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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

mbbf49a 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2014 9:51 PM Member since: Oct 9, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Prednisone arm - switch to Xtandi or Xofigo

    by stoptrolling Aug 21, 2014 10:02 AM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Aug 21, 2014 9:51 PM Flag

    Exactly so, doc. Well said.

  • Reply to


    by csanderson1805 Aug 15, 2014 6:03 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Aug 17, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    At $100mmm per year, assuming you gave up on funding further Cabo research or just sold the right to Cobi to Roche, you should have something worth in the neighborhood of $500mm. The impact of positive results from COMET I could really send this stock on a wild ride. If it drops to the $1.40 price you suggested if Cabo is a bust in the COMET I trial it's a buy as a result of both Cobi and hepatic and renal cell trials. I'd just as soon not have that buying opportunity , however.

  • Reply to


    by saltydog711 Jul 20, 2014 11:59 AM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jul 21, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    I seriously doubt they are as well. I've never seen Big Pharma, which is phenomenally bureaucratic and rigid, go off the reservation and start acting like Bill Ackman. I hope somebody buys EXEL and Roche is a very good candidate but not because they are short the stock...and not any time in the next 90 days given all of the news in the pipeline.

  • Reply to


    by saltydog711 Jul 20, 2014 11:59 AM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jul 21, 2014 6:51 AM Flag

    "Ask yourself this: "What becomes of the short position if that short is also the aquirer of the shorted company?" "

    Wilder...I believe they get returned to their rightful owners from whom they were borrowed at a much higher price unless they were borrowed naked. That's not allowed but sometimes happens...but not on the scale you are describing. Presumably the short position you are describing is a hedge and Roche, if indeed they even hold convertibles and a large short position, would make more money on the converts than they would lose on the short. The only time I'm aware that you can ride a short to zero and not cover is when there's a formal bankruptcy filing.

  • Reply to

    Roche may well buy EXEL but...

    by mbbf49a Jul 14, 2014 9:15 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jul 14, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    I agree. I'll probably just sit tight and sleep walk through the rest of this story, however. I have a relatively smallish position now (20,000 shares plus some Jan. calls). I have a substantial but tolerable loss, a fear that things will now likely get worse before they get much better, and the conviction that EXEL will ultimately make good with Cabo and make me some money over and above recouping my losses. It likely won't be easy or pretty, however. I'm going to try not to pay too much attention and just wait and see if my long held faith in Cabo proves well founded.

  • it will be for $4 if the COMETS fail...and for $20 if they succeed. In other words it won't happen soon...unless they are willing to bet a lot of money on the come or EXEL management has given up on Cabo which I doubt is the case. If COMET I makes the grade we may well have a deal . I'm inclined to think it won't but Cabo will still be approved technically on the basis of COMET II but will find a wider use in Prostate ca. Then there's the thorny valuation issues regarding Renal, liver, and lung. It's going to take a big number to get it done if Cabo is approved for prostate cancer and I think it will be...but not soon. Hope I'm wrong and COMET I ends the suspense and the roller coaster ride.

  • Reply to


    by csanderson1805 Jul 14, 2014 2:27 AM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jul 14, 2014 8:25 AM Flag


    Does Cabo get approved in 2015 with a non statsig OS in COMET I and a good outcome with COMET II? My guess is it does and thus first we go down, perhaps, and then we go way back up...I hope. And then there's RCC and liver and lung which are all good candidates and we should get some credit for them in the Market once Cabo is approved for 2 indications...I hope. I'd very interested in your thoughts...and anyone else's who is knowledgeable , more or less, on your level...a small handful that group.

  • Reply to

    Liver and Skin cancers on rise in UK

    by wilderguide Jun 22, 2014 12:34 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jun 23, 2014 12:12 AM Flag

    I considered adding sunscreen to my beer also but decided in favor of wearing a ball cap while I drank.

  • Reply to

    Seeking a Real Analyst

    by duckduffer Jun 19, 2014 3:53 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jun 20, 2014 7:52 AM Flag

    That puts the stock within hollering distance of $20 which has been my assessment as well. It's the basis of my hanging in there in the wake of the plunge from $8. It's risk - reward. Pot odds at work. All we need to be is...right.

  • Reply to

    Looks like the 52 week low could be broken

    by tonisasuage Jun 19, 2014 3:32 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jun 19, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    "Low stock price will attract buyout offers for sure. Maybe that is what has been the plan all along!"

    Yeah... right.

    It's currently a 6.6 Billion dollar market cap. It will soon have over $1 B in cash with the remaining payments from Jansen and its cash flow from the sales of Imbruvica. It may have that already. Below $80 I'll be buying again and I already have a boat load. J&J has Duggan's phone number. They are the only likely player in a takeout. It won't be done because the price of the stock has fallen and made a lot of nervous nellies unhappy however. Duggan could care less and J&J really doesn't care. They have a good idea of what the long term prospects are and of what that's worth. If they decide to do a deal J&J will have someone perfectly willing to continue on as is to negotiate with and they know it. They will have to make a fair and an attractive offer or there will be no deal. Frankly I don't see why they'd want the other half unless they are having trouble dealing with Duggan and want to get rid of him. I doubt that's the case.

  • Reply to


    by tahoe9898 Jun 10, 2014 11:05 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jun 11, 2014 7:59 AM Flag

    "All my instincts tell me to cut him some slack. If he pulls off successful Cabo entries in prostate, renal, and hepatic cancers he'll be regarded as a genius.
    We'll see... "

    I have been arguing this exact point for going on 3 years. How we got to this juncture will soon be irrelevant. If Cabo is successful he's a hero...if not he's a bum. It's that simple...and you're right..."we'll see".

  • Reply to

    What is next for EXEL

    by exel_cabo Jun 6, 2014 9:46 AM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jun 6, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    "Another risk is dilutive financing at a low share price. Well, I would hope that this time the BoD would call it quits and force the company into selling itself. The risk of both co-BRIM and Comet-1 failing is very low, but not zero. This is biotech. "

    You make it sound like dumping the company at a low price is somehow superior from the existing shareholders point of view to raising cash at a low price. How does that math work exactly?

  • Reply to

    City of Hope breakthrough

    by wilderguide May 31, 2014 2:45 PM
    mbbf49a mbbf49a Jun 1, 2014 7:16 AM Flag

    "My condolences for your losses.i have felt the pain of similar loss.Your losses have embittered you, but you mustn't let them blind you as well."

    Me too as far as the losses far anyway. The drugs are being developed, and the drug companies exist to help patients not to make the slavering shareholders ill-gotten gains.Those potential gains are a by product of the huge effort that goes into both conquering a disease (or at least mitigating its impact on individual human beings) and circumventing an unnecessarily bureaucratic FDA which is working just as hard as any tumor known to man to kill as many patients as possible. Our job as investors is to locate potential and then test management to see if they are honest and up to snuff. Things are not always going to go our way in this riskiest of enterprises and certainly they won't always play out on our time schedule. So far I see nothing in the Cabo experience to dissuade me from keeping a sizable bet on the table which is not to say that I have ever thought my odds of "winning", whatever that might mean, were any better than 50-50. That's pretty good in a game where the house routinely stacks the odds against you.

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