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ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

matos.nuno 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 3, 2015 8:58 PM Member since: Mar 28, 2008
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    nice analise

    by matos.nuno Jan 3, 2015 6:57 PM
    matos.nuno matos.nuno Jan 3, 2015 8:58 PM Flag

    My intention is not stole nothing just share with you guys a good analise even is not my autory

  • matos.nuno by matos.nuno Jan 3, 2015 6:57 PM Flag

    Thoughts on Tuesday's Conference Call:

    There has been alot of online discussion about what news will be released at Tuesday's CC. I Figured I would share a few speculative thoughts on the subject because it is wide open as to what we might hear.

    1) it could be as straight forward as the PR states: EPIC updates that simply say everything is on schedule, number of open sites, etc. Plus similar generic updates on other clinical and non clinical studies. I find this bland scenario unlikely because it makes little sense to use a conference call for this when a new CEO blog post would suffice.

    2) we could get some sort of interim data update of EPIC or any of the other studies in our pipeline. Obviously we want trial updates to be positive and again I expect that anything discussed at the conference will be of a positive nature because a negative conference call on the heels of a large secondary offering is nonsensical.

    EPIC Phase 3 in SCD
    Phase 2 in ALI
    upcoming Phase 2 in Heart Failure
    Clinical and non clinical studies in:
    STROKE, SHOCK (CRADA in major trauma) AND PAH

    3) information regarding a partnership or other collaboration for Mast involving Vepoloxamer or AIR-001. Mast has consistently mentioned since I became invested here in late summer 2013, that they are actively seeking partnerships that are mutually beneficial to the company and its date this has not come close to fruition but a partnership would be welcomed news indeed.

    4) Potential management or Board of Directors changes...but this seems an unlikely forum for this scenario.

    5) a large pharmaceutical has approached Mast with a buyout offer...this is highly unlikely at this time. This would not be a logical forum for such news and it is much too early IMO for this to make sense. Once EPIC results are released in about one year is a more logical timeframe for this company to be approached regarding a buyout...that being said, if someone is gambling and needs an SCD drug in their pipeline (or other indications for MST-188/AIR001) and wants the best price possible before the PPS gets any higher.

    6) Mast, now flush with new cash, is acquiring another company similar to the Aires Pharma deal last spring. Another unlikely scenario but then again, the Aires deal came out of nowhere. But with Aires deal it was announced in a PR and then followed up AFTERWARDS with a CC.

    7) The announcement of a new potential indication for drugs in our pipeline. Again, not very likely but remember I mentioned last year minor discussions by an outside non Mast Therapeutics source regarding Scleroderma and potential of benefits from MST 188. Again, very unlikely.

    These are just a few possible scenarios for Tuesday's CC that popped into my head as the snow begins to fall here in New England. Again, logic tells me that the overall nature of this conference call will be positive and will be the first of many positive catalysts to be presented this year that will move MSTX PPS considerably higher and more inline with current analyst estimates. The median estimate is approximately $2.40 with a low of $1.00 and a High of $3.00. It should be noted that a couple of these estimates such as from Highline ($3.00), clearly state that they are basing their estimates on MST 188 in SCD only and are assigning no value to the other indications for MST188 or to AIR001 at all. They continue that if any of the Phase 2 trials begin to produce positive data they will be revising their estimates much higher. Just some food for thought before the CC my friends.
    All the best through the weekend.