found the info on Glufosfamide... it is on phase 3 on pancreatic cancer as well.
A Randomized Phase 3 Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Glufosfamide Compared With Fluorouracil (5#$%$) in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Previously Treated With Gemcitabine
Completion date: December 2016.. i guess its too far away still.
Hi hi, yea message betwen laura is all public information. I just just trying to get some points across and receive additinal info. I think she gave me EORTC presentation files, which was a bit more slides than the ones you can get from the website. They are aware of the picasso trial. She gave me list of possible endpoints STS can achieve and be successful etc.
Also EORTC and our P2 trial of STS has rather difference in subtypes enrolled and i was trying to see if that would make a difference in our P3 trials etc.
I hacve high hopes for the PC trial and that is why im betting large in this stock. STS i expect to fail so anything good is just that.. a bonus.
TH302 works.. its just how well is the problem. Evne if bodth were to fail, i think combo regiment can be achieved eventually.
Also to note, our old failed P3 study .. 4got the name was sold of to another company and that p3 trial is due sometimes this year... we still get royalty from that if it succeeds .. i have to dig my notes on that too when i get home.
GL. .... oh the fun times are going to start soon.
Agreed with expanded patient enrollement was due to EORTC trial. Picasso came out afterwards. No one even knew about picasso since they publised the OS way after ZIOP dropped the trial. I was digging around and found that info first and brought to this board.
I compared in detail difference betwn EORTC vs TH302 vs Picasso trial and bottom line was that although baseline should be similair, we just don't know the exact difference since they only posted. Im at work and havne't checked but if my memory serves correctly, PICASSO and our STS trial is very very similar in baseline except PICASSO allowed medium grade tumor... i have to check my notes at home.
bottom line is that extended trials are almost always bad for the trial like Phase III trials almost always is worse than P2.. etc. I excpect STS to fail and PC to make it. I still expect this to be over $30 whne approved by FDA for PC.
Can't wait for STS and PC trials.. fun times ahead indeed.
Awesome work.. musta taken you long time.
Couple of comments.
I found about the Picasso trial os of 17.9 months the day it was published.. or was it 17.. and thats when i realized that STS will probably not work imho. I give it rougly 30 percent chance.. STS has too many subtypes etc... plus it is taking way too long. most trials that get extended almost always fails.. lets hope this isn't the case here.
also to note: phase II results from PC was great.. but my biggest concern is that if you breatk down the cohorts of the trial, you'll find out that although it was random assignment, the control group was the sickest of the three, followed by 340, then the 240. so that probably skewed the results.. and yet im still very confident about the result. im expecting 2.2 months ish.. phase III showed 2.3.. but CEO says it can be as high as 2.9 months if you take account of crossover.
bottom line, great work on your part, and i DDed this very very carefully and emailed back and forth with Laura lady at THLD... and the result im expecting is STS will fail, and PC will make it with 2.2 months, which is GREAT!
also, STS just has too many different subtypes and almost impossible to get SS results imo. I thinking standard of care has gone up dramatically from the historically 10 to 12 months. Im betting control is closer to 17 months.
agree.. sts is taking too long.. i give it less than 50% chance. Im thining 30% chance in STS. PC in another hand i give 70% chance of success.. maybe around 2.2 months to 2.3 months.
TH-302 works... just not that well to blow anyone's mind.. but just enough to be used by many people in PC.. note.. needs to beat abraxane's 2.1 month advantage.
all that said, i still expect this to be $8 to $10 BEFORE data release.. I will sell at least half on the runup since i think STS chances are less than 50%.
im looking at $30 next year and $50 if Lung is successful in two years.
Im expecting high single digits by end of the year. People will not leave this alone as there will be two data release beiginning of 2016. $10 means what.. 800m market cap? thats cheap with two pending phase III trials. Hold and reap the reward in 8 months or so.
huh? didn't you sell out? im in it for the long haul so no bother what so ever. If this gets approved, it will be much much higher than here. i hope it dips back to 2s again so i can buy even more.
first of all this is a very boring stock.. just get used to it. anything can happen... but i suspect that 1st Q results will be a loss due to month of march non shipment. that might just bring the shares down to $3 imo.. where it is a good place to load up.
but 2nd q numbers and beyond should be nice and bring this back to 10 by next year assuming further business upside from here.
i just plan to add when it hits $3.... i bought this thinking it can goto $10 next year. LED is going to happen here and its very cheap compared to CREE.
I think the Yan family is going through their Noob status as a public company. they will come out of it stronger. About those millions in costs due to lawsuits.. they will be just 1 time expenses and it will move on from it much stronger. give it couple of more earnings and this will be back where it started and more, of course pending growth of their business.
LED will lead the future and im betting TCPI will be there w/ or w/o me as a stockholder.
Looking for $5 in couple of months.
agreed, i won't go back to 6s for until this thing suit is done with or couple more good Q numbers. i expect back to 4s after 2014 numbers are released.
however, in a year, i can see this going above 10 if number match analysts numbers.