The bear raid certainly appears to be done and Q is fighting the market like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised to see it back to mid $60's in the next few days. Doesn't matter to me, I'm here for the long haul...Just enjoying the action!!!
The investigation (as originally planned) was probably over a few months ago...And I'm about as confident as I could be (without 100% certainty) that the guilty party is Fresenius staff dropping the ball on the 3 fatalities anaphylactic reactions. IF this is such, no reason
Twists and turns from there were most likely with Takeda trying (negotiating) to make sure Fresenius would be retained as primary distribution channel for Omontys leading to the Omontys DNA test that Fresenius' Chairman discussed in conference call a couple of months ago. Medical professionals said that test should take just a few months. So my best guess is that this gets resolved and Omontys returned either this Quarter or next.
Pharmaman, OK YOU'RE ON FOR DOUBLE OR NOTHING FOR $200 Q share price (I'm taking the "over") by December 31, 2014 !!!
THE PRIZES---BOTTLES OF 25 YEAR OLD MCCALLAN (or just a 25 year old beautiful blond???)...Just kidding...The McC is all I could handle at my age :-)
They might be able to play for another few days, but Q is already within range of their earnings date and with some volatility it should just keep ascending as that date approaches. I know I would be very concerned with having an exit strategy already in place if I was short Q !!!
I'm neutral (sold out position at a profit) but got in based on a friend's suggestion then got active for a while but dropped out. Anyway, couldn't find any news...did they hit their October 1 target? Or make any statement regarding such? I think this is probably a very good long term play if they do deliver, but unfortunately my area of expertise is pharma/biotech NOT technology so I really am not a well informed investor (and got clobbered during the end of the tech bubble in 2000/2001 as a result).
I'm now thinking that McCallans may pick up almost as much money from all of this as Texas Childrens Hospital. I should send them a note asking THEM to make a donation to TCH :-)
PJ, nope, we both have it right. All Q has to do is cross $90 between now and 12/31/13 and I win. If it only gets to $89.99 P-Man takes it (though we do have a special provision for near miss either way :-) Under such circumstance, we will both go out and get our own 25 year McC and get drunk as skunks (which neither of us has done in at least 30 years) while talking on the phone celebrating what will be a victory for both of us (and the rest of you)!!! Hey, maybe we should make that a conference call :-)
It appears from history that any of their buybacks have been to cover options based compensation and effectively has kept share balance in check. The GREAT NEWS is that this year options will be granted ONLY if they achieve 100% of their goals!!! I'm guessing that we will all be very happy to see them get every possible option available to them under this executive compensation program :-)
Without those shorts, I'd have never gotten most of my position below $20!!! And just about everyone else here who is long owes them (AND WILL OWE THEM A HELL OF A LOT MORE) for their generous, if not preposterous, gifts of insanity!!!
I don't drink that much so I'm not sure I'll be done with the first bottle by the end of 2014 :-)
PHARMAMAN IS ALWAYS CONTRIBUTING SUBSTANCE!!! We all are grateful for your contributions.
Let me take this info just a step further using the numbers from my model:
As most of you know my model has been quite accurate thus far (exception Q1 where there were a number of one time events that nobody expected). So let me recap current EPS views and apply the information provided by P-Man. ALL of the following estimates are non-gaap:
Q3 EPS $1.65
Q4 EPS $1.95
2013 TOTAL EPS $5.73 (using Q1 and Q2 actuals)
The average P/E of the above 6 biotechs/pharmas= 41X
41 X $5.73= $235
And FWIW, I am estimating 2014 non-gaap EPS will be AT LEAST $7.00 (X 41=$287 !!!)
While these calculations are perhaps skewed optimistically, the key insight is that at $59 per share (at 30% 5 year forecasted ANALYSTT CONSENSUS annual growth rate), QCOR IS PROFOUNDLY UNDERVALUED ANY WAY YOU WANT TO LOOK AT IT.
And I've got a 25 year old bottle of McCallan bet with our friend Pharmaman that Q will cross the $90 mark before the end of 2013...He KNOWS he's going to lose this bet and I'm sure will be delighted to pay off his gambling debt :-)
The shorts who have periodically controlled interim movements have just about run out of time to cover as Q approaches another outstanding Quarter...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IS ALL OF THE STRATEGIC CLINICAL INITIATIVES UNDERWAY and that Q has barely cracked the surface on their 19 APPROVED INDICATIONS!!!
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT Q WILL SUBSTANTIALLY OUTPERFORM JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER OPPORTUNITY (other than perhaps newly FDA approved drugs by not yet commercial biotechs). As I have said now for close to a year, QCOR is the single best biotech/pharma industry investment I may have ever seen (and you know I have seen many in my years) and remains so as far out as any of us can forecast.
He made a great post earlier today on updates from Oxford (I think) expanding coverage. He's got a busy consulting gig for quite a while, so we'll be seeing less of him, but I'm sure he'll be lurking and posting when he can.
With a 15 month window BOTH make sense to buy right now, though they have very different potential outcomes. Affy, as you probably know, is BINARY...It will pay off huge or go under (highly unlikely in my opinion, but it has to be considered a possibility)...WHEN (if) Omontys is returned to market 10X or more is likely in the buyout. The good news on Affy is that they have a comfortable balance sheet with all but contingent (legal) liabilities paid off and an extremely low burn rate. By my last calculation this amounted to YEARS of waiting time and the results of the investigation WILL CERTAINLY NOT TAKE YEARS!!!
Q is both a STRATEGIC AND CASH MACHINE!!! 15 months from now it should easily be well over $100 and probably closer to $150-$200 just on current trajectory and a more rational P/E ratio.
Announcement this morning!!! Sorry, haven't been able to figure out how to get it posted (got it in an email with link to PDF). I'll keep trying.
Like Obamacare or not, it is definitely beneficial to companies like Questcor. This is particularly true given that all insurance providers will be REQUIRED TO ALLOW EVERYONE IN REGARDLESS OF PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS!!! And one certainly should assume that some number of those newly insured will be ones that are currently receiving the beneficence of Questcor who gives Acthar away or deeply discounted to those who are uninsured or underinsured...EFFECTIVE TODAY, those will be "PAYING CUSTOMERS" as soon as they sign up for Obamacare!!!
Joe...I think your analysis is spot on though he used the still fragile recovery as the pretext for his reluctance to postpone the tapering announcement that was expected. Put a cushion in against insane politics pending (regardless of which side you are on). Brilliant move actually!!!
Oddly, you relentlessly tell people what to do with their money, whereas I post analysis (and a continued tracking of your lies so nobody falls prey to your malintentions). I've never suggested to anybody that they buy Affymax ...BUT YOU'VE TOLD PEOPLE TO GET OUT OR HOW TO GET OUT ON COUNTLESS OCCASIONS...Now why is it that you would suggest in any way THAT IN THIS EQUATION I WOULD BE THE BAD GUY, EH? ps...THIS IS ALL FAR FROM OVER, AFFY HAS MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF IN HIBERNATION UNTIL THE INVESTIGATION IS DONE...And then if (WHEN) Omontys is returned to the market everything you have said (and hopefully your total short position) will come crashing down like a house of cards and I like so many others here will not shed a single tear for you!!!