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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

mattzn 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 1, 2015 7:54 PM Member since: May 27, 1999
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  • mattzn mattzn Jun 1, 2015 7:54 PM Flag

    Not a clue. Google google google.... nothing. One article predicting $0.31 for Q2. Looks computer generated. That's it. Found a second article about a loan repayment obtained by 'TNK-BP group' which showed up in the search but I don't think it is related to our Teekay Tankers. Computers might have gotten confused though.

    Is June 1st special other than being the beginning of the month? Maybe some funds got the green light or something. Either way, it ate up a lot of sellers. If it pulls back there's nothing stopping it from pushing up again well past today's end-of-day high.

    I could speculate... perhaps a dividend increase announcement leaked or something. TK was talking about increasing its own dividend during the last earnings cycle which pretty much means that TNK would have to increase to support it. But nothing has been announced that would trigger such a move today.

    -Matt (long TNK for a while)

  • Reply to

    Should be a strong dividend this Qt.

    by dgoose55 May 28, 2015 2:51 PM
    mattzn mattzn May 31, 2015 3:00 AM Flag

    I'm guessing that Herb will want to bridge Q3 with the same divvy, so if Q2 is gangbusters my expectation is the same divvy as Q1 ($0.38) for Q2 in order to hold back enough to maintain $0.38 for Q3 even if Q3 is a bit light, and then make up for it in Q4 by sticking to $0.38. So with a good Q2 we could see $0.38 for Q2, Q3, and Q4 (and if Q4 is gangbusters, maybe then we might see $0.43 or better, but I think $0.38 is more likely).

    -Matt

  • Reply to

    NAT 13.10

    by boomerskunk May 29, 2015 9:57 AM
    mattzn mattzn May 31, 2015 2:53 AM Flag

    On technicals NAT could retract to $12.50 or even down to $12.00. If it were to drop below $12.50 I will be buying. Other reasons it could drop... if we go into the reporting for Q2 and Q3 isn't shaping up well. The Q2 conference call will likely supply some numbers of Q3 bookings (it will be 1/4 booked by the time Q2 reports).

    Q3 is expected to be weaker than Q1/Q2 (though of course still stronger than Q2 2014). Q4 is expected to be quite strong. But if spot rates don't follow expectations going into the end of the year investors will start to worry about 2016 and that could drop NAT back below $12.

    Also just straight technicals. There are plenty of people with a NAT basis below $10 who will probably be taking profits (or more profits) at $13. Considering how much NAT has risen, profit taking could easily trigger a bearish pattern that keeps NAT bounded. If the timing runs too long it could hit Q3 sentiment. So yes, NAT could drop meaningfully.

    For the medium term, I personally consider NAT a buy below $12.50. I have a substantial position with a low basis (well below $10) and I won't be afraid to lever it up if it retracts enough in order to then capture some profits back at $13. But at the same time I am wary of 2017 and beyond. 2016 will be an important year for rates as it will provide confirmation for either the bull or the bear rate case. NAT as an investment could stay good for another year and a half and then it will depend on the rate case. With good rates it could become a 5-year investment. But it has to be watched carefully at all times, particularly as NAT's fleet ages.

    -Matt

  • Reply to

    Potential Acquisition

    by stjm99 May 14, 2015 1:41 PM
    mattzn mattzn May 14, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    My take on the dividend question that was asked in the Q&A is that Teekay Tankers put an emphasis on not wanting to return to the 'full' dividend policy (i.e. similar to NATs policy). They definitely did not close the door to a dividend increase. Given that the parent company (TK) is increasing its dividend substantially, my expectation is that Teekay Tankers will increase their dividend in the second half from $0.03/q to $0.05-$0.06/q. But not much beyond that. Teekay Tankers definitely wants to focus more on paying down debt.

    Also in the Q&A there was a question on the debt service in 2017. Teekay Tankers indicated that given the current high revenue, neither they nor their banks are concerned. There is a cost to refinancing early and they are going to let it run a bit longer before they begin to worry about it.

    Also in the conference call Teekay Tankers said that 50% of Q2 was booked so far at rates similar to Q1. Suezmax $39.4- $36.5, Aframax $30.7- $32.6, LR2 $24.9- $29.1. (Q1- Q2). So far Q2 is shaping up to be a very strong quarter. They expect some softening in Q3 due to the normal yearly cycle but also because refineries deferred current maintenance to take advantage of high differentials and that maintenance will propbably wind up happening in Q3.

    -Matt

  • Reply to

    Suez rates

    by stjm99 May 14, 2015 1:36 PM
    mattzn mattzn May 14, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    Yes, looks like the real deal to me. 12 Suezmax fixtures for the global fleet on May 12th with 9 listed, averaging WS88.5. Might be a bit of a spike but definitely not a fluke. Very supportive with VLCCs also adding a little. Aframax rates are still lagging though and its hard to say whether the Suezmax bump will pull up Afra rates or whether Afra rates will pull down the Suezmax bump over the next week or two.

    -Matt

  • Reply to

    NORDIC AMERICAN OFFSHORE POST LOSS

    by rjbotella May 13, 2015 10:18 AM
    mattzn mattzn May 13, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    NAT itself isn't responsible for that. Their releases are very clear. It's the automated news aggregation services that mix everything up and have since NAO was listed. Can be advantageous to us human traders though, because the computers don't know the difference.

    -Matt

  • mattzn mattzn May 11, 2015 3:53 PM Flag

    I wound up adding a ton today, risking the +55% profit I already have on my TNK position. With earnings coming out Thursday (before market open) and what will obviously be a gangbusters quarter I think that Deutsche Bank is manipulating the stock to position it for their institutional buyers to come in. Let them, I'll take advantage of it. If the market were sane TNK would be up today on NAT's earnings, so the differential DB was able to create with the downgrade is actually significantly greater than the -6.5% we currently see. Enough so that technicals are likely going to get blown out on a rebound by the time the week ends.

    If that doesn't happen this is still an excellent entry point for an add with spot rates as strong as they are. Though I don't intend to retain the foam on the extra-bloated position for too long, having to hold it longer wouldn't be a problem either.

    -Matt

  • Reply to

    New 52 week high probable by end of week.

    by gettinricher Apr 9, 2015 9:46 AM
    mattzn mattzn Apr 9, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    Rates matter, but NAT's day-to-day movement is disconnected. It has never reflected whether the rates were up or down that day. Besides, rates are holding up extremely well... still double 2014 for the same day. They're unbelievably good for this time of year and it's pretty obvious that the more serious investors know it.

    -Matt

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0.5438Jun 2 4:00 PMEDT