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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

mattwrig 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 16, 2015 3:54 PM Member since: Jun 6, 2007
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  • Reply to

    MHR give us a GREEN close

    by firefdw Jun 16, 2015 6:51 AM
    mattwrig mattwrig Jun 16, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    Relational's hedge funds are in at least a partial liquidation (possibly full, I don't know). This was announced back in October, but I don't see many updates since then. Why they waited so long to start selling shares, I have no idea. These funds are not buying ANY new shares of ANY stock, so they certainly won't be adding to MHR. So one should not just assume they have given up on MHR as there is almost some degree of forced selling going on. Logically, you should want to be a buyer when there is a forced seller, but there's no way to pick the bottom.

  • Reply to

    Who are the Relation group?

    by bridgejumper08 Jun 16, 2015 11:02 AM
    mattwrig mattwrig Jun 16, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    They were trying to get their clients to switch into new funds, so they probably didn't know how much they would end up selling. But clearly they waited way too long. No idea if they have to sell the entire position or if they've managed to retain a good portion of their client base and can hold onto a majority of shares. Could get real ugly.

  • Reply to

    preferred

    by overtonjustin Jun 5, 2015 11:45 AM
    mattwrig mattwrig Jun 5, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    Ok. So you don't care whether you've made the right decision.

    P.S. Lots of people have earned thousands of dividends on GDP preferreds. It's not as impressive as you think. However, not everyone has had to pay margin interest to do so.

  • Reply to

    preferred

    by overtonjustin Jun 5, 2015 11:45 AM
    mattwrig mattwrig Jun 5, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    You might want to run some scenario analysis on potential returns of GDPAN vs levered GDP-C. You are definitely making a mistake on the downside risk and it's also very likely you're making a mistake on the upside potential. GDPAN is trading at a higher current yield and less than half the liquidation value of GDP-C. If prices normalize to the upside, GDPAN wins in many scenarios. And if there is a swap offer for common at some point, it is almost always based on par value, not market price, so GDPAN would crush the C and D in returns for that.

  • Reply to

    preferred

    by overtonjustin Jun 5, 2015 11:45 AM
    mattwrig mattwrig Jun 5, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    Why do you have so much in GDP-C when GDPAN is dramatically cheaper?

  • Reply to

    Gary Evans presenting today in New York at 11:30am

    by firefdw Jun 3, 2015 7:26 AM
    mattwrig mattwrig Jun 3, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    They were going to sell the pipeline and redeem preferreds two years ago but changed their minds because GE was convinced the value of the pipeline would go much higher. He was probably right.

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