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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

mattrcarl 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 12, 2014 4:12 PM Member since: Dec 17, 2002
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  • mattrcarl by mattrcarl Dec 12, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    In 4 mins? VXZ4 to 20.50?

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 12/10/14

    by goodoptday Dec 10, 2014 4:12 PM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl Dec 11, 2014 8:18 AM Flag

    The extra move is more around the weight added to the next Fed meeting. Although we see smaller spikes around other meetings, I think this one carries a lot more because of the potential to see the wording changed. Despite the fact that it should mean absolutely nothing to this market, if you're selling vol, you might as well raise the price a bit while you can. Also the 2.5% down was rather abrupt - may take a day or two for things to rebalance. I can hardly wait for the meeting, cause short vol should be a nice play right after.

    As for oil - let's see what the curve does. Jun16 oil all the way down to $65 which kind of hints this might be a bit longer of a trend. You'd think the hedgers would step in at some point (hello, airlines?) Obviously they aren't going to touch the front months, but at some point the 18-month play will be there.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 12/10/14

    by goodoptday Dec 10, 2014 4:12 PM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl Dec 10, 2014 10:56 PM Flag

    Whatever the bottom - it won't be there for long. Commodities almost always overshoot. The really scary part is that we're getting $60 with a decent US economy. But never underestimate OPEC. I think they've got this one played quite nicely. Dump whatever supply you can to flush out the US supply, then come in an pick up the pieces. The fast money that's supporting the shale plays won't come back that quickly after getting burnt. Wish I'd seen it coming it's so obvious. Of course, Russia, Venezuela, Canada, all gonna take it on the chin, too. I'm surprised USD/CAD isn't 1.20 yet.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 12/3/14

    by goodoptday Dec 3, 2014 4:29 PM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl Dec 4, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    I think if you see some uptick in Ung tomorrow it's finally time to get in. Monday could be another spike up type day. Very cold in the Midwest compared to average. I don't think Feb gas can stay much below 4 for very long given the dynamics.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 11/14/14

    by goodoptday Nov 14, 2014 4:32 PM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl Nov 17, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    Bailed 22.10. Will wait for the next setup.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 11/14/14

    by goodoptday Nov 14, 2014 4:32 PM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl Nov 16, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    Well got the +15c open on the futures - just need to keep it into the morning now.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 11/14/14

    by goodoptday Nov 14, 2014 4:32 PM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl Nov 15, 2014 7:41 AM Flag

    Took another dip into UNG today - I think we open much higher on Sunday night in the futures and hope to hold into the open. Guessing a return to 22 next week as the reality of the colder-than-normal weather sinks in and the secondary production related to oil slows. Believe the short-term pop in USO Friday was more currency related than anything and there is more pain coming. DXY could be the downfall of USO.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 11/5/14

    by goodoptday Nov 6, 2014 1:53 AM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl Nov 6, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    UNG ... UNG .. UNG ... dang that one got away. I even had some at 19 that I dropped when we crossed $4 since that was a given target for the Dec future (I live in MI where it's been cold and getting colder). Never thought we'd see almost $4.50 so soon. Played my standard CBK range play and trying to get into some AES now.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 10/30/14

    by goodoptday Oct 31, 2014 7:04 AM
    mattrcarl mattrcarl Oct 31, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    Just a word of caution on your strategy. Normal market tops should have a period of higher vol while the market still climbs. This would cause a loss on both sides of your trades (depending, of course, on the difference between the particular stocks you've used as shorts vs. the indicies).

    IF (and that is a big if since we really haven't had it in 15 years) we get the normal climb as rates start to moderate, the market will still do well until the rate environment gets ugly (say 6%+ on the ten). This would require some inflation to creep in, something that a lot of folks don't see, but forget that US white-collar unemployment in certain job families is as close to 0 as possible. Wage inflation is coming - not for the blue-collar folks unfortunately, but on an overall basis, it will have an impact soon. The 1998-99 tape is not kind to your strategy.

    I'm still keeping my 9/2015 target of when the #$%$ starts to hit the fan. Might be delayed a bit because of Europes stumbles, but we're due for a natural recession in the next 2-3 years anyway. Just have to have the growth explostion blowoff first.

VXX
33.50+0.83(+2.48%)Jan 29 4:00 PMEST

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