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HSBC Holdings plc Message Board

mcmem 35 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Jan 15, 1998
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  • During APEC, China shut down most air-polluting factories. Now that APEC is over, the smog quickly returns, and visibility at Beijing is down to 100m. That is right, every aircraft there is stealth.

  • For those who do not know, ROC will have an election shortly. ROC GDP is much lower than Korea now. What do you think will happen if the rabbits win?

  • Just the announcement of new FM sent VALE up 8%. Talking about humiliation.

  • Reply to

    Will China fight ISIL?

    by mcmem Sep 11, 2014 5:37 PM
    mcmem mcmem Nov 20, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    The western side of China, including XinJiang and Tibet, has a lot of minority that demand independency. It is to China's benefit to suppress ISIL. The key question is why China should get involved instead of letting USA be the bad guy.

  • There is a discussion that RIO is a better choice than VALE. Both stocks are hit hard as the USD strengthens with no end in sight. RIO is near 52 week low. VALE is 10 years low. Therefore the reason for investment is the amount of gain. We can expect RIO reasonably go from $47 to $60 or 20% gain. VALE can easily go back to $20 and therefore a good entry point is $7. If I cannot double or triple my investment, why should I bother taking this risk now?

    I thought that $10 is a strong support. I thought that $9 is a strong support. How wrong was I. I feel sorry for all the long in this slow torture to death.

  • I just spent a month in China touring Canton and Western China. There are construction everywhere and business is booming. Even at small city like Guiyang, there are lots of new buildings and toll highways (no freeway there). China still consumes a lot of steel. The workers are not making much, but jobs are easy to find. There are wanted ads every where.

  • There are talks on whether to sell VALE now, and there are sentiments like "at this juncture many of us are so far under water on VALE that it makes little sense to sell here."

    A better way to make the decision is whether you would buy more VALE at current price. If you will not sink more $, then you should sell. All commodity stocks are sinking because of the strong dollar. Do you think the tide will change soon?

  • Reply to

    Another question

    by mcmem Sep 24, 2014 6:32 PM
    mcmem mcmem Oct 1, 2014 1:02 AM Flag

    China has an one-child policy. We may want to show our firing power to the parents of the soldiers.


    Other Chinese stocks such as CEO are doing just as bad. What worries me is that the recent drop may be from institutions.

  • Has anyone checked the HK economy lately? Do you know how much are the small apartment there?


    I doubt very much that it will drop below $10. At the same time I like to ask those who are counting on China economy a simple question: What have you been smoking?

  • In a reply to one of my posts, somebody stated "China is going to continue to build out. It has lots of people and they need homes and infrastructure. China isn't about profits, it is about breaking even. They substitute growth for margins." Please allow me to explain the effects of USA economy on China.

    BOBO printed $7T, that is $20K per person. If you have a spouse and 2 kids, he forced you to spend $80K. Do you have extra $80K in your pocket? USA economy should have increased $140K per person, or $560K per family if we apply a 7X multiplier. The 7X factor comes because when you spend $1 extra on grocery, the grocery employees will spend some on gas, and XOM is going to spend some on exploration etc and the GDP goes up by 7X$1. Clearly the average USA family does not receive extra $80K networth or $560K revenue. What happened?

    On the day BofA received bailout, it spent $8B to buy a Chinese bank. We sent most of the $7T to China, resulting in an incredible inflation there. Small apartments in Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Canton, Taipei all priced at $5M each. The cheapest apartment at HK is $500K for a 150 sf hole, smaller than my closet. Seniors there not owning a home cannot survive. China has such a good headache that she has to crash her economy to control the inflation.

    Until the inflation is under control, there is no construction, no steel, no cement. This is why the US$ is going back to USA. Now, do you think that you can convince BOBO to stop printing funny money?

  • Reply to

    China Steel may be folding

    by mcmem Sep 25, 2014 2:11 PM
    mcmem mcmem Sep 25, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Can you read Chinese?

  • Reply to

    China Steel may be folding

    by mcmem Sep 25, 2014 2:11 PM
    mcmem mcmem Sep 25, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    Actually it is worse than that. China Steel hadn't default because several loans were waived.

    Wish I can do that. I cannot afford my mortgage, and bank forgives the money. Magically I am solvent now.

  • Reply to

    China Steel may be folding

    by mcmem Sep 25, 2014 2:11 PM
    mcmem mcmem Sep 25, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    Yes, it is state owned. There is a possibility that the CEO received $ and wanted to run the company to the ground so that another Chinese steel company can buy it cheap.

  • China Steel is in major trouble and cannot pay interest of its loans. China is ordering banks to bail out the company.

  • BOBO is "inviting" China to attack IS, fighting with US soldiers side by side. What would happen to the USA defense contractors if the US soldiers find certain Chinese technology to be more advanced?

    Not a chance? Chinese missile defense has successful intercepted hypersonic missiles. Turkey wants to buy Chinese missile defense system because they are better and cheaper.

  • BOBO is "inviting" China to attack IS, fighting with US soldiers side by side. What should a US soldier do if s/he found the Chinese soldiers using copy of US technology?

  • Reply to

    $12 level is critical

    by mcmem Sep 21, 2014 1:02 AM
    mcmem mcmem Sep 23, 2014 3:47 AM Flag

    According to my formulation, the situation quickly fell apart in the last 2 sessions. According to the 5 years plot, $11 is optimistic.

  • According to Economist, Putin is putting together the former USSR countries, in particular central Asia, against USA.

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