I was curious if you were buying at this level. I jumped in a little too soon at $2.76. I'm tempted to buy more, but as you say, it could go lower.
The National Retail Federation recently published an interesting article on a survey of consumer's top 50 favorite online shopping sites. Amazon was #1 of course, but there were 2 interesting tidbits for followers of Groupon. For the first time Groupon made the list at #46, better than Sam's Club and TJMaxx. The other interesting take away from the article was a survey of what triggered online searches. Number 1 was face to face communication or essentially "word of mouth". Number 2 was coupons. Now I know this includes coupons from the retailers themselves, but this also points to the power that Groupon has to promote it's unique marketing advantage.
Yes...maybe. Groupon is moving in the right direction, however until they consistently post quarterly profits, they will be stuck in the $6 - $8 range (with the occasional dip below $6). However, if they can become profitable (even just a few cents a share) then I think people will start to look at their market dominance and long term potential. If this happens, it will go back over $10.
I'm still long Groupon, but this latest downturn has me rethinking my strategy. I sold just before earnings last quarter, banked some profit and jumped back in at a lower average share price. I was not planning to do that this time, and when we hit $7.20, I thought we were actually headed much higher. Now however with a little over 30 days left, I'm thinking that if we make another nice run over $7 (and I'm pretty sure we will, particularly given all the short shares) I'll probably bank some profit again and try to jump back in after earnings. Of course, I could be wrong...
As of the last short report, there were still over 86 million shares short. I guess people can continue to short this stock, but eventually those shares have to be repurchased. As usual with Groupon any bit of good news should send it back up. However, in the near future it might be ugly. As always we'll see....
Joel Greenblatt says that Groupon's business is shrinking and that's just not true. Gross billings and revenue were both up in the 2nd quarter. Active deals and active customers were also both up. Everyone knows that mobile is the future and Groupon has increased it's share of mobile transactions up to 50%.
Having said all this, Groupon still needs to get expenses down and show a profit. Until it does, it will be subject to shorters and swings of the market. So, bottom line, I'm still long.
I think we can get back to $7.00 without a huge event, as I don't really understand the drop in share price on consistently good news. I do agree that we will not see the next move up (over $7.25) until we get positive earnings, good news, upgrades, etc. That 's a little disappointing as I was hoping that we would be at $8 by the ER. It could still happen, but I think it is less likely now.
Why are Syrian air strikes on the Groupon news page? "Hey we need some bad news about Groupon! What there is no bad news? Okay, let's put the Syrian air strikes on their page."
I saw that too. Really interesting. An 8 Mil trading day turns into 19 Mil. at the very end. If you want to see the trades, go to GRPN on the Nasdaq site. It will show you some statistics for the trading day. About 3/4's of the way down is a button that says "see all trades". Click that button and then select the range "last 100 trades". You'll see a trade for almost 450,000 shares, 5 trades for 903,000+ shares each and one big trade for 5,310,000 shares. Somethings up indeed!
Wow, I know it's the first day, but this is just crazy!
From the latest Market Watch article on Alibaba:
"Alibaba makes group buying work...Group buying aggregates demand for merchants, who in exchange give discounts to people willing to join the group. The closest U.S. parallel to this now is Groupon GRPN."
Hmm... looks like a perfect fit to me!
Every stock I've recently owned has had buyout rumors, yet so far no takers. However, Groupon is so perfect for Alibaba's future goals, it really seems like a no brainer. We'll see...
While that was the theme last quarter, I think things are different now. The last big down day was still around $6.70. We'll see, but from here on out, I bet we spend more time above $7 than below. The other consideration is that while you wait on the sidelines for a lower stock price, you may miss out on any takeover rumors.
For the next big move up, we need some analysts to recognize the latest positive news and price movement. Everyone of course except "The Street". Those guys are the kiss of death.
That's pretty typical for "The Steet". The best part of the article is the comment by Groupon's CEO. "With nearly 92 million app downloads worldwide and more than half of our transactions occurring on mobile devices, Groupon is one of the largest mobile commerce companies in the world." If people ever start looking at Groupon as a mobile commerce company instead of simply an online coupon company, watch the share price take off.
Hey Barry! I give you points for posting on a day when we're up almost 6%. That's true comedy!
I think every time Groupon gets over $7, red lights flash at all the hedge funds and they short it back down to $6.70. Today's momentum started slow and then picked up steam, most likely on short covering. We'll see if this holds. I'd really like to stay about $7 for a bit.