They have had six straight quarters of the same dividend. Personally, I consider that more than a year. But if it makes you feel better to look at a calendar year, go for it.
And over the last 5 trading days...VNQ and NRF have moved in price the same %. That was true yesterday when I looked mid day, and the chart shows the same today, but VNQ is ex a 76c distribution today so while it is up in price it is also down in price today.
There you go again, dar. Looking at one month tells only a one month story.
Look at the comparison to VNQ over 3 months, 6 months - virtually identical price returns. So in the last month NRF gave back the outperformance exhibited in the prior.
VNQ holds 145 reits and tracks the index - it is absolutely correct to say that NRF's price has performed in line with other reits over 3 and 6 months.
So, was the outperformance until last month the fluke, or is the recent 1 month underperformance the fluke? Or are they just noise?
A twice distressed sale, somewhat. Hope being the third buyer is the charm.
No offense intended - you are very straightforward.
Out there may not be so farfetched, don't preclude your theory. No need to post it. Folks should be able to figure out a few ways this could have gone done.
Only mystery is why are people still posting about the 9.8% and the non-movement of the price (that is not really a mystery, either - pet theories die hard and the fact you and I posted about it before the event was irrelevant).
You are right, that it says nothing specifically about NRF. Folks also ignore that NRF outperformed reits in the few months leading up to the announcement of the index inclusion. Hmmmm. (That was also pointed out). Or that NRF has already shot their big catalyst - the NSAM spinoff. NRF was a large hedge fund holding, and hedge funds are "what have you done for me lately" vehicles.
I am sure Vanguard prefers the term coordination rather than collusion. Happens outside Vanguard on other indexes as well.
Don't get so carried away. The person to whom he is referring has posted his own name before on this forum and made no attempt to hide his identity. I fail to see how it is abusive to reveal information already made public by the other party to begin with.
That said, I am not a fan of exposing people's online identities. I further saw no point to the original post. And it is not like that is a unique name - there are plenty of people with the same name, as there likely are for most of us.
Reits got overheated and they have since declined about 10%- but that is hardly a turn, at least in my book. In six months or a year we will know it it was the start of a turn, or just noise!
He is clearly still an opportunist. NRF strategy? Whatever they think will work and get funded for the next while. Most all REITS focus on a particular sector.
I know Whitehall closed down, but long after he left. I do not know the history while he was there - he was co-founder, wasn't he? Sometimes companies/funds take a turn after someone leaves (but sometimes that is just a story and the truth is things were like that always).
I agree with you in some respects, and also wonder how things will play out when things turn against REITS, particularly if there is a large amount on margin.
VNQ (proxy for the REIT index) is down substantially today. Earlier in the day, NRF was up while VNQ was down substantially. As I type, NRF is down well less than the index.
Maybe we have to recalibrate and realize that down less than the index is the new up! :)
The idea got traction because they want to believe it will dramatically drive the stock price up (or want to encourage others to believe it will drive the stock price up). If my past experience with index additions holds true, Vanguard Group has already made any open market moves they were going to make, as has every other fund family.
As I have said, people should watch the tape the last 5-10 minutes before close, and continue watching after the close. Then they can try to figure out what happened and why.
Now, the price may still move up, but it is not because volume buyers are driving the price up. Nor is it because volume sellers agree to sell if the price were 20 cents or 30 cents or even a dollar higher. Does not always go up, but sometimes.
SCCO already has $4.2bn of identified capex for 2016/2017 not board approved (not in the budget). They have another $1.8bn with no date specified, and some projects with no $ specified.
There is never a shortage of things to spend capex on. You might be interested in going back and looking at past capex and production forecasts, with the understanding that it is par for the course for large mining projects to get delayed.
Again, watch the tape the last five minutes, then keep watching. Then go back the next day and look at the tape of the day before.
Once in the index, NRF will respond, of course, to company specific results and active management buys and sells, but will also be impacted by index fund flows.
I suspect when you were told before about a private placement that your broker lacked knowledge of what really happened at and around the close.
Many reits have the 9.8% limitation. Look at Major Holders for about any REIT, and Vanguard Group holds more than that. The specific funds do not.
Funds are separate legal entities, with their own boards and tax IDs. They contract with advisors. It would seem they are able to differentiate between fund ownership and fund family/advisor, but I have no specific legal knowledge on this.
Watch the tape (actual transactions trade by trade) the last five minutes before closing on the effective date. Continue to watch after closing.
I would guess the fund families have already started. Hmmm, NRF has outperformed in the last month...
There was speculation going back a long time ago about NRF getting added to the index. The fund families of course, are stupid and lazy and despite their relationships with index providers, there is no way they could have figured that out until the announcement.
dar, I suggest you look up the word divergence and then put it in the context I did. Or as Hans and Franz would say, Read me now, understand me later. (I would quote the Andy Rooney character on SNL, but it would get censored.)
I simply used Yahoo Finance Charts. Do 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year. Can't do 2 year because of the spinoff. Put in 7/1/14 to 5/14/15 and the returns were closer than you calculate. The chart is based on price and oh no! As recently as April 15th or so VNQ had outperformed NRF on price!
From closing price of $75.24 on 7/1 to close of 81.97 on April 15th, VNQ price return was 8.9%. NRF went from 16.80 to 17.80, a return of 6.37%. Up to the close yesterday (sorry if it offends, but I like to use closing prices) - the situation had changed and NRF was up 9% vs 6.7% for VNQ. A one month divergence.
I rarely hang my hat on a one month move in a security that I continue to hold.
If you use the adjusted price, you can do a total return calculation and clearly NRF has done better, which you would expect. Through April 15th it is within 2 percent - 14.2% vs 12.2%. Nice, yes, but a 2% difference is so small as to be noise, easily reversed by a bad day. Of course, the last month made it a larger difference, but again, it is only a one month move.
I stand by what I said. NRF price has largely moved along with the VNQ price with periodic divergences that subsequently reverse. I also said I suspect it will likely outperform going forward. Was that so hard to understand?
No, I absolutely agree with you on your points about NRF, and meant to imply that in my posting. Institutions know and knew what NRF is. They were fully aware of the transition. It was no secret and they were not stupid.
If you compare NRF to VNQ (reit index) since date of spinoff, or shorter periods, you will find that NRF by and large tracks the index with periodic divergences that subsequently go away. If NRF is getting attacked, then so are other REITS since many exhibit similar patterns. I suspect NRF will show better than index performance for awhile after its inclusion in the index.
At one point, more hedge funds had NRF as a top 5 position than just about any other stock, save Apple (working from memory here). Somebody better let the hedge funds know they own an equity reit and not a mortgage reit.