Reits got overheated and they have since declined about 10%- but that is hardly a turn, at least in my book. In six months or a year we will know it it was the start of a turn, or just noise!
He is clearly still an opportunist. NRF strategy? Whatever they think will work and get funded for the next while. Most all REITS focus on a particular sector.
I know Whitehall closed down, but long after he left. I do not know the history while he was there - he was co-founder, wasn't he? Sometimes companies/funds take a turn after someone leaves (but sometimes that is just a story and the truth is things were like that always).
I agree with you in some respects, and also wonder how things will play out when things turn against REITS, particularly if there is a large amount on margin.
VNQ (proxy for the REIT index) is down substantially today. Earlier in the day, NRF was up while VNQ was down substantially. As I type, NRF is down well less than the index.
Maybe we have to recalibrate and realize that down less than the index is the new up! :)
The idea got traction because they want to believe it will dramatically drive the stock price up (or want to encourage others to believe it will drive the stock price up). If my past experience with index additions holds true, Vanguard Group has already made any open market moves they were going to make, as has every other fund family.
As I have said, people should watch the tape the last 5-10 minutes before close, and continue watching after the close. Then they can try to figure out what happened and why.
Now, the price may still move up, but it is not because volume buyers are driving the price up. Nor is it because volume sellers agree to sell if the price were 20 cents or 30 cents or even a dollar higher. Does not always go up, but sometimes.
SCCO already has $4.2bn of identified capex for 2016/2017 not board approved (not in the budget). They have another $1.8bn with no date specified, and some projects with no $ specified.
There is never a shortage of things to spend capex on. You might be interested in going back and looking at past capex and production forecasts, with the understanding that it is par for the course for large mining projects to get delayed.
Again, watch the tape the last five minutes, then keep watching. Then go back the next day and look at the tape of the day before.
Once in the index, NRF will respond, of course, to company specific results and active management buys and sells, but will also be impacted by index fund flows.
I suspect when you were told before about a private placement that your broker lacked knowledge of what really happened at and around the close.
Many reits have the 9.8% limitation. Look at Major Holders for about any REIT, and Vanguard Group holds more than that. The specific funds do not.
Funds are separate legal entities, with their own boards and tax IDs. They contract with advisors. It would seem they are able to differentiate between fund ownership and fund family/advisor, but I have no specific legal knowledge on this.
Watch the tape (actual transactions trade by trade) the last five minutes before closing on the effective date. Continue to watch after closing.
I would guess the fund families have already started. Hmmm, NRF has outperformed in the last month...
There was speculation going back a long time ago about NRF getting added to the index. The fund families of course, are stupid and lazy and despite their relationships with index providers, there is no way they could have figured that out until the announcement.
dar, I suggest you look up the word divergence and then put it in the context I did. Or as Hans and Franz would say, Read me now, understand me later. (I would quote the Andy Rooney character on SNL, but it would get censored.)
I simply used Yahoo Finance Charts. Do 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year. Can't do 2 year because of the spinoff. Put in 7/1/14 to 5/14/15 and the returns were closer than you calculate. The chart is based on price and oh no! As recently as April 15th or so VNQ had outperformed NRF on price!
From closing price of $75.24 on 7/1 to close of 81.97 on April 15th, VNQ price return was 8.9%. NRF went from 16.80 to 17.80, a return of 6.37%. Up to the close yesterday (sorry if it offends, but I like to use closing prices) - the situation had changed and NRF was up 9% vs 6.7% for VNQ. A one month divergence.
I rarely hang my hat on a one month move in a security that I continue to hold.
If you use the adjusted price, you can do a total return calculation and clearly NRF has done better, which you would expect. Through April 15th it is within 2 percent - 14.2% vs 12.2%. Nice, yes, but a 2% difference is so small as to be noise, easily reversed by a bad day. Of course, the last month made it a larger difference, but again, it is only a one month move.
I stand by what I said. NRF price has largely moved along with the VNQ price with periodic divergences that subsequently reverse. I also said I suspect it will likely outperform going forward. Was that so hard to understand?
No, I absolutely agree with you on your points about NRF, and meant to imply that in my posting. Institutions know and knew what NRF is. They were fully aware of the transition. It was no secret and they were not stupid.
If you compare NRF to VNQ (reit index) since date of spinoff, or shorter periods, you will find that NRF by and large tracks the index with periodic divergences that subsequently go away. If NRF is getting attacked, then so are other REITS since many exhibit similar patterns. I suspect NRF will show better than index performance for awhile after its inclusion in the index.
At one point, more hedge funds had NRF as a top 5 position than just about any other stock, save Apple (working from memory here). Somebody better let the hedge funds know they own an equity reit and not a mortgage reit.
Only through SCCO buybacks for the moment. Grupo has not bought a share since 2012 when I looked a week ago. If SCCO uses the full authorization at current prices, Grupo will get up to just shy of 90% ownership, I believe even counting German's shares. BTW, German personally once built a bigger stake in SCCO and then reduced it significantly, so he is not exclusively an accumulator.
SCCO has $2.8bn capex this year and if divs are maintained,, over $3bn of expenditures. This is not simply borrowing for a buyback, they need to borrow for operations in all likelihood, and if the identified projects in the out years are real, they will need all the cash flow - even from expanded operations - and then some for that.
That said, this is part and parcel of funding continued buyback of shares as I see it.
rog, regarding NRF/NSAM. NRF has certainly changed its focus over time. First it was a debt reit, then an equity reit, then split mgmt co, now splitting off Europe. Europe reads to me like a short term QE related arbitrage opportunity. Was that the master plan when NRF started? Did NRF lack focus? Adapt to changing market conditions? Is Hamamoto the Rodney Dangerfield of the REIT world? Looks for short term opportunities to make some bucks, then changes to the next short term opportunity? Is there a long term strategy?
Frankly, 20% annual returns since the IPO is great (their presentation figure), so why is NRF still yielding close to 9% while other reits are at 4%?
All valid questions to ponder in a longer term context.
Other reits are preparing for a separate asset manager model, for Europe, and without the egregious fees per at least one. Something more palatable to institutional investors.
I suspect this short term move is noise. We will certainly see.
Locally, ind living requires nothing of consequence up front, maybe $500. Asst living often requires $2k.
The continuum of care facilities are the ones where they ask you what your house is worth, and then that amount is the upfront payment, that you are supposed to get back someday. About $250k is the low side for an upfront payment on those. Many are $500k upfront.
dar, an island may be a different comparison. I have first hand experience with multiple relatives and multiple facilities over time in a large metropolitan area. People absolutely move. A perfectly good facility can become a poorly run one overnight under a new manager, too. Probably less movement in smaller communities.
That said, many people stay as well. And people die or move to higher level of care facilities.
Watch Better Call Saul? Overbilling happens. I have firsthand experience (assisted living) and corporate was probably complicit based on how they responded. (Large public company, btw).
My parents wished they had moved into ind living 2-3 years earlier. One died within a year of moving in.
We had two good, though short, nursing home experiences - but if you cannot feed yourself it must be tough. One was rehab and the rehab was great, the rest not so. The second was nursing care, and the care was excellent in a run down old facility. It really comes down to people and we had several good nurses on the wing, a doctor that was accessible (the first nursing home doc was a no-show but bill medicare a lot doc).
The people are far more important than the physical facility.
dean, you say the acquisition is independent living, then every subsequent paragraph references assisted living. They are two quite different animals, though a few assisted living facilities provide so little additional care as to be independent living.
Apart from whether such an acq is good or bad - your premise that residents don't move, require upfront payments and have little new construction is incorrect, at least in my experience.
Continuum of care facilities (ind, asst, and nursing home all in one) often require large upfront payments, but not standalone independent or asst living facilities, at least not in the major market I have direct experience in. When the economy tanked, people moved in droves out of my father's ind living complex. There is a lot of turnover due to death, and to illness. Often when one spouse can no longer stay, the other moves in with the spouse elsewhere or in with one of their children. Two places are more costly!
New construction continues apace. Aging demographics are a easy sell; I suspect they will overbuild as in the past. . A relative lives in a new complex and virtually everyone moved from another independent living complex. You ever heard old people complain? A lot move from facility to facility. Moves are really very easy once downsized - the kids handle everything and the elderly hop in the car and step out in their new place. Easy one afternoon move.
Once in, residents do age and often require home care, which is subject to medicare reimbursement and rules. Due to vacancy, facilities will let residents stay who they would never let come in due to infirmity.
Assisted living is a middle concept that is neither independent nor nursing, and most people I know who have dealt with assisted living had very very poor experiences. That is not true, though, for memory care facilities.
Now, ind living places charge a pretty penny, for sure.
My apologies. I was clicking through (no membership) and dar's posts sandwiched the post I was referring to.
I will remove my original post if it will let me so as to not confuse.