Another Pain Killer (same drug as) but more Potent than Oxycodone and Vicodin. Guess there aren't enough addicted people yet. Geeesh, makes no sense at all.
Expense's should be substantially less going forward. Even though they mentioned there would be no more development without a partner funding it, I sincerely doubt there will be any at all, and, that Dr.P. will eventually sell the company. I think he would get bored going to the office every day to count the money coming in and redistributing it. Guessing it will be in 2015.
Approval and launch of the product nets Pozen another $20 million combined milestone.
We think PA is a $250 to $300 million product in the U.S. Pozen management expects Sanofi to put forth a "first class" effort with PA, piggy-backing off the success in this area by the company with mega-blockbuster Plavix. In our view, the future for Pozen remains very bright given the pending launch of PA around the middle of 2014 and the recent acquisition of Vimovo by Horizon Pharma. When we asked Dr. Plachetka, "What's next for Pozen," his response was, "Continue to return cash to shareholders!"
We've done some initial modeling on what Pozen will look like with PA on the market and a reinvigorated Vimovo selling at Horizon (see below). We think Pozen could generate as much as $60-70 million in free cash flow starting in 2017. Based on the current share count, with equates to over $2.00 in potential free cash flow per share earmarked for future cash distributions.
At the current stock price, these dividends would equate to a 20-25% yield. You can't find that kind of "high-income yield" anywhere in the market! Pozen's stock should be trading at $12 per share based on the future projected cash flows and return of capital to shareholders. Now we understand there is a discount based on the fact that PA has yet to be approved and Horizon has yet to demonstrate it can grow Vimovo; but we think both caveats are low hurdles to overcome. We also note that our modeling above has Pozen paying taxes starting in 2017. Our assumptions could be increased by 1/3rd if Pozen decides to sell to a tax advantaged organization, similar to what the company did when it monetized the Treximet royalty to Canada's CPPIB Credit Investments in November 2011. That sales price of Treximet royalty for $75 million was around 35% higher than we factored in our DCF model due to tax implications.
Pozen Inc. (POZN): Meeting took place with Dr. John Plachetka, Chairman & CEO, and William Hodges, CFO
Pozen's stock has done very well over the past twelve months, up 51% - and that does not count the $1.75 per share special cash distribution paid on December 30, 2013. When including that payment to shareholders, Pozen returned nearly 100% in 2013.
We did our best to pry from management some information about the discussions the company had with the U.S. FDA in November 2013 around the pending PDUFA for the company's PA "safer aspirin" product. As a reminder, Pozen announced in November that the FDA requested a teleconference to discuss the new drug application for PA-325/40 and PA-81/40. Late last year, Pozen announced that the FDA had extended the PDUFA goal to April 25, 2014 to allow Pozen to conduct a comparative Phase 1 pharmacokinetic study. Although this study has yet to be listed on ClinicalTrials.gov, management was able to share some of the details with us at the meeting.
The study will compare the dissolution of the 40mg immediate release omeprazole component between PA-325/40 and PA-81/40. Pozen did the initial pharmacokinetic work for the drug on the PA-325/40 compound and the FDA wants to be sure that the characteristics of PA-81/40 are similar. Given that PA-325/40 contains 325mg of aspirin compared to only 81mg of aspirin for PA-81/40, the surface area of the 40mg omeprazole component differs between the two formulations. Management tells us that the initial pk curves between the two compounds do differ slightly, but that the overall characteristics should be similar enough (usually the FDA gives a window of ±20% on these types of things) to sail through review with no issues. Thus, we believe PA will be approved in late April 2014. We remind investors that Pozen licensed the U.S. rights of the drug to Sanofi in September 2013 in return for $15 million in upfront cash and future cash milestones and royalties on sales. Approval and launch of th
They may all do a Joint Venture on a New Battery Factory, since they all need them. Could make economic sense and spread the risk around. Bet they are still talking about it.
I've been holding for 6 years, 10,000, I bought another 15,000 in the last 5 days. Getting another 10,000 when it hits 7.5 or lower. Looking for 11.50 -12 on approval
like around 12%, much worse than the overall market, and below the Dividend price around 7.96. Earnings aren't going to be anything spectacular yet, so further declines likely as the S&P, NAS, DOW all pull back further, say 8%, only 3.5% now on the major avg's. POZN will just follow down.
Horizon Pharma soared 18% as the specialty-pharma company continued its impressive share-price run after delivering preliminary results for the fourth quarter. Horizon cited reports from Source Healthcare Analytics that total prescriptions of its Duexis inflammation drug rose 13% while its Rayos delayed-release prednisone tablets climbed 18%. The company also said that its acquisition of arthritis combination-therapy Vimovo has gone well, with prescription growth pointing to potential future success. Horizon still isn't profitable, but solid results from its stable of drugs could change that in the near future.
HE may have perpetuated the Ponzi Scheme!