That puts the stock within hollering distance of $20 which has been my assessment as well. It's the basis of my hanging in there in the wake of the plunge from $8. It's risk - reward. Pot odds at work. All we need to be is...right.
"Low stock price will attract buyout offers for sure. Maybe that is what has been the plan all along!"
It's currently a 6.6 Billion dollar market cap. It will soon have over $1 B in cash with the remaining payments from Jansen and its cash flow from the sales of Imbruvica. It may have that already. Below $80 I'll be buying again and I already have a boat load. J&J has Duggan's phone number. They are the only likely player in a takeout. It won't be done because the price of the stock has fallen and made a lot of nervous nellies unhappy however. Duggan could care less and J&J really doesn't care. They have a good idea of what the long term prospects are and of what that's worth. If they decide to do a deal J&J will have someone perfectly willing to continue on as is to negotiate with and they know it. They will have to make a fair and an attractive offer or there will be no deal. Frankly I don't see why they'd want the other half unless they are having trouble dealing with Duggan and want to get rid of him. I doubt that's the case.
"All my instincts tell me to cut him some slack. If he pulls off successful Cabo entries in prostate, renal, and hepatic cancers he'll be regarded as a genius.
We'll see... "
I have been arguing this exact point for going on 3 years. How we got to this juncture will soon be irrelevant. If Cabo is successful he's a hero...if not he's a bum. It's that simple...and you're right..."we'll see".
"Another risk is dilutive financing at a low share price. Well, I would hope that this time the BoD would call it quits and force the company into selling itself. The risk of both co-BRIM and Comet-1 failing is very low, but not zero. This is biotech. "
You make it sound like dumping the company at a low price is somehow superior from the existing shareholders point of view to raising cash at a low price. How does that math work exactly?
"My condolences for your losses.i have felt the pain of similar loss.Your losses have embittered you, but you mustn't let them blind you as well."
Me too as far as the losses go...so far anyway. The drugs are being developed, and the drug companies exist to help patients not to make the slavering shareholders ill-gotten gains.Those potential gains are a by product of the huge effort that goes into both conquering a disease (or at least mitigating its impact on individual human beings) and circumventing an unnecessarily bureaucratic FDA which is working just as hard as any tumor known to man to kill as many patients as possible. Our job as investors is to locate potential and then test management to see if they are honest and up to snuff. Things are not always going to go our way in this riskiest of enterprises and certainly they won't always play out on our time schedule. So far I see nothing in the Cabo experience to dissuade me from keeping a sizable bet on the table which is not to say that I have ever thought my odds of "winning", whatever that might mean, were any better than 50-50. That's pretty good in a game where the house routinely stacks the odds against you.
I figured you were about my age (65) based on your knowledge of, and appreciation for, blues music. Especially rural acoustic. Anywhooo...at $10 I am still buying you and your good buddy the peckerwood (who haunts this board to this day I suppose (I have had him on Ignore for what seems like years thankfully and his name escapes me...thankfully). Montana, California, Canada...doesn't matter where.The beer is on me especially if you've been through the wars the past 2 or 3 years. I think our odds of ultimately being right are 50-50 which is outrageously good in this outrageously risky business. I used to drill oil wells for a living...somehow that seems tame by comparison and far less consequential.
Be safe...or as safe as you can be in a forest fire. We need to find a spot to have a beer when EXEL hits $10 as a result of Cabo in some shape or form being approved for some purpose for mcrpc. What a tasty beer that would be. I like them hoppy but that one would be sweet.
"I see a different measuring stick being applied to EXEL, and possibly a new set of metrics being applied across the board in biotech."
Absolutely agree. I have culled all but 2 of my spec biotechs months ago (EXEL and GIDYL). The other 2 are GILD and PCYC which have real and growing sales. I have been warning anyone who would listen for the past 6 months that eventually biotechs were going to get wacked and then the ones that would prosper would be ones who had actual products with actual revenue. It happened a little sooner than I thought. I would say with EXEL that the current market cap (about $650 mm) makes this a potentially spectacular investment if COMET I leads to approval. Again I give that a coin flip 50-50 chance. I hang around because if we get lucky I personally think we will see a $4 to $5 billion market cap. Not right away obviously but PDQ. If it doesn't happen we still have a bailout with COMET II which should at least justify $ 1 Billion market cap when taken with Cobi and the current tiny approved indication. In other words I like the risk-reward. If both the COMETS #$%$ out...well...never mind.
"Cobi will keep Roche's attention in the short term, but placing a credible, all-encompassing valuation on Cabo will necessarily mean waiting for approvable results in ProsCa, RCC, & HCC."
Wilder, not to beat a deceased horse but I'm more optimistic than what you indicate above. I believe that if Cabo is approved for prostate, and thus has 2 indications approved by the dullards and sloths at the FDA, it will get credit immediately in the Market for liver and kidney and perhaps lung. EXEL , at the very least, will become an intriguing target for Roche and perhaps others at that point. Admittedly it's a big IF on prostate approval and I no longer have the house bet on that happening. Just the living room, master bedroom, and powder bath at this point.
Thanks for the clarification.
I agree it's risky and I'm putting my money on COMET II and Cobi and hoping like heck that COMET I comes through as well. It's 50-50 in my mind , however, but I think if the FDA won't approve it for prostate cancer based on COMET I they will know that they have COMET II to fall back on and approve it on that basis. If COMET I is successful I think we will get immediate credit in the stock price for Renal and Liver, fair or not.
"...you have institutional money making the bets, not retail investors. "
Do you know this for a fact ( and if so how) or are you guessing? Nothing wrong with making an educated guess but if that's the case it should be so labeled.
Thanks. I get it about Cabo OS results. At this relatively tiny valuation I thought they could have perhaps gotten a 25 cent boost from the results posted on Cobi. This stock is unloved and is going to have to show more than just a little leg to get a reaction from the Market...I guess. I hope they don't recoil in the management suite over a little full frontal nudity. A girl's gotta do what she's gotta do.
I've been out of town and got back and read with interest the press release on Cobi. It appeared to me to be satisfactory and certainly not a negative...and yet...the stock didn't seem to respond and the Market yawned. I know the data divulged was an interim and there's a ways to go yet but do you have any insight into why the Market seems to have just shrugged it off? After all EXEL is now a $679 MM market cap. Add $50mm or so of revenue to the mix and it matters...or maybe it doesn't...Thanks
For most of the sub $1 B biotechs without a real product I'd say your reasoning makes sense. Certainly the sell off sector wide has impacted EXEL as well. We are now, however...for better or worse...down to the gonad cutting. There comes a time in every (well most) young biotech when it's put up or shut up. If both COMETS fail it's going to get very ugly around here. If they succeed it won't matter what the rest of the biotech market is doing...and if they succeed and Cobi succeeds, and then we get good news on Meteor and Celestial...it could be a $20 stock. Granted the odds are long of all of that good news going our way but we can always ask Jesus in our nightly prayers for a little help on the cancer front (and slip in it wouldn't hurt if it was an EXEL drug that you worked your will through). I do agree that the sell off was overdone. I sold out in the $4 and above range and then bought it back around $3.30. I think Cobi could support that price assuming they stopped with all of the trial expenditures on Cabo.
Well said Wilder. The collapse of the stock after the non-event of a continuation of a trial...rather than...who knows what was expected...has brought out the cockroaches in force. I spend 1/2 of my time on this board ignoring people who weren't here 6 weeks ago. Perhaps they will prove to be right...but if so it will be a lucky guess on their part. Besides betting against any particular drug assures you of being right 4 out of 5 times. It takes guts and commitment to bet significant amounts of money and spend significant amounts of time and intellectual capacity on one of these cancer drugs all of the time knowing that the odds are always against you. But it's sweet when you are right. I like our odds.