal contingent upon FDA approval and expected labeling. They didn't. I would also say that MNKD and potential partners had a good sense of what the label would "probably" be and could have inked a deal just waiting for final word from FDA - so far, crickets. It does not take as much time as is being presented - it's just not that difficult. MNKD has a team of professionals working on the task - what's the holdup? That's my question, my concern here. Patience? No problem....but I'm not buying what we've been told so far on this particular subject. I realize it's a bash, a concern. Hopefully it will work out quickly and my concerns will go up in a blaze of glory. Until then, I have my arms crossed and my eyebrows furrowed and I'm thinking "What is the holdup, Mr. Sobel?" ".... a fence, sir! A barbwire fence!.." "Well that dog just ain't gonna hunt!.." (Movie quote)
I've worked at companies that liked to designate "experts" in the office. Helps with the flow of where to send questions or who to assign particular tasks to. However, it's also been my experience that the "experts" were simply assigned a task regardless of their experience, education, and/or expertise. Think adam - talks like he's an expert but, he's not. Motley fool is exactly like that. In the 90's I subscribed to several of their products but quickly learned that they simply use Buffet's list of stocks he owns (and a few others) and then "make recommendations with anecdotal commentary presented as research ". Their research is lacking, their opinions are lame, and the articles they pump out over and over are unbelievably lacking of depth, understanding, nuances, or anything relevant to what they are pumping or bashing. But hey, I did save a ton of money on my car insurance ;)
As far as what constitutes a great deal vs a blah deal, I see it like this:
1. Great Deal for partnership - lots of cash up front (1 billion or more) along with a rev sharing agreement and a commitment to either absorb or at least share in the post marketing trial requirement costs. That would be an amazing deal.
2. Blah Deal for partnership - token money up front (less than 100 million) and a complicated rev sharing scenario (arena's deal comes to mind......imho it's complicated). Can even throw in covering the cost of the additional trials, but, it won't help MNKD with their current cash position or allow them to easily clean up their balance sheet.
As always, I expect something in the middle, and, if that turns out to be true the partnership deal won't be quite the catalyst I and many are looking for. However, sales is another story and that is where I see MNKD's stock picking up steam.
So, here are my drivers and what I'm looking for: I'm looking at the first 3 months of sales as my barometer of the initial market. I'm looking at the partnership details as the short term driver. Of course, if they sell the company then woohoo!! I have a hard time seeing alfred selling MNKD for less than 10 billion, so, a sale price of at least 22/share.......bear in mind - "at least".
In many ways, MNKD is now a "I'll see you next year" stock for me. Congrats again and cheers!
Kinda funny I think we're actually saying the same thing with the exception that MNKD will have to show wall street that it can sell afrezza (or a partner or the buyer from a buyout). I believe this will take time.....however, not that much time. A few months of scripts will tell the initial tale here and the stock will react accordingly. Don't get me wrong, sure I hope it spikes right now. But I'm old, seen this before too many times, and yes - sometimes you win the lottery and get that spike. Most times.......it's patience that wins out. Anyway, not an argument here. Just what I consider to be interesting conversation......cheers!
Hey rick....really hard to get a feel for whether its a buyout or a partnership coming. The company has been talking partnership and downplaying a buyout, but, as we all know that's just what they put out and not necessarily what will happen. I'm sure if they get an appeal buyout offer alfred will pull the trigger. Reminds me of commercial real estate - "For Sale or Rent". Either way, the owner is willing to do whatever is in their best interests and in this case, in the stockholders best interests. But I don't have a strong opinion either way.....just not enough info to go on. The awesome point is that the label is as expected, so, a deal shouldn't be that hard to finalize. That's one thing I can say about the process. No surprises.
Haken isn't my favorite speaker but I understand his personality. I would prefer a better public speaker.
Seems that every situation has it's own idiosyncrasies and MNKD is no different. First, congrats to all longs and to all diabetics. Hopefully afrezza will provide some relief from the onslaught of needles in your (diabetics) lives and improve the quality of your existence. I'm pretty sure there was a lot of "interest" out there just waiting for that FDA approval so they could dump shares in mass. It happened. And, it failed unless there was an effort to simply cap the stock short term, which, it appears that's exactly what's happened. And, so what!! On to more important comments.
Label......I was concerned about the smoking population and whether they would be included in the black box portion or not. They weren't but as we all know now, the FDA "recommends" that smokers don't use afrezza. Much different than what I feared there as now it will be a decision between doc's and patients. Pulmonary function testing - assuming all they mean is the blow test that's a non issue as well. As far as the post marketing trials - get used to it because that happens almost all the time nowadays just like a REMs. I do not see this as a niche product.
Partnership - well, now it's time for MNKD to follow through. This will be interesting. No more to say till we hear some details. However, The deal will say a lot about how BP looks at afrezza because whatever deal is announced one has to assume its the "best" deal they could obtain - if the deal is amazing, then BP is truly looking at afrezza as a blockbuster. If not, well, there it is. What constitutes an amazing deal? More on that later but opinions are welcome!
Stock price - longs are likely very disappointed in the lack of a major pop. I do believe we saw our "pop" starting May 8th arriving to our current level (mostly the 10's prior to friday). I know many were looking for a major run today and this week, but, MNKD is clearly living in Missouri (the show me state). More later! Cheers!
Sentiment: Strong Buy