Could sell the Sept $100 put. It would either get you in closer to $97 or give you the $2.75 or $3.
I've sold some $100s.
Good Q2 #s. It's not a stretch extrapolating it over the next year as the economy gathers momentum or $16 per share earnings. Even reducing the next 3 Qs by 25% gets us to $13.
$13 X a low PE of 13 gets us to north of $150 share price.
I don't see too many analysts rushing to cover this. Maybe to many moving parts to estimate.
I can't invest smarter than Icahn and company so why try.
Thanks for pointing out my obvious error in typing SGN33a instead of SGNCD19 on my last post. I hope that most investors here knew what I meant.
The relapse DLBCL market is one of the larger. About 30% relapse(aprox.20000). All the drugs I've mentioned are at about the same point in development-phase 1. All compete for the same patient population. If approved, how well they perform will ultimately determine what kind of revenue they can generate. CARTs have as much or more history than ADCs. First to market will have an advantage.
JUNO is overcoming the CRS problem with daily monitoring. The short term reaction to the initial infusion is far less than the long-term toxicity experienced by patients receiving traditional chemo.
Data as it stands favors the CARTs.
All this is years away but potential as been priced in here. If the future outlook changes so should current price.
IMGN results are Phase 2 SAR3419. SGEN is early Phase 1 and will improve. They are both ADCs.
Data consistently shows CAR-Ts out performing. Juno and Novartis have not yet released their DLBCL. I suspect it will be in line with KITE's. JUNO seems to have a handle on the toxicity. SGN33a and SAR3419 are in a different class.
SGN33a looks to be on track for approval. Maybe fast-tract. This level of competition will affect the market.
KITE PHARMA went public a few weeks ago with about a $130ml IPO and became the latest company to go after the crowded CD19 space. Juno and PennSt/Novartis have released some early results for leukemia(ALL) along with SGEN. NOW some DLBCL results.
Gotta take Stifel's word on these data for KITE:
"We see the 80% objective response rate (ORR) and 60% complete response (CR) rate that KTE-C19 has generated in early testing in DLBCL as strongly outperforming current standard of care's 43% objective response rate. As we expect KTE-C19 to require only a single administration, we believe that Kite can justify a $200,000 price for the drug, which we estimate will lead to a profit despite our high $55,000 cost of production estimate.”
"The ORR was 53.8% among the patients with relapsed disease, with 69.2% having stable disease or better. The 14 patients with objective responses included 5 patients with complete responses (CRs) and 9 patients with partial responses (PRs).
Among the 15 patients with disease refractory to the last treatment, the ORR was 26.7%, with 46.7% having stable disease or better. These included 1 CR and 3 PRs.
The 55 efficacy evaluable patients also included 14 individuals with primary refractory disease. Among these patients, the ORR was 21.4%, with 35.7% having stable disease or better. The objective responses reported included 1 CR as well as 2 PRs."
"At the time of data analysis, of the 37 patients treated across all dose levels, the objective response rate observed was 30 percent (11 patients). Six patients (16 percent) achieved a complete remission, five (14 percent) achieved a partial remission, 13 (35 percent) had stable disease and 13 (35 percent) had progressive disease as best response. The clinical trial is ongoing with nine of the 37 patients (24 percent) remaining on treatment and new patients continuing to be enrolled."
The only "they" that already know are insiders....AKA Baker Bro. They are buyers.
Today's sell-off is more indiscriminate selling that will, like Silver says, create a buying opportunity. Hopefully.
News on SGN33a should be coming soon. It's gone longer than the first CD19 read. It will give us a glimpse of a "next generation ADC". AML is a tough target. Good news there will be well received and could lead to new PBD collaborations. The CD33 target is wide open. No Immunological competition with that target save for maybe one in China.
Of course the best news would be that they have been successful with the FDA in redesigning Echelon
1 & 2. I think it will happen but not yet.
They will beat estimates.
The post-transplant patients who have received Adcetris have a much smaller incidence of relapse and are living longer. In fact, unfortunately, data will understate the benefits because many patients will outlive the end of the trial.
Technically, now nearly all relapse patients have access with the current approved indications, both pre-transplant and post-transplant. That number is only 1800 or so per year. SGEN enjoys an excellent 70% market penetration in this group. The vast majority of HL patients (80%+) are cured by today's frontline treatments and do not relapse. To reach the 50%+ you talking about Adcetris will have to excel at frontline. Till that happens, sales and revenue will be on hold.
The Aethera trial has been very successful at extending post-transplant relapse. Perhaps a cure for many. Results may be released late 2014.
Because the trial was required as a condition of approval it does not automatically expand the label. Undoubtedly SGEN will use data from the trial to apply for the extension ASAP and I believe they have expressed that intention.
So how big is it in terms of revenue?
A 2013 ASCO abstract calculated that there were 790 HL transplants per year and that relapse occur in approximately 44%. Aethera has proved Adcetris can cut that number significantly and give instead hope for a cure.
I believe that presently the relapsed 44% have access under the current label so this adds 300-400 potential patients or about a $30-$40mil potential US market. I can't imagine many Docs not ordering it for a transplant patient so I believe market penetration will be close to 100%. Three or four hundred may not sound like much but that is in the 20-25% growth range. Currently the 2015 analysts revenue estimates look right to me.
All just a guess. Do your own DD.
Love the company but share price is a function of the market.
To be fair I meant sales of 40 million. and here is their words on Echelon.
"The primary endpoint in the ECHELON-1 and ECHELON-2 trials is progression-free survival per independent review facility assessment in patients treated with ADCETRIS compared to that achieved with therapy in the control arm. Given encouraging PFS trends in our phase 1 data combining ADCETRIS with standard chemotherapy regimens and the slower- than-anticipated events in the AETHERA trial, we and Takeda are evaluating the potential that event rates may be slower than expected in both the ECHELON-1 and ECHELON-2 trials and plan to work with appropriate regulatory agencies on any proposed trial modifications."
This upgrade follows an upgrade to buy from hold by Zachs yesterday..
Still too early for me to get back in. I think we are about to see act-2 of the biotech sell off and a better entry point. This touched the 200day resistance and backed off. Short interest is up 1mil shares now.
Earnings have rarely been a high point here. Maybe we'll see a slight uptick on rev to around $40 in Adcetris sales. No collaboration deals since the AbbVie deal in Q1. I think that translates to another $20-$25mil cash burn. Money seems to be flowing toward immune-oncology now not ADC's. Aethera is not a label expansion trial and they've said Exhelon's event based trial is taken longer than planned. I 'm thinking it may be 2017 now. So it will try investor patience. My guess is we see Cantor Fitzgerald's high $20 target this year.
?? Don't know. I hedged yesterday when I saw the put spreads go on. It looked like someone knew something was going down, so I hedged, but I'm all hedged or in cash now anyway. Not real positive on the overall market this the summer and fall. Longer term I agree...a non-issue.
They sold the $90 put on the spread so I'm guessing that is as low as it will get.
The 18/1 put call ratio and early sell off yesterday before the story was released is what's suspicious.
After two years of investigating the principles still don't know any thing about it. Maybe this is just another Ackman stunt.
SGEN news is really good. What your missing is the CART cell competition. It's a different world in just the last 6 months. I've invested/ traded this for over a decade. I now think the long term outlook has diminished. SGEN share price was based on that long-term potential. Will the market now demand results.
Multiple competitors are outperforming in the CD19 target. I believe it is also reasonable that CAR T-cells will perform equally as well on the CD30 target based on the fact that HL and ALCL generally response readily to treatments. If CART-cells do perform equally as well on CD30 lymphomas it will likely be granted accelerated approval. SGEN's PFS event driven frontline trials could take a very long time to complete. It is within the realm of possible that a competitor's CAR cd30 T-cell drug could be approved in SGEN's current approved indications before frontline in achieved.
Baylor is looking at Dec. 2014 for the first read out of their phase 1. I'm waiting to see that data before I get back in.
I also think that there will be a real push-back on price. A $100k drug will have to be not just first and best in it's class but also first in the best class.
I think Cantor Fitzgerald's $28 target is right. That's 3 times projected peak sales or a 3.5bl. market cap.
This is just my speculation and most likely wrong. Do your own research. Not a recommendation of any kind.