Norm Your thoughts on earnings and how they will effect the stock price immediately? With the Jan options ending this week there isn't much premium required to play a short term move.
If BBT follows its historic pattern, we'll see one more quarter of the current dividend. My question is what dividend do you think current results can support assuming a 40 - 50% payout ratio?
I think KK is committed to long term divined increases with a goal of $2/yr. But the path there will be gradual if not glacial.
My thinking (recently made public and clearly wrong) is that any dividend at this point will support a "floor" in the stock price at the 4% yield. Thus, an opportunity for "safe" put writing.
Bought 50 Oct 33 for $.25. My thinking is we were punished today by the overall downdraft created by the big banks. When the indexes get sold, we go down with them. Hoping for an adjustment Monday/Tuesday plus a pop from earnings. Thoughts?
Hope you are still around. I just bought 50 Oct 33 contracts at $.25. I think we got taken down today with the big banks. Lots of index trading for financials so we go down on news that has nothing to do with us. Maybe we get an adjustment back to our own reality on Monday/Tuesday and maybe a big hit with earnings. Thoughts?
I have sold puts several times on this stock over the last 15 - 18 months. Don't know how to calculate the roi when I didn't have to put any money down. Norm announced his Jan 2013 20 calls over a year ago.
You don't like money?
Hey, don't attack the man when you run out of argument. Norm accurately points out your reliance on ECRI was ill timed (to say the least). So you got one wrong. Big deal.
Actually I am not sure that the comparison will prove if Norm has been of benefit or not. I have taken him to task several times for making the same mistake in his estimates. He repeatedly overestimated the bank's ability/willingness to "write in" income based on overstated reserves for loan losses.
However, I found the rest of his estimates and opinions quite valuable. He chose to play calls at a 20 strike but I took his info and confidently sold puts at 23 and 24.
Money in the bank.
I agree with the notion that one could go back and read prior postings to determine whether a poster knows what is going on. Norm's estimates have been high but his insight into an enterprise that was clearly a good investment 18 months ago was valuable.
Norm's announced long position was in leaps at a 20 strike price with a strike date still in the future.
Norm, the price on this thing is going to be tremendously influenced by the increase in dividend announced in June. King made it clear that restoring the dividend was his long term goal which will certainly take years.
I am interested in what you see going forward on this. Their pattern is one increase per year which can make for some pops.
He's just "early". Interesting opposite opinion on BBT in Seeking Alpha which identifies BBT as a good short candidate with a target in the 20 - 22 range.
Norm, As you know I have thanked you a number of times for what you bring to this board. Also, I have chided you as your opinions (even before this last earnings announcement) have not been accurate. I have generously called you "early". Hey, it happens. Particularly later in life.
Nonetheless, you elevate the conversations on this board and you have helped me make some money - trading not investing. Your posts have given me a confidence in a "bottom" for BBT into which I have sold puts. My next is the June 26 that I sold some time ago for 2.02. I hope it expires at 0. For 10 contracts that's a nice haul and required almost zip in actual investment.
"Companies that do not report a reduction in their loss allowance will likely be seen as laggards in addressing loan problems and punished by the market."
Unfortunately KEY is now off 3.5%. This reflects my biggest concern for BBT. You get your reduced loan loss reserves but the stock goes down anyway.
Believe me, I'm cheering for you. Here's my simplistic take on JPM:
Credit Cards got better. Real estate is still a problem requiring more write off.
Based on the BBT naysayers over the last 2 years, BBT has not appropriately faced its problems. That would suggest at best no improvement in RE for BBT. Apparently, you think quite the opposite.
What is the size of RE loans relative to CC loans for BBT?
What day does BBT announce?
As always, thanks.
"JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s profits included $2 billion from reducing its credit card loan reserves. The slump in real estate continued to weigh as the bank increased its provision for credit losses by $1.1 billion."
Why are you backing out money that should go to VOD from VZ cashflow? VZ isn't getting any cash from Wireless either. I don't dispute your read on VZ cash needs. I just think they want to start seeing the wireless cashflow or they intend to buyout VOD.
Keep following those paid professionals. Can't go wrong there.
I like the amateur analysis on this site.
Frankly, Norm hasn't been right but he may have been "early".
I have made decent money trading this stock particularly with options.
Currently, I am long. Sold 10 June 26 put contracts a while ago.
Bought 20 17.50 Jan 12 call contracts for 9.80.
Hold 3400 shares but sold 5 Oct 35 calls for pocket change and 5 Jan 12 40s as well.
Sure hope we get a run.