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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

mattrcarl 3 posts  |  Last Activity: May 3, 2015 7:24 AM Member since: Dec 17, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 4/30/15

    by goodoptday Apr 30, 2015 6:48 PM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl May 3, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    Like the past spikes, I'm guessing UNG move is another 2-day event and futures will be down over 10c on Monday. Like USD/EUR it's a crowded trade from the short side of NG but one that has decent fundamentals since there is just not that much to support higher nat gas at this time.

    Vol should rise into Friday overall. Still thinking we get a 180k or so number which will put everyone back on rate watch. A 150k or so number could be very good for the stock market as it lands in the goldilocks area where rates and the economy become non-issues for a month. A really good 200k+ number could send USD/EUR back to the lows as everyone will pile back on that trade again.

  • mattrcarl mattrcarl Apr 13, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    Not to mention the weekend effect which ALWAYS favors VIX - yet VXX (and the futures) can correctly acknowledge 2 days and 17+ hours that don't exist.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 4/9/15

    by goodoptday Apr 9, 2015 4:33 PM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl Apr 9, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    Let today's crash in NG get away twice - once by only shorting this weeks 13 calls (and not the 12.5) at the close last Friday and again this am by not shorting NGK outright. But I've had a battle with USO short so couldn't stay too distracted. EUR/USD down over 140 pips again today and almost 400 pips off the high last Friday am - at some point oil will notice the dollar again.

    I'm thinking this is another year we will see front NG at $2 - and therefore think UNG is headed to $10. Sorry, but there's just too much NG production IMO.

    On the vol front, I'm 75% out of the XIV long. While there is some nice curvature left, the run from 30 to 38 was most of the move and trying to get the last $2-$3 could prove costly as we are due for a vol reset soon.

    Almost had the payroll number to the thousand - and the reaction as the S&P shrugged it off as helpful. The 0.3% AHE increase won't be missed by the Fed, though. April's NFP number in early May will be north of 200k again. That should tell the market we're hiking in June (and probably near the end of year or next January.) 1% is still an absurdly low rate, way lower than other central banks (although the EU has totally won that battle with their negative rate.)

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