I'm yet to find anyone happy with ATT's DSL. Complaints: Slower than dial- up. Price has doubled. Can't connect to server. Can't download movies...videos.
Everyone I've asked about ATT DSL says, I've gone to cable.
SELL SELL SELL.
Just my opinion. I've been wrong plenty of times.
The only numbers that matters. Buy every dip. Your looking at the next Genentech.
Sgen will use every bit of Adcedris revenue to make it happen. Don't look for any near term profit. Look long term. Keep an eye on collaborators with solid tumor targets.
Really? This is who you are?
I've never said anything negative about anyone ever. I'm Just trying to share permanent info on a discussion board.
Sorry Red I'm wrong. When I think back, I can remember when you first invested here. I remembered you were were a little worried about the approval peak and you wanted to give room for those who had specific knowledge about the cancer treatments.
I got to tell ya I'm NOT Rick.
You addressed me as BMR. I'm not the enemy.
Red, I wonder about you. You've never given an opinion. You only copy and paste company press releases that we all have already read. You bully any negative poster.
You weren't here a decade ago but you've been here a least 6-7 years. So I'm guessing your a wife or child of an employee that hired on in 2005-2006.
So Tell us what is your estimate for Q4 earnings?? I'm waiting. We want to know.
So Tell us what is your estimate of peak sales? My guess is $1.8bil. We all want to know your guess. it's ok to be wrong. just give us your guess.
So Tell us what if you believe Adcetris will be approved for the treatment of B-cell lymphoma. I believe it will be. Tell us your guess.
Sorry you feel the need to make it personal. I truely hope you do well and if you hold this long-term I'm sure you will prosper. My comments are not ever meant to criticize anyone or how they choose to invest.
I always find it profitable to look at opposing points of view. I never think I'm smarter than the person on the other side of the trade. that includes you.
Thanks for yor critique, because of it I went back to see my last trade here so I could respond honestly. It was on Jan 21st. I sold at $47.40-$47.43. Coincidentally on the same day as the COO. it was a few shares over 100.
Currently I have no investment here.
COO Eric Dobmeier sold 56,010 shares of the stock on the open market in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, January 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $47.92, for a total value of $2,683,999.20.
He must be a stock trader because he timed the recent high pretty well.
I'll be paying close attention to Cantor Fitzgerald's Mara Goldstein after the CC this time to see if there is anything presented that will move her off the sell. I really respect her views and read her opinions. Her goal is to help investors make money.
Here's a recent quote from a StreetWise interview with Ms Goldstein.
" For companies with product-related revenues, the historical takeout valuation range has been 3–9x forward revenue. We can make the case that the upper end of the range is for products experiencing either high rates of growth, or those that have commercial applications in more than one disease indication."
Using that educated methodology - just mid-range, SGEN would fetch $7-9 billion as a buy-out candidate based on my estimate of forward peak sales.
Goldstein rates SGEN a sell CLDX a buy.
Needham price target is $8 now. Thomas-Reuters also up-graded today to buy.
Maybe the best measure of SGEN is cash-on-hand. 2011 ended with $330ml. 2012 ended with $360ml. Last Q they had $373mil. So if they ended 2013 with anything close to $363ml -$370ml they are doing great. It tells us they take in more money than they spend and are very stable.
I think SGEN will easily beat est... both top and bottom this Q. Adcetris sales should grow to $40ml. Earning should come in around -$.05.
2014. est. need to be raised.
Next year US growth should be 10-20% or more as Adcetris is keeping more people alive so retreatment plus new patients. Canada should add another 10%. Ex-US royalty should double.
One wild card is the effect of new guidelines for CD30 positive PTCL. Relapse PTCL actually a large group. My est. is 20k-25k....10 times current relapse HL and ALCL. But what kind of penetration there will be is an unknown. Since ALCL falls in that group they're already covered. pcALCL is CD30 and makes up a large portion of PTCL but it's non life-threatening and for the most part controlled by current low cost methods. We may get some of the worst disfiguring cases. PTCL-NOS has some cd30 expression but I don't think anyone knows what percentage. So it's a group with the potential for upside surprise. But here's the thing. A 10% penetration is 2000. So it's an unknown.
Post transplant data will encourage more use there.
So my est. for 2014 rev. is north of $300ml. and break-even. THE BIG IF is guidance on the expense side. If they raise it another $100 mil. like last year than the current analysts earning estimates are right.
Long term buy. With the market tanking this could retest the 50 and maybe the 200.
JUST my guess.
FDA knows the safety and efficacy history of ADCs. They are very supportive and accommodating of advancing this technology because of the lack of toxic side effects and excellent efficacy. Given that phase 2 was expanded to patients whose cancer is not yet refactory is very telling. Refactory means the cancer has "learned" how to thrive in spite of the chemo. The chemo just stops working. No chemo has yet worked reducing refactory metastatic prostate cancer tumors. Those who believe PSMA is of limited benefit don't understand the state of disease or the patient population treated so far in phase 2. Adding a group of patients whose cancer has not yet become resistant to chemo will make all the difference. What we may see is even greater response rates than current treatments given that PSMA delivers a much more potent cytotoxic chemo with fewer side effects because of the delivery method. The results of this portion of phase 2 chemo naive group may even shorten the path to approval.
My opinion. I'm a buyer again today.
Ph2 is not complete what little prelim data there is seems to meet end points which are: "The study endpoints evaluate responses in prostate specific antigen (PSA); circulating tumor cells (CTC); bone, visceral and nodal metastases; and pain."
I believe that CTC was reduced by 50% in 70%.... excellent.
The chemo-naive cohort is just now enrolling. We won't have finalized phase2 for many months.
I believe we will see excellent responses in this group.
A couple more things...Here's a comment from the lead investor. ""I've been encouraged by the response seen to date in our patients," said Daniel Petrylak, M.D., Professor of Medical Oncology at Yale Cancer Center, Clinical Research Program Leader for the Prostate and Urologic Cancers Program at Smilow Cancer Hospital at Yale-New Haven, and lead investigator on the trial. "I believe that the 2.3 mg/kg dose has been well tolerated," added Dr. Petrylak."
Also consider why the FDA would allow the expansion of phase 2 with a chemo naive cohort.
Also this: "Patients with advanced, hormone-refractory prostate cancer typically do not survive more than 12 to 18 months," said Daniel Petrylak, M.D., Director of the Prostate Cancer Program/Genitourinary Cancer Program and Co-Director of the Signal Transduction Program at Yale University Medical Center. "The hope for PSMA ADC is that its targeted therapeutic approach could be more effective and cause fewer toxic side-effects in treating cancer."
PMSA is the safest of all treatments.
The whole idea behind Keystone and the Seward reversal by Embridge is to get landlocked crude from Alberta and Cushing to the Gulf where it can fetch a price equal to Brent. The refiners which have profited on the WTI/Brent price discount will find their profit advantage evaporate while producers will see their profits rise. Gas prices will also rise as a result. How much is anyone's guess.
"The media attention surrounding these deaths is perplexing. "I'm not sure why this got so much publicity," said Robert Israel, MD, one of the study authors and executive vice president of medical affairs at Progenics. "This is not going to make a difference to clinicians. Anytime you drop the white blood cell count, there is a risk associated with it."
He pointed out that both of the patients who died had predisposing conditions. "One had an indwelling central line and the other had repeated urinary tract infections," Dr. Israel told Medscape Medical News. "The patients were also heavily pretreated and didn't have much in the way of other options.
this very heavily pretreated group "included patients with a performance status of 2, which is pretty poor."
"There is no reason that those 2 deaths should affect the development of this drug," he added.
Another expert agrees. "The deaths were unrelated to treatment," Susan Slovin, MD, PhD, a medical oncologist in the genitourinary oncology service at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York City, told Medscape Medical News.
"One death was due to line sepsis and the other to urosepsis," she explained. "These are events that can occur during any other cancer treatment and, therefore, are of minimal concern."
For those who know it's a buy. For those who are basically clueless it's a short.
These heavily pretreated patient's cancer had become refactory....no longer responding to treatment. Adding the chemo naive cohort whose cancer has not yet become resistant to treatment will produce the PRs and CRs you were looking for. I believe they will also have fewer adverse side-effects than those treated with the current front-line chemo regieme.
I believe we will be surprised and pleased with the response rate in this group.
It also tells us that this is moving forward in a very positive way.
I 'm guessing you are trying to scare people into believing there's some deadly associating between the Acedrtris ADC and PSMA ADC.
Here's what you don't know.
PML is caused by a virus nearly everyone has. You most likely carry the JC virus. You were born with the virus and the antibodies to prevent it from killing you. It is held in check from birth by your immune system. Specifically your T-cells.
Adcetris, happens to be approved for treatment in relapse and heavily pretreated ALCL cancer patients.
ALCL is a T-cell cancer. The very cells which keep PML in check.
Transplant patients now receive mega-doses of traditional chemo pre-transplant. Literally all of their T-cells are destroyed along with their bone marrow which creates new T-cells. During that time patients who carry the JC virus can be susceptible to the virus which destroys the white matter of the brain. Death can occur with in weeks.
Adcetris has not yet been approved pre-transplant. ALCL patients are at high risk for PML with or without treatment. Adcetris may actually REDUCE the risk.
I've been following ADC development since 2003. Where analysts often get it wrong is on the safety issue. They've done it twice with Seattle Genetics. On both occasions it was a buying opportunity.
PSMA ADC is perhaps the safest treatment these patients have received. The Seattle Genetics linker is the most stable. What that means is that the chemo is not released until it is in the cancer cell thus sparing surrounding cells from the damage associated with traditional systemic chemo. Patients undergoing ADC treatments don't even lose their hair. Patients who have reached their lifetime limit of chemo are able to well tolerate ADC treatments and even extend treatment for long periods of time due to its lack of toxicity. It's this excellently SAFTY profile that makes ADCs an excellent frontline candidate.
All of the patients have been put at risk by toxic prior treatments. It is nearly impossible to single out PSMA ADC as the cause of death.
The FDA has set the bar very low for this indication. DNDN's Provenge is the perfect example. Their Phase 3 results were: No anti-tumor activity observed and patients lived several weeks longer than the placebo group. The mechanism that extended life was unknown. FDA approved it anyway. PSMA ADC has surpassed Provenge already IMO.
Provenge is a immunological treatment which basically reengineers patient t-cells. That approach showed huge success at ASH in Dec on blood cancers. Big phara is moving in that direction now for next generation cancer drugs. But here's the thing; that approach did not work on this very tough to treat solid tumor target. it's gonna take an ADC. Progenics has it.
When this goes to phase 3 it will make PGNX a major buy out candidate. Here's why. ADCs give good protection against bio-similar competition. The engineered t-cell approach was tried and the results lacking IMO. Because of the lack of toxicity, PSMA ADC will have a path to frontline and that market is absolutely huge.
My worthless opinion