Anyone with my email address is free to verify. I apologize to all for being off-line not standing in defense of what was clearly a bear raid based on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!! NOTHING HAS CHANGED and the so called downgrade makes NO SENSE (either way) because as almost all of us KNOW the outcome of Omontys and therefor Affymax is 100% BINARY!!! And I have not changed my convictions one iota that this "binary event" will break towards the return of Omontys and a buyout of Affymax by Takeda!!!
With approx. $7.00 EPS in 2014 ($5.73 in 2013), the forward P/E is now about 8X on a company that has analyst consensus on 5 year forward growth at 30%!!! So PEG equilibrium (1.00) would suggest P/E of 30X...which would indicate a PPS of $200+++ in 2014 or a DOUBLE DOUBLE from here!!!
With the kind of performance history and strategic footprint under their belt (PROVEN) I would be aggressively buying ANY company that had this profile unless there was a known and compelling existential threat...which is absolutely NOT the case here.
The ULTIMATE JUDAS SHEEP who has worked feverishly along with the BASH TRASH WHACK PACK to do as much damage to the longs as possible...You know who...GODWINPEAK !!! The master of cherry picking and manipulating information to prey upon those who just don't know what Affymax Binary means...OMONTYS IS COMING BACK WHETHER GWP LIKES IT OR NOT...
WARNING---GWP, COVER WHILE YOU CAN...YOUR DAYS ARE NUMBERED!!!
$1.65 Q3 EPS (non-gaap)...$1.95 Q4 EPS (non-gaap)=$5.73 2013 EPS (non-gaap) which is now a P/E of 9.5 on a stock that has a 30% 5 year growth analyst consensus forecast and should already be heading toward $100 !!! Play your games if you want...all you're doing is making money for long term longs who KNOW this is a ridiculous game!!!
First, any of you who have my email address, feel free to verify this is really me MAXDAD (aka david)!!!
Second, we have witnessed the kind of attack we saw yesterday on several occasions in the past and for those who have maintained a long term LONG view, this was just another manifestation of short desperation as we have seen Q more than TRIPLE since the first attacks took place just one year ago. AND THEY KNOW that one year from now that Q could easily TRIPLE AGAIN!!!
Q3=$1.65.......Q4=$1.95...........2013 total=$5.73 and based on the vial numbers I have seen we are still COMPLETELY ON TRACK!!!
PS...GOOD TO BE BACK :-) ... at least until THEY do it to me again :-)
Announcement this morning!!! Sorry, haven't been able to figure out how to get it posted (got it in an email with link to PDF). I'll keep trying.
JUST IN THE US ALONE...Not my number, was the result of an extensive study. Solution with FDA was to put an additional warning on the bottle top!!! And there are people here who are certain that the 3 fatalities is enough to keep Omontys off the market...NOT A CHANCE!!!
The agency focused in on the plant's quality control unit, saying it was relying on customers to identify proble in an effort to hit specifications. It documented employees confessing to manipulating data to hide problems from the agency. They told inspectors that when it was known there was going to be an inspection, high-pressure liquid chromatography equipment and personnel computers were removed from the plant to "conceal data manipulations."
And there were so many bash trash saying "COULDN'T POSSIBLY FRESENIUS' PROBLEM"...RIGHT!!!
German drugmaker Fresenius received a scathing warning letter in July for a drug plant in India. Now, a blood-products plant in Puerto Rico has been sent a warning for a labeling issue which the agency said should have been resolved months, even years ago.
The FDA Tuesday posted the letter that the drugmaker's Fenwal operation received for an inspection in April, a follow-up to a 2012 visit. Primarily, the agency was concerned about the company's failure to document and investigate customer complaints about mislabeled bags even although the products had already been shipped. "Our inspection in 2012, and the current inspection, found that you have received multiple consumer complaints related to mislabeled bags, inadequate bag size, defective product components, and product mix-ups" that were left unresolved.
Further, in a repeat violation, the plant was criticized for not writing a procedure to make sure that products get the right labels and procedures to "prevent mix-ups and cross-contamination" by keeping different products separated from each other, even though the facility has been getting complaints since 2010 about the problem. The agency was also upset that the plant still wasn't submitting field alert reports, or FARs, even though it was told in 2012 that it needed to. As a result, the company now is having to recall its Adsol blood preservative as well as an anticoagulant solution, the FDA pointed out.
The agency focused in on the plant's quality control unit, saying it was relying on customers to identify problems that should have been corrected at the plant. The complaints show that the unit is not "fulfilling its responsibility to assure the identity, strength, quality, and purity of your licensed biological drug product(s)," the letter says.
In July, the company's oncolytic API plant in Kalyani, India, was savaged in a warning letter that said employees lied about having blended APIs that failed quality tests into batches that passed in an effort
UP ABOUT $5.00 IN PAST WEEK OR SO also on a generally nasty market.
Maybe shorts that drove it down realized that they were going to get eviscerated !!!
You know you keep saying this when it is 100% obvious that the "DUMP" side of Affymax has come as a result of all the dirty tricks you guys have used (and I include the possibility of hacking three of my ID's as a possibility...I know you have the motive, whether or not you have the ability is still questionable)...but maybe one of your tribe does. YOU ARE A KNOWN CON ARTIST AND HAVE BEEN CLASSIFIED AS SUCH FOR MANY MONTHS NOW...THE "DUMPS" ARE CERTAINLY NOT COMING FROM MY SIDE...I HAVE EVERY SHARE I'VE EVER HAD!!!
You should all know my estimates at this point but I'd like to reiterate one point--- Being short here is as or more insane as it was during the battles of a year ago with incredible performance, major new strategic initiatives and 13 Beats out of the past 14 Quarters...SO, SHORTS APPEAR to have decided to play Russian Roulette with a FULLY LOADED REVOLVER!!! Beyond my comprehension that they still believe this is a game worth playing!!!
Anyway, here's analyst consensus on Q (from Yahoo)...
Mean Recommendation (this week): 1.5
Mean Recommendation (last week): 1.3
* (Strong Buy) 1.0 - 5.0 (Sell)
Price Target Summary
Mean Target: 76.70
Median Target: 76.50
High Target: 90.00
Low Target: 65.00
No. of Brokers: 10
Data provided by Thomson/First Call
Not only am I sticking by my $1.65 non-gaap EPS for next month's Q3 EPS, but I'll stick my neck out and say that the PPS WILL BREAK $80's after earnings.
BTW, I have a bet for a 25 year old bottle of McCallan with our favorite Pharmaman with my side saying we WILL breach $90 before end of year. He has told me that this is a bet he can't wait to lose :-)
egendary investor Warren Buffett advises to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. One way we can try to measure the level of fear in a given stock is through a technical analysis indicator called the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which measures momentum on a scale of zero to 100. A stock is considered to be oversold if the RSI reading falls below 30.
In trading on Friday, shares of Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASD: QCOR) entered into oversold territory, hitting an RSI reading of 28.4, after changing hands as low as $54.36 per share. By comparison, the current RSI reading of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is 57.7. A bullish investor could look at QCOR’s 28.4 RSI reading today as a sign that the recent heavy selling is in the process of exhausting itself, and begin to look for entry point opportunities on the buy side.
Every Quarter I've been told my EPS estimates have been overly aggressive, but they're built from the bottom up using a model which is an exact duplicate of Q's financial reporting. Other than Q1 where there were totally unexpected one time events that caught everyone flat footed, my model's estimates have been on or within a few cents (always a few cents too low) of actuals. So what will be said when it hits the target again...Still got LUCKY? This is what HARD ANALYSIS is all about and I can guarantee you that I spend far more time on this than any analyst on the street has the time to do (one of the benefits of retirement :-)
Gimme a break you con man...I have many people who believe YOU or your cronies have been hacking my account. I don't think any of you are smart enough!!!
Based on my personal/professional experience no more than 1-2% of these claims ever wind up resulting in a material judgment. These are "ambulance chaser" class actions and are generally regarded as legal blackmail with the attorney's for the plaintiff's hoping to get a small NUISANCE settlement (to avoid any litigation costs) and plaintiffs getting virtually NOTHING when (IF) that even should occur. The fact that the judge has already thrown out several of the claims and allowed in all evidence proposed by Questcor pretty much tells the whole story (Oh, OTHER THAN THERE IS NO CASE!!!) of how this will ultimately play out!!!
And it doesn't take an ivy league degree to realize the guy's completely delusional...If minimally at the level that anyone here would take him the slightest bit seriously!!!