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YM BioSciences, Inc. Ordinary S Message Board

mbbf49a 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 4, 2014 7:04 AM Member since: Oct 9, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Sonnier's comments

    by wildbiftek Sep 3, 2014 10:50 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Sep 4, 2014 7:04 AM Flag

    Wilderguide

    Thanks for all of the effort and insight you brought to this 3 year adventure.

    You did it with humor often but I was always aware of how much effort you put into what you wrote and how prepared you were before you commenced opining or offering alternative takes on certain facts. You did the grunt work , along with a couple of other valuable posters Ernie,Clem, wildbiftek, oncodoc, and others that provided the insights into just how valuable Cabo could become...if the various trials panned out. I did my analysis of the drugs prospects based on my own initial reading of the phase ii results and the amount of activity Cabo was inspiring amongst cancer researchers at several prestigious cancer centers around the country. I also took into account how many smart people on this board supported this drug and thought it had a reasonable chance to succeed and meet an unmet need. I concluded that the trial had about a 50-50 chance of succeeding, maybe a little less. Additionally that if it did succeed it would soon become a $20 stock and if it failed it would quickly become a $2 stock. I stayed in the game because I found those pot odds compelling and I was comforted that some very smart people read it the same way on this message board. It didn't work out. It's a risky business this drug development business but it was worth a shot. I lost about $120 k in EXEL but made many times over that during this same time period in PCYC, GILD, and several smaller opportunities that I cashed in on during this 3 year period. You can't win them all. I sincerely thank you, Ernie, oncodoc, wildbiftek,clem, and all of the others that made a positive contribution on this board. I'll miss reading you guys . Bon Chance and perhaps our trails will cross again in another nook of biotechland.

    BR

  • Reply to

    Prednisone arm - switch to Xtandi or Xofigo

    by stoptrolling Aug 21, 2014 10:02 AM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Aug 21, 2014 9:51 PM Flag

    Exactly so, doc. Well said.

  • Reply to

    Wow

    by csanderson1805 Aug 15, 2014 6:03 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Aug 17, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    At $100mmm per year, assuming you gave up on funding further Cabo research or just sold the right to Cobi to Roche, you should have something worth in the neighborhood of $500mm. The impact of positive results from COMET I could really send this stock on a wild ride. If it drops to the $1.40 price you suggested if Cabo is a bust in the COMET I trial it's a buy as a result of both Cobi and hepatic and renal cell trials. I'd just as soon not have that buying opportunity , however.

  • Reply to

    Roche

    by saltydog711 Jul 20, 2014 11:59 AM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jul 21, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    I seriously doubt they are as well. I've never seen Big Pharma, which is phenomenally bureaucratic and rigid, go off the reservation and start acting like Bill Ackman. I hope somebody buys EXEL and Roche is a very good candidate but not because they are short the stock...and not any time in the next 90 days given all of the news in the pipeline.

  • Reply to

    Roche

    by saltydog711 Jul 20, 2014 11:59 AM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jul 21, 2014 6:51 AM Flag

    "Ask yourself this: "What becomes of the short position if that short is also the aquirer of the shorted company?" "

    Wilder...I believe they get returned to their rightful owners from whom they were borrowed at a much higher price unless they were borrowed naked. That's not allowed but sometimes happens...but not on the scale you are describing. Presumably the short position you are describing is a hedge and Roche, if indeed they even hold convertibles and a large short position, would make more money on the converts than they would lose on the short. The only time I'm aware that you can ride a short to zero and not cover is when there's a formal bankruptcy filing.

  • Reply to

    Roche may well buy EXEL but...

    by mbbf49a Jul 14, 2014 9:15 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jul 14, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    I agree. I'll probably just sit tight and sleep walk through the rest of this story, however. I have a relatively smallish position now (20,000 shares plus some Jan. calls). I have a substantial but tolerable loss, a fear that things will now likely get worse before they get much better, and the conviction that EXEL will ultimately make good with Cabo and make me some money over and above recouping my losses. It likely won't be easy or pretty, however. I'm going to try not to pay too much attention and just wait and see if my long held faith in Cabo proves well founded.

  • it will be for $4 if the COMETS fail...and for $20 if they succeed. In other words it won't happen soon...unless they are willing to bet a lot of money on the come or EXEL management has given up on Cabo which I doubt is the case. If COMET I makes the grade we may well have a deal . I'm inclined to think it won't but Cabo will still be approved technically on the basis of COMET II but will find a wider use in Prostate ca. Then there's the thorny valuation issues regarding Renal, liver, and lung. It's going to take a big number to get it done if Cabo is approved for prostate cancer and I think it will be...but not soon. Hope I'm wrong and COMET I ends the suspense and the roller coaster ride.

  • Reply to

    CoBRiM

    by csanderson1805 Jul 14, 2014 2:27 AM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jul 14, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    Ernie

    Does Cabo get approved in 2015 with a non statsig OS in COMET I and a good outcome with COMET II? My guess is it does and thus first we go down, perhaps, and then we go way back up...I hope. And then there's RCC and liver and lung which are all good candidates and we should get some credit for them in the Market once Cabo is approved for 2 indications...I hope. I'd very interested in your thoughts...and anyone else's who is knowledgeable , more or less, on your level...a small handful that group.

  • Reply to

    Liver and Skin cancers on rise in UK

    by wilderguide Jun 22, 2014 12:34 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jun 23, 2014 12:12 AM Flag

    I considered adding sunscreen to my beer also but decided in favor of wearing a ball cap while I drank.

  • Reply to

    Seeking a Real Analyst

    by duckduffer Jun 19, 2014 3:53 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jun 20, 2014 7:52 AM Flag

    That puts the stock within hollering distance of $20 which has been my assessment as well. It's the basis of my hanging in there in the wake of the plunge from $8. It's risk - reward. Pot odds at work. All we need to be is...right.

  • Reply to

    Looks like the 52 week low could be broken

    by tonisasuage Jun 19, 2014 3:32 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jun 19, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    "Low stock price will attract buyout offers for sure. Maybe that is what has been the plan all along!"

    Yeah... right.

    It's currently a 6.6 Billion dollar market cap. It will soon have over $1 B in cash with the remaining payments from Jansen and its cash flow from the sales of Imbruvica. It may have that already. Below $80 I'll be buying again and I already have a boat load. J&J has Duggan's phone number. They are the only likely player in a takeout. It won't be done because the price of the stock has fallen and made a lot of nervous nellies unhappy however. Duggan could care less and J&J really doesn't care. They have a good idea of what the long term prospects are and of what that's worth. If they decide to do a deal J&J will have someone perfectly willing to continue on as is to negotiate with and they know it. They will have to make a fair and an attractive offer or there will be no deal. Frankly I don't see why they'd want the other half unless they are having trouble dealing with Duggan and want to get rid of him. I doubt that's the case.

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