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Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. Message Board

mawchek 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 24, 2014 1:24 PM Member since: Aug 21, 2000
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  • Reply to

    DKS down 3$ since july 3? whats going on?

    by corolla1974 Jul 11, 2014 3:33 PM
    mawchek mawchek Jul 14, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    DKS' Q1 earnings conference call was unusually unsettling with the news that management did not know where the "bottom" was in the deteriorating golf market and that ammunition sales were correcting after many quarters of customer hoarding. It's been well-reported that golf and hunting combined comprise 30% of their revenue. The two issues will take some digestion (and fixing) before things move up to any great extent. On a positive note, all other categories performed very well to expectations.

    I'm a believer that ammo sales will settle as they anniversary prior quarters. It doesn't hurt that shooters burn through ammo at a steady rate. I've seen no reports that shooting sports are turning down. It's the decline in golf that caught so many analysts off guard. Numbers of people who quit the sport in 2013 range from 380K to 1MM. That's quite a hit, especially when the trend shows no sign of a bottom.

    Management is doing the right thing by curtailing space dedicated to golf, blasting out over-stocked inventory (bought a new Tailormade R1 driver myself!) and expanding space for growing areas like women's and youth sports apparel. Margins in these areas are higher than golf, too, which many people don't consider. But what comes of Golf Galaxy? No answer there.

    The whole industry is affected so I give no credence to those proclaiming the end of DKS. Most have an emotional ax to grind that has no place in the discussion. DKS sells popular name-brand merchandise through an outstanding brick-and-mortar presence as well as a well-regarded ecommerce site. In time, perhaps several quarters, I expect to see these bumps resolved. Expect volatility in the meantime.

    Mawchek

  • Reply to

    any opinions on earnings...

    by what_a_manipulation Aug 15, 2014 4:32 PM
    mawchek mawchek Aug 17, 2014 9:02 PM Flag

    My guess is the ODDS favor DKS earnings falling within the $.62/.67 guidance range stated at the last CC if not a small beat. I base this solely on management's good track record of meeting/beating guidance over the years...but we know these aren't normal times. Remember original analyst consensus estimates for Q2 were $.82. I'm sure management put a great deal of thought into the given range with full knowledge of weak ammo sales,the huge decline of golf and reallocation of floor space to better selling SKUs..

    If DKS falls short of Q2 guidance AND they provide weak future guidance, the PPS will be punished. An optimistic outlook will do wonders since sentiment is so bad. JMO.

    Mawchek

  • Reply to

    any opinions on earnings...

    by what_a_manipulation Aug 15, 2014 4:32 PM
    mawchek mawchek Aug 19, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    I haven't listened to the CC replay since I was out golfing this morning. Shot an 85 and drove very well with my new R1 driver ;)

    The earnings PR tells me DKS will be fine in the medium/long term. This company is run by exceptionally competent and driven people. They can't control demographic trends but they know darned well how to adapt to changing times.

    Mawchek

  • Reply to

    any opinions on earnings...

    by what_a_manipulation Aug 15, 2014 4:32 PM
    mawchek mawchek Aug 21, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    Hey, bottomsupinvestor! Welcome to this side of the street. What brings you to DKS? Nice move with KTCC yesterday.

    Mawchek

  • Reply to

    OT: Stock Contest - Week 11

    by bottomsupinvestor Aug 24, 2014 11:58 AM
    mawchek mawchek Aug 24, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    bottomsup, I saw your recent post over on the DKS MB. What brings you to that neighborhood? I've held DKS since shortly after the IPO in 2003. It's not the growth company it once was but should see a nice bounce from its lows.

    Mawchek

DKS
45.20-0.11(-0.24%)Aug 27 4:00 PMEDT

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