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Yongye International, Inc. Message Board

mcflyjmu 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 4, 2015 4:14 PM Member since: Dec 5, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Black Rock gong to take a 10% stake

    by smithts777 Feb 4, 2015 10:02 AM
    mcflyjmu mcflyjmu Feb 4, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    You are already down 25% in one month on this stock. Why should we trust your insights?

  • "The demand for Civeo’s services are also showing signs of declining demand because the living preferences of oilfield and mining workers are changing. Employees now prefer to live in apartments in the towns being built by developers."

    This one might be a dead duck in a few years.

  • Some fool here on the message board named Blackstone went around pumping this stock all over the Yahoo message boards last week prior to the big drop arrogantly proclaiming that he had 1.2 million invested in this stock, that he "never loses" on his investments, and that CVEO is not levered to the price of oil. I wrote several posts to refute him and he attacked me as a short. Now that this has cratered, his pumping has stopped and he has gone into hiding. Funny how these types disappear when ship hits the fan right? What a maroon.

  • Reply to

    $200,000,000 In Cash On Hand

    by eddavis2011 Jan 3, 2015 2:48 PM
    mcflyjmu mcflyjmu Jan 3, 2015 7:11 PM Flag

    This company is worthless with oil at present prices, and even if oil goes up 10%. And there is no value in mancamps in the middle of nowhere so throw out the "book value".

  • Reply to

    This sucks

    by blackstone441 Dec 29, 2014 9:20 PM
    mcflyjmu mcflyjmu Dec 30, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    You lost more than 500K if you invested 1.2 million in the double digits. You really should be ashamed about pumping this all over the message boards the past few days. I came on here to refute your nonsense and have been vindicated.

  • Reply to

    Where are you Blackstone?

    by mcflyjmu Dec 29, 2014 4:38 PM
    mcflyjmu mcflyjmu Dec 29, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    There you go, dividend cut. Blackstone, I hope you have learned your lesson.

  • Goodness gracious looks like you have lost your pants.. You have been pumping since the double digits, and claim to have a 1.2 million dollar position where you "never lose money". I tried reasoning with you, even posted statements from the last 10k that you claimed I made up, and the only argument you had to refute me was that I "was a short". I sure hope that you learned your lesson here and nobody was sucked in by your pumping all over the message board. And as I predict the next thing to happen is the dividend will be cut.

  • mcflyjmu mcflyjmu Dec 27, 2014 8:32 AM Flag

    Blackstone - did you read the full 10q on 11/06? I ask that because you accused me of making stuff up when I pasted some snippets to refute your statement on oil. I know what Civeo has done the past year - it was very impressive as there has been a real shortage of housing in this oil boom, and you can see that evidence of that in the way rents have skyrocketed in North Dakota, etc. But I don't care too much about that, because I believe future projections will drive the stock price. And when I read the quarterly report, I see declining revenues and EPS, right now a projection of around .32 EPS versus over a dollar last year. That to me signals they will have to cut the dividend, so I wouldn't expect you can just sit back and collect the dividend as you proclaim.

    All of their facilities are located in oil sands/mining areas, many of which are now starting to idle their mines. That worries me as oil/metals may stay low for an extended period of time. However that being said, I will say that CVEO does have a couple of interesting things going for it, namely a strong balance sheet and an activist investor. And at some point this will be a good buy as most things are that get beaten down.

  • Reply to

    CVEO - yes oil price affects occupancy

    by mcflyjmu Dec 26, 2014 7:12 PM
    mcflyjmu mcflyjmu Dec 27, 2014 8:22 AM Flag

    Blackstone - what do you mean none of that is in the quarterly report, do you think I just made that up? I pulled it directly off the last 10q filing on the website, it's on page 25 of the 10q dated 11/6/14!

    Don't get mad at me for pointing it out - I'm not short at this level, but not long either... I am reading your posts, and questioning your logic that you have, specifically that CVEO is not affected by oil price, and secondly the assumption that you can just sit back and collect a .52 cent dividend for years to come. If you disagree, please explain, I'd be interested to hear your viewpoint.

  • Jeez I don't know how much clearer it can be that oil price DIRECTLY affects CVEO. The other thing I will add is the dividend of .52 per year may not be safe moving forward. I believe they are projected to earn .32 EPS next year vice over $1 a share this year... thus they would have to cut the dividend by 2/3 in order to afford it and be at the same payout ratio. If you came to a different analysis, please share, otherwise don't just assume you can sit back and collect the dividend for the next 3 years.

    Just one of many snippets from the quarterly report:
    "With lingering concerns about take-away capacity out of the oil sands region, lower oil prices and continued high costs including labor costs, the current outlook for oil sands activity has deteriorated for the fourth quarter of 2014 and the full year 2015. Project delays and cancellations continued with recent cancellations by Total, StatOil, Husky and the Korean National Oil Company. Although we are currently the primary third-party accommodations provider for the two major construction projects in the oil sands region, Suncor’s Fort Hills project and Imperial Oil’s Kearl Project, outlook for additional major oil sands construction projects is limited. Oil sands operators are looking to reduce their costs and focus their spending on sustaining capital projects, limiting the demand for accommodations like we provide. As a result, we are expecting materially lower revenues and earnings from our Canadian operations in the fourth quarter of 2014 and the full year 2015. Additionally, if oil prices remain at current levels, or continue to decline, throughout the fourth quarter 2014, the resulting impact could negatively affect the value of our long-lived assets, including goodwill. "

  • Repsol will not offer what TLM is looking for given the tank in price of and TLM board will reject the offer. I've seen this story too many times.

  • If the deal goes through, will probably be on the low end due to the plunge in oil. Waiting many months to receive 5.16 a share doesn't sound like a good investment to me. Of course there is a chance the buyout may be a little higher or buyout could fail, which would plunge the price down to the 3s.

  • Reply to

    Low end of deal already priced in

    by mcflyjmu Dec 15, 2014 9:43 AM
    mcflyjmu mcflyjmu Dec 15, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    I'm not short right now you pinhead. That said, I wouldn't be buying at these levels either.

  • 6 Canadian dollars equals 5.16 per share. Could be a little higher but not much with the drop of oil. What if deal falls through?

  • mcflyjmu mcflyjmu Dec 12, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    Ok fair enough. The price discussed was 6-8 a share. Now that oil has collapsed, why would they pay that price? You get my point.

  • You really think Repsol will offer the same price now that oil is 40% cheaper?

  • Most of the research I've done indicates there will be 60 dollar oil for the next 5 years. Question is can SD survive with such a low price? Any thoughts?

YONG
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