is up 60K to 3,460,968 shs. During that period we only hit a daily high greater than 2.07 twice, once on 1-5-2015 for 2.11 and on 1-9-2015 the high was 2.09. Also the daily trading volume only exceeded 350K shs twice, once on 1-5-2015 for 1,073,100 shs and on 1-6-2015 when 708,900 shs were traded. As several posters have pointed out the daily short selling volume has continued to be relatively high during this 2nd 1/2 of January. We have some very stubborn recent shorts who at best are only breaking even and who are about to have a rude awakening sometime in the next 2 to 4 weeks.
Dsaur009 & Theoz_97 my own WAG is that everyone will be watching to see what kind of a reception the 30 lumen PicoAir and PicoPro get from the public over the next 4 to 6 to 8 weeks at Best Buy, Office Depot, etc. including us. In fact we could probably do our own amateur marketing survey just from the posters on this board by checking with the stores in our own neighborhoods and towns to see how many units are in the store, how many are on back order, and how well they are selling. IMO the train is leaving the station and the only question is what engine will be pulling it. Is the current 30 lumen engine with it's current dimensions that Sony is building good enough or will we need the smaller (ie. and therefore embeddable), brighter (ie. 50 lumen) engine that Peter from Celluon mentioned in the PicoPros interview. Lets call it our optical engine 3.0 which we developed with Sony, or "Sony"s engine". Again it is just my WAG but I think that is the engine which Sony will be putting into it's own products and I doubt that they will try to compete with any of their own customer's products like Celluon's SA. More likely Sony will put that smaller, brighter engine into it's Walkman, game boxes, HUDs, cameras etc. and they will also sell it to their customers like Celluon. They are going to need a license and royalty agreement from us and will probably have to qualify additional suppliers because you could easily be looking at a 3M to 5M to 8M units per year and we will need to qualify a 2nd engine manufacturer as well. We will probably know by the end of April or early May if the current 30 lumen engine is good enough to start the stampede and for Celluon to roll out the SA to the rest of the world or if we are going to need the smaller, embeddable 50 lumen engine. Maybe I am a cockeyed optimist but I think that it will be the 50 lumen engine that is in all of the products that are introduced in time for Xmas 2015.
Dsaur009 you need to distinguish between 2 kinds of contracts. One is a contract to manufacture MVIS's optical engine (ie. from components) supplied by MVIS, and then to supply that engine to the customer who wants to use that engine in one, or more, of it's products. MVIS revealed last year that Sony was going to be one of MVIS's optical engine manufacturers and we don't know the terms of that contract, all we know is that Sony has begun building engines under that arrangement whatever it's terms. This initial supply chain was to be capable of several hundred thousand units per year and per AT could be expanded to a million or more in 6 to 8 weeks.
The other contract that AT said he was targeting by year end was to allow Sony to manufacture it's own optical engines by licensing our technology and paying a royalty on future sales and by buying just one component from us, the ASICS chip and our secret sauce to run the whole engine.
So Sony will be wearing two hats. One is a construction worker's hard hat and the other is a bejeweled crown as a licensee and manufacturer of it's own engines. What we are seeing right now with Celluon is the construction worker's hard hat.
I don't think the resolution of this dispute is material enough to qualify for a PR. We will just have to look at the 10K when it comes out to see where things stand currently. Lets hope that Asia Optical is included in Sony's supply chain and is participating in our two recent component supply orders from Sony. I think the prospect of current and substantial future business would help to facilitate an amicable resolution of this matter.
Most of the increase has been on the NASDAQ with a very modest increase in short volume on the NYSE. I think it is much more likely due to individual traders who think the Hololen/Msft speculation is unwarranted. The high for the day on 1/22 and on 1/21 was only 2.08. Seems like a few negatively minded folks trying to scalp pennies.
Until we see what comes of CES and our next PR maybe the best indicator of what lies in the near future are our open job positions. Sometime between 12-21-2014 and today the Embeded Firmware Engineer position apparently was filled because it is no longer being advertised as of today. To me the most interesting position is the temporary "Contract Quality Inspection Technician" for "the next month +" position. He is supposed to spend 6 hours/day using microscopes, high binocular and med-low power stereo-zoom scopes. The job was posted on 12-17-2014. We will have to see when he is hired but I wonder if the contract he will be hired under is our 1.5M "Display Module Support Services Contract" with Sony which we announced on 10-27-2014. Maybe he will be examining the display modules Sony is building from our 1st 1.9M component supply order which we started delivering in Q4 and which is supposed to be completed here in Q1. The 2nd 1.9M component order to be completed in the 1st 1/2 of 2015 might be to exercise a 2nd supply chain so that there is an alternate source for each of the components of our joint Sony/Mvis engine. Maybe this temporary employee will be held over for a continuing engagement. This is going to be a fun year.
There were several 40K sh to 50K sh trades placed at the market after 2PM that weighed on our stk price. It could have been tax loss selling, the trade date governs not the settlement date. It could also have been some index funds selling in sympathy with the overall down market. In any case it's all history now. Time to look forward to CES and a rise in our stk in anticipation of what might be shown by Sony and others.
Plausible but very unlikely and far too complicated. The price of 1.78 did not have anything to do with today's trading. It was priced at the previous day's close (ie. 1.78) which is typically the case with most financings and large trades. It was not a buy to cover an outstanding short position. The trade was done on the NASDAQ and the entire short activity today on the NASDAQ was slightly less than 63K shs.
We are seeing very heavy daily short covering here in the 2nd half of December and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 300K sh to 400K sh reduction in the amount outstanding short interest on the next short interest report. Everyday the shorts plaster the board with 20 to 30 negative posts while they do exactly the opposite with their pocket books. The fact that someone was willing to buy 2M shs at 1.78 today puts the lie to their constant posts.
This was just simply year end tax planning (ie. selling) and the most likely participants in order of likelihood are 1) Someone from the March Oppenheimer financing, 2) Crede and it's various related entities, or 3) Ben Farhi and his own, and/or, his father's extended family owned entities.
II could also be one of the purchasers in the March Oppenheimer financing doing some year end tax planning.
The list of buyers and sellers is pretty short. Clearly somebody wanted to lock in a basis and put these 2M shs into another entity. The only other possibility would be us selling shs from an expanded ATM and if so we would see some SEC filings pretty quickly. I think it is very unlikely to be us. Much more likely it is either Ben Farhi doing some inter family transaction with himself or with his Dad or one of his Dad's entities to offset losses from other sources and potentially raise some relatively tax free cash for other purposes. IMO it is most likely Cree CG III, Ltd taking it's gain to date for tax purposes to offset against other losses by moving this 2M shs to another one of it's entities. None of our institutional holders held this much stk at 9-30-2014. The State Treasurer of the State Of Michi9gan only held 1,735,000 shs and is a tax exempt entitiy to boot and Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd only owned 1,380,536 shs. It has to be Cree moving 2M shs between a couple of it's entities and taking a profit on some of it's MVIS holdings in order to offset losses on other holdings. They could also be doing just the opposite if they sold all of their holdings into th spike in our stk price after the Sony announcement and they bought back in after our stk fell back to earth but at prices that are above our current year end price.
It is definitely tax loss selling. It will be over after lunch on Wednesday and we will close up on the 31st. And as long as nothing happens in the real world (ie. terrorist attack, new war moves by one or more countries, etc.) I still like a 1.90 close at year end. Lets see what happens.
Our stk's trading and it's prospects are all about news, to think otherwise is just plain crazy. The primary support for our stk since mid December has been short covering which has been running somewhere between 25% to 40% of our daily volume. The only exceptions were 12/23 & 12/24 when we got a modest volume spike from the UPS publicity and the short activity fell to less than 20% of the daily activity. For the rest of 2014, without news or publicity, short covering will continue to provide the primary support for our stock. I think by noon on the 31st tax loss selling will be pretty much over and we will rise into a close somewhere around 1.90 or maybe the low 1.90s. Then I think we could see a rise into CES that takes us into the low 2s. But beyond that somebody, preferably Sony, has to show us a product using a MVIS engine that they plan on introducing to the market in 2015. If not it will be just more of the same old, same old. AT needs to as the saying goes "blankety blank or get off the pot". Other wise I think it will still happen but it will be delayed by a quarter or two. I don't think we will do a major financing without first announcing one, or more, positive developments. Also the jobs that are being advertised indicates that we think our near term prospects are pretty good. So I don't see us going back to the 1.50s or to some of the other dire predictions that have been posted. But to stay over 2/sh we need news, real news.
is down to 3,484,455shs which is 202,370 shs less than the 3,686,825 shs which were outstanding on the previous 11/28/2014 settlement date. Since the UPS publicity came out on 12/23/2014 the cost of covering has gone up and it will only get worse in 2015.
Really you could make the case that the UPS publicity is a genuine Christmas present and the most important news we longs have ever had. It is the first time in the entire history of the company that we have heard from a satisfied customer who is pleased with it's purchase of a MVIS product that was, and will be in the future, produced and sold at a profit.
At roughly 10 minutes before the close there were 2 10,000 sh trades at 1.87 and one 20,000 sh trade at 1.87 and all 3 were at the ask. I think that the UPS publicity has generated some real interest in our stk. Only a handful of days are left in 2014. I don't know where we will finish the year but at 12-31-2015 we will be at least $2 to $3/sh higher than this year's finish. I wonder if we have been tinkering with our ATM financing facility and if we have been sitting on our own stk by selling small amounts everyday since the announcement of the 2nd 1.9M order. AT said that we would announce when it was completed but as a practical matter I don't think we will hear anything about it until we announce the 2014 results in February. In any case time is about to expire on tax loss selling and on cheap covering for the shorts and we have the rise into CES and our first potential look at what Sony might be doing, or planning on doing, with our optical engine. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone and especially to all of our long suffering longs.
They bought a net 286,353 SHS in the latest report and on the 11-28-2014 settlement date the outstanding short interest was down to 3,686,825 SHS from 3,973,178 SHS on the 11-14-2014 settlement date. They better cover while they can because the tax sellers, and all of the other market participants as well, will be concentrating on Christmas and the holidays after Friday the 19th of December with probably one last gasp of selling on Tuesday 12/30. All stocks should rise a little into the close on 12/31.
Hi Microwishin, what I don't understand is why or how do other OEMs buy from us, and/or build on their own, an engine that is comparable to Sony's engine. Your point about Sony wanting several sources for their engine makes a lot of sense but I just don't see how other OEMs get a comparable engine here in the beginning without buying Sony's engine to use in their own products unless we, or someone else, makes it for them and pays some kind of a royalty to Sony. At the outset it seems to me that there may be a bifurcated market where Sony make makes the real "heavy/duty" PicoCo Projector engine and everyone else uses the "PicoCo Projector Lite" engine. Then as time goes on and the technology improves and other OEMs design their own engines they will be making engines that are better able to compete with Sony. However I think Sony will always have the edge on pricing because they are so vertically integrated. The make their own DGLs, their own projection engine, and supply their own content. Lots of places to shave margins. It seems to me that if Apple or Samsung truly wants to compete with Sony they are going to have to go out and buy Sorra or Osram so they can have their own source of relatively cheap DGLs. And as you say we will be darn lucky if we don't get bought out early in the process as the mobile viewing projection market builds out.
that is to be filled in the first half of next year. The first 1.9M order was to start in this Qtr and be filled in Q1 of next year. These orders are I guess, as AT has said, to exercise our supply chain. 1.9M per Qtr is at least consistent with the only parameters we have been given over the last several years. Our initial supply chain was to be for several hundred thousand units per year and we have been told on a number of occasions that one of the major advantages of DGLs is that they are easier and cheaper to make than SGLs and that they should start out costing around $50 each in volume. Sony makes their own DGLs so that is one component that Sony is not buying from us and yet every one of their engines will need a DGL. So if you divide this 1.9M order by $50 for each DGL Sony is supplying, it suggests that this is an order for 38K units. Then if you multiply these 38K unit/Qtr orders by 4 Qtrs you get around a 152K units for a yearly run rate which is reasonably close to AT's guidance.
So where are the additional OEMs we have been trying to sign --- ie. I still like Amazon ---? Are they just waiting to buy their engines from Sony or are they going to give us an independent order for engines to use in their own products which will then cause us to "Ramp Up" the supply chain? And if Sony is not going to make their engines who is? Won't they want a second source for their engines? Sony paid us 4.6M to develop it's HD engine. Won't the other OEMs want their engine to have specs and capabilities comparable to Sony's engine? Why would Sony want a second source to be able to make an engine that is as good as theirs, are they going to get a royalty on each engine that we, or other OEMs, make from second sources? Lots of unanswered questions IMO.
Hi Microwishin thanks for the kind thoughts. I have been following MVIS for so long it seems more like an archaeological dig than an investment.
We have budgeted and booked 500K for this and similar contingencies, and any award in excess of that is going to adversely affect us. This has nothing to do with our previous inventory write downs which were in the 8M range in total at 12/31/2013 and involved the SGLs and other components of the engine for the Show-WX. Those write downs were taken well before Pioneer cancelled it's follow-on order for the new engine for the after market HUD (ie. which used the new DGLs). In fact the reason why we have this dispute is because as soon as Pioneer cancelled it's follow-on order to us we in turn cancelled our order to Asia Optical so that we wouldn't have a whole bunch of additional obsolete inventory that we would then have to write down. There was about 300K of inventory written down in 2013 and none to speak of in 2014. The real question in this dispute with Asia Optical is did we give them enough of a timely notice to escape having to take delivery and pay for the components that we were going to use for the follow-on order that Pioneer cancelled. They clearly don't think so. Also there may be some kind of a "take or pay" provision in our basic agreement with Asia Optical. And finally are they going to be one of the manufacturers of our new Gen 2 engines and part of our current supply chain? If so then maybe we can find a way to massage this dispute, if not then we may just have to cast our fate to the arbitration wind.