I'm in the same boat. Unfortunately it's going to take some time and luck to unwind this downturn.
The good news is that the fundamentals that made this an $8+ stock are still there. In fact with Groupon to Go you could argue that we're in better shape. The bad news is that this is a momentum market. Look at FIT and SHAK. They don't have the fundamentals for their valuations, but they are the latest hot stocks.
I think if we have a good 2Q ER than the stock gets backup to $5.50, maybe higher if the shorts panic. From there we could slowly build until the next ER. I think we'll be back to $6.50 before the end of the year.
The luck part of all this is if the US stock market hangs in there with all the crazy stuff happening in the world. We have to hope that there's not some major sell off in the next 6 months.
For all the shots taken at GRPN, at least they have a platform that can generate revenue. Yelp, Twitter even Yahoo have all struggled to find ways to monetize their platform. I don't know if I trust management to accept an offer, but I agree that GRPN would be a good take over candidate.
I expect you to continue posting to this board over the entire 3 day weekend!
I shall be laying in the sun and swimming in my pool.
See you Monday!
At the beginning of this slide, I thought this was simply the GRPN goes up - GRPN goes down meme we've seen before. I was perfectly happy to wait for the next ride up. Then when we blew through the 52 week low, I thought that maybe the shorts had jumped on this stock and were driving the share price down. As we blew through $5 and down to levels not seen in several years (when GRPN had much lower revenues and much less cash on hand) I felt like something else has been going on.
Yesterday renegade5063 came up with what seems like the most reasonable explanation.The MMs need to have enough shares to cover the massive amount of short shares as well as cover the recently announced $500M buyback. So for the past 2 months on relatively low volume they have been walking the price down.
Yesterday when we dropped under $5 I was watching the trades on Nasdaq and their were many 100, 200 and 400 share trades. Not exactly what you would expect for such a big drop.
So what should you do? I expect that the share price may still drop from here. The drop under $5 is significant as many individual owners may have experienced margin calls and many funds may sell as well. I sold 1/2 my position yesterday at a loss. If we eventually get the ride back up to $7 or $8 I'll break even. If we slide further, I've at least cut my losses.
Your theory is interesting. I was watching the trades while this went down under $5. There were a couple of big trades (one for 50K shares and I think one for 30K shares), but most of the trades were for well under 1,000 shares. Many 100 and 200 share trades. I was wondering why we were dropping so much on such small trades while the other day after hours a 900K share trade didn't drop the price at all.
I averaged down a couple of times on the way down too. That's how I ended up with all these shares of GRPN. Usually that has been a good strategy for me. This time I just had more shares that were going down in value each day. Oh well, here's hoping it works out for all the longs.
At a market cap of 3.3B, GRPN is now trading at a Price/Sales ratio of about 1! Compare that to new Wall Street darling FIT which trades at a Price/Sales ratio of over 8.
You would think this means we've finally reached the bottom, but is anyone brave enough to call it?
If I remember you sold 1/2 at around $5.50 and I told you to hang on. I probably should have sold half then too!
I actually agree with you on this. I've had stocks that I thought were great and unfortunately they didn't do anything. My frustration is that for the past couple of months, the only way you would have made money on this stock is by shorting it. There's been no down a bit, back up a bit, or even a clear drop in price which would have signaled "time to cut your losses". Instead it's been a slow, steady drip down.
Anyway as you say, another hard lesson learned.
Stocks go up and stocks go down, I have no problem with that. However, this 2 month slide of down every day (on no news) feels like someone is picking my pocket.
It's not the only time in this slide that GRPN has done this. I need to quit posting or I'll start to sound like some of the idiot shorts on this board, but I'm seriously pi$$ed!
I agree. It's either going to be really good news "We have an offer for the company" or really bad news "You know that $1B that used to be on the books..." I hedged my bets by selling 1/2 my holdings today. I hate it when the shorts win.
I'm sorry to hear that. The problem for the rest of us longs is that you're most likely not alone. Dropping under $5 makes it that much harder to turn this around.
That's what I can't figure out with this stock. I've had stocks drop on bad news. I've had stocks "walked down" just before big news, and I've had stocks drop because the shorts controlled them. I've never had a stock like this that just drops every single day on basically no news.
This stock has been a shorts dream and I can't believe it hasn't turned around yet.
"Groupon to Go" is actually a new program, but thanks for your concern.
Speaking of old news you keep referring to an article from 2011. Wouldn't that be considered "old news"?
In the comments section on seeking alpha there is a poster who has a restaurant in Chicago. He says that he is the top Grub Hub restaurant in a 5 mile radius and also a GRPN share holder. Lots of good info that you can check out for yourself, but the one thing that caught my eye was that he has tested the new GRPN software in his restaurant and found it to be very close to what Grub Hub now has (after 4 years of updates).
He says that the rollout is going slowly, but that there should be a link from the main page in early July. They have been swamped with restaurants wanting to be part of the Groupon to Go program and need to catch up before they really start promoting it.
I've said several times that this could be a game changer. It will take time to grow this business, but I think it will eventually be a great revenue generator for GRPN.