I played the options route on ECT up until the end of Oct. Had a $10 March 22'14 date. Bought in for .55 a contract. I exited on the 30th for .65 because of reading your materials / arguments against this trust. Thank you.
I am sorry for the loss everyone is now taking on this. I have been burned many times before... Don't listen to the haters, you saved me a bundle.
I'd like to thank Liza for helping a slow learner to these trusts... Div has been reduced and I don't see it rising anytime soon. This thing will see $6 - 7 before this time next year without Nat Gas reaching $5 - 6. Sold options on Friday. 10% profit. Not great, but better than losing it all today.
Just look at the chart data and then check any of the other trusts: WHZ, WHX, SDR, CHKR... All are down since inception...
Now I think there will be a bump up in the coming year, but for anyone playing this as a trade in the short-term, I think they are about to get burned. Again, just my thoughts. Also, if I'm wrong then that's great! However, I am ditching most of my options tomorrow and getting ready to buy the ~$9ish price and hold.
After further study of ECT, the trends, past quarters, price of Natty Gas, and other trusts, I think Thursday AH is the end of $10+ for the remainder of the year. ECT will follow the trend of its peers and hit somewhere around $9 with a slight run up to its ex-div date. Financials aren't going to be that spectacular and that should send it down a good %
Just my thoughts again. I think this might be worth a bit more in the future, but just don't see it happening until 2014 - 2015.
Keeping some April $10 calls around though. But after Thursday, I'm out.
Cause it's about the div to price paid per share. Anything under $10.42 book value is easy money. You can average down a high of the day $10.95 with a $10.10 price and get right in the range of a $10.50 s/p. Coincidence with a $10.42 book value? Today was just a run up to earnings.
Still not out of range of 11 by the date. Tomorrow will tell the tale I'm afraid. Nat gas numbers coming and then ECA earnings on Wednesday. It shall be bumpy...
Bought a Oct 19 $6 call. Went in the money and closed on Friday @ .90 By my calculations, I should have bought 100 shares of SD @ $6.
eTrade is showing my price paid @ 6.59 a share. I normally just trade options and have never let one close and assign shares before... Have I missed something basic and fundamental in the underlying price, lol?
Forgive my ignorance--trying to learn!
History would put it around the 16 - 22 of Nov. I'd expect an announcement sometime this week. Div run up until then.
I've been keeping an eye on this one for a bit now and I think I have noticed a trend that is of value for the next week coming.
The run up to distribution always seems to start near the 18th of the preceding month. Thinking we get a distro around the 18th of Nov based on history. That would put the run up start sometime around this Thurs / Fri (assuming no debt disaster). Thoughts?
I'm in @ 9.45 by the way.
Huge dip = easy $ in the next 3 - 7 days! Why would anyone look at this except as AAPL on sale? Buy some cheap calls and ride em all the way back to $500+ before earnings. Just. Like. Last. Time.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I keep posting to my own topic... Hope someone else is looking at this in the next couple of days. Based on my amateur chart reading, I believe this is about to break below the 50ma and headed to a low around $19 or even $18 in or around the earnings--might make one last run towards $21.50 on debt ceiling / budget agreement around the 30th.
Anyone around to test my thoughts on?
Sentiment: Strong Sell
After watching this for the past couple of months, I have to agree. I see it returning to the sub 30's by the year end. However, I do like the stock as a long-term holding. I'm a chuy's fan and see the growth potential over a 5-10 year period. I would like a $20 - 25 average cost basis though...
I'm long as well, but have to agree--get ready for a whole lot of volatility the next couple of days... If you need your trading fix, just trade the VIX tomorrow and Wed.