I bought in the 8s - that was a brain $art typo.
(ha, I reread this before submitting, and actually typed 9 again, twice! From now on, maybe I should spell my numbers.)
Well, that is not really true, matt. I posted on the 10th that I bought on the 9th. It was in the 9s.
I am not in the habit of posting my trades - but luckijack and I crossed paths online during the crisis so have a positive history.
dar, do you do any flip trades in taxable accounts? If so, have you ever had any dividend captured (non-reit) be ordinary vs qualified, since it fails the holding period test? I have done some short term trades - rare for me - and they have always said the div was qualified.
1) the CMBS reference was about NRF stock dropping early this year (one of the catalysts of the price drop), creating the buyback opportunity
2) please link any yahoo finance post where I have touted NRF. The only thing I touted was they should buyback stock, should have moved heaven and earth to do so when the stock was cheap. You and I agree they should have but did not.
It is old news. You were not paying attention to what they previously said if you expected significant buy backs in the first quarter. Go read some old posts (I noted it, dar noted it...)
Then again, stand on train tracks, watch the train coming and be surprised when it hits you. Your choice!
I do agree they really botched things up and missed the sub $12, sub '$10 buyback opportunity. Either they had other plans, or were caught by surprise at the rapid price drop early this year, which was fueled by several factors, one of which was deterioration in the CMBS market.
Value.hunter, it seemed pretty clear on the prior earnings call that they did not get a 10b-5 plan in place prior to being blacked out.
That they did any buyback was surprising. If I had to guess it was in a privately negotiated transaction. Different rules apply to such.
I agree, ruswise.
That said, NRF has engaged inv bankers to sell many of their assets. As a perhaps forced seller, bids might be withheld or lowball. A threatened merger might cause an asset buyer to step up.
In any event, we will find out if any of the listed assets have indeed been spoken for soon enough!
Jack, I also posted about this recently. Add up the market caps as of Friday, add up the shares outstanding, divide to get a simply calculated combined price - and NSAM gets the biggest rise, NRF a little pop, but CLNY drops a lot.
I am sure CLNY isn't dumb, so must conclude that at the market based on historical prices may mean something different than Friday's prices. Then again, if CLNY (of which I know nothing) is a house of cards, then any combination is good for them.
This post makes no sense to me. No securities are being placed (sold), so how is there a placement price?
How are there possible bidders when the parties are in exclusive negotiations?
Elsewhere dar posted how the resulting dividend would be about $1.11. I worked it differently than he, but come up with the same conclusion. Call the dividend $1.10 to $1.15. Add the market caps of the entities and divide by the number of shares outstanding (sum of three) and you get a stock price of roughly $13.75 per share.
To retain a $1.60 dividend means they need to find over $200mm in annual savings (don't have the number handy and can't remember if it is low or high $200s).
NRF and CLNY get a div cut. NSAM get a big div increase. At $13.75, NRF gets a stock price bump, NSAM gets a nice jump, and CLNY gets a big drop in price.
This was an extremely top level quick take using very rough number and obviously there are no details. Still, something to think about.
So the solution to a presumably undervalued security (NRF) is to merge it with two other entities in a stock exchange so the other entities' shareholders will benefit from the rise to true value?
In the last year (Yahoo Finance) NRF fell 65%, NSAM 45% and Colony 31%. Notice a trend there?
tacbos, I am unsure what the market believes. My best guess is the mkt believes there will be a recombination transaction that is value destroying for NRF. I have a few thoughts, but no sense listing speculation.
If the stock pops up to 16 the dividend will be largely reflected in the stock price, given NRFs complexity and lack of focus. I don't see NRF as currently constructed being a 4 or 6% yielder, do you?
CAD, like NAV, is a manufactured number. Calculated precisely but with some loosely identified filler items that are significant. (Take a look at NRE's CAD for fun. Can you find Waldo?)
However, the div is covered enough (mav adjusted), such that I saw no risk this quarter.
Seriously, ruswise? On what basis? Obviously, I am posting this with knowledge of the dividend now, but the dividend this quarter at 40c seemed like a slam dunk to me.
I am, indeed.
I have not paid attention to the likely resolution for the last few months. I would be surprised if significant federal cash came to the island. There is a significant contingent that does not even want to allow for a legal restructuring, simply wants to let the creditors duke it out.
Despite the objections, something will be done.