ISIS' Kynamro, ongoing anti-PCSK9 trials, gastrointestinal problems & fatty liver disease dropouts, statin interaction, exclusion of those under 18 yrs old, high cost, etc... will carve up AEGR's very very small pie into a very small slice. Note that besides the threat of anti-PCSK9 approval, the anti-PCSK TRIALS alone threaten AEGR market share ... and AMGN is recruiting as we speak.
could be more than 300 total US HoFH patients, but the number will be closer to 300 than 3,000. Subtract out the competition, drug interactions, and those who cannot tolerate Juxtapid and we'll find that AEGR's actual share is pretty small.
Aegerion’s “acceleration” in patient count does not add up. In fact, its third quarter revenue is more consistent with flat patient growth.
Is this why Aegerion suddenly stopped revealing patient counts last quarter?
Calculating AEGR’s revenue at zero patient growth and then accounting for multi-month shipments yields a total roughly equal to AEGR’s actual reported revenue, suggesting that there was no growth in patients for the 3rd quarter.
1. The 2nd quarter ended with 215 “patients on therapy.”
2. CEO Beer assured us that these were “approved insurance on therapy patients.”
3."Revenue from sales in the U.S. is generally recognized once the product has been received by the patient." ~ SEC filing
4.“Patients on therapy” presumes receipt of the drug and therefore, revenue recognition.
5.So an estimate of minimum 3rd quarter revenue at zero growth in the patient count should come in at 215 X $70,000 = $15 million ($295,000, quarterly, at 5% gross-to-net).
6.Multi-month shipments have not been factored in. For example, our minimum revenue estimate would be larger if Aegerion revealed the percentage of international sales, “many” of which were multi-month shipments.
7. Aegerion’s 3rd quarter revenue came in at $16.3 million
Critical point: At zero patient growth, we calculate Aegerion’s revenue to be $15 million. After we add in multi-month shipments the total is even closer to, if not exceeding, the actual reported revenue of $16.3 million. Thus, reported revenue does not support Aegerion’s claim of “accelerating” patient growth. In fact we must ask, Was Aegerion’s patient “growth” actually flat – or even negative?
Matt - 3 foot crowbar
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"Amgen (AMGN) today announced that the Phase 3 MENDEL-2 (Monoclonal Antibody Against PCSK9 to Reduce Elevated LDL-C in Subjects Currently Not Receiving Drug Therapy for Easing Lipid Levels-2) trial with evolocumab met its co-primary endpoints: the percent reduction from baseline in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) at week 12 and the mean percent reduction from baseline in LDL-C at weeks 10 and 12."
The study includes HoFH patients from AEGR's market.
"The Phase 3 studies will evaluate evolocumab administered every two weeks and monthly in multiple patient populations, including in combination with statins in patients with ...[other populations mentioned here, ending with] ... homozygous (TESLA and TAUSSIG) familial hypercholesterolemia."
Prevalence rate for the disease is 1 in one million. Approx. 300 HoFH patients in the USA.
Stock is grossly overvalued. Look at revenue versus market cap.
AEGR’s management is claiming a 3,000 patient population for the USA; the very scientists associated with its drug have said that there are about 300. Even a Nobel Prize winner used a prevalence rate that comes out to 300 US patients for HoFH.
Doing your own DD is far superior to following sell-side analysts. Reading the 10-K at the SEC is a must.
Read the disclosures on analysts reports and see who is paying them. Also go to brokercheck at finra org and look up the institution behind the report. Look for regulatory events for Deutsche Bank Securities.
Yeah: Nov. 13, 2013 "Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating on Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AEGR) and raised its price target to $115.00 (from $107.00). Analyst Robyn Karnauskas sees accelerating sales."
"Following the Aegerion analyst day and our recent channel checks we are increasing our 2014 sales estimates and raising our TP to $115," said Karnauskas. "Given more docs are prescribing and scripts from current docs are increasing, we expect sales to continue to accelerate."
stock flew up to the 80's then crashed back into the 60's.
brokercheck at finra org shows a history for Deutsche Bank Securities. Almost 200 regulatory events, many involving research reports.
Sentiment: Strong Sell