My targets are low $60s by year end 2013 (~ $62 to $64), $75 to $80 by 3/31 and $100 to $120 by 12/31/14. Obviously a lot could happen good or bad at any movement. For now, I think odds of good news is a lot greater than the odds of bad news (if so, numbers will move up).
Peter Lynch commented once that investors should avoid "picking a top" it can't be done and you miss out on the big money. My experience is once stocks really start run, they run higher and faster than people think.
If you expect this stock to top out at $150 like many now expect, running up another $20 to $30 near team does not seam crazy (would a $150 stock look like a bargain to most people at $80? of course).
Not saying it will run up next week and could pull back at any moment,, but I've owned stocks like this before and watched people bail out after a $10 run, only to left in the dust when the big money is made.
Agree with you Synfuelguy. Trying to time things is too hard (easy to miss the boat just like the last run). Per the company, they should have 6 more RC plants up, running and sold by March 31. With only 8 running and sold now, that's a 75% increase (a huge jump).
Understand, that existing shareholders have a "show me" mentality that's developed over the years. What usually happens is new investors show up once a company gets going buy based on forward expectations (in our case is over $10/share/year of earnings. Put a 15 multiple on $10/share and the stock is still a 3X in 12 months.
This said, never any harm in taking some profits and enjoying life (would not count on getting back in once you sell).
Perfect storm = MATS that people can understand + surge in RC earnings that no one really gets but will make the analyst projections blast of the chart.. Together, she'll going to blast off (we've just started). Won't go straight up, but should be an exciting 12 to 18 months.
Learned a long time ago not to try to time run ups or to "get out" in the hopes of a pull back. Train leaves the station when you least expect so getting off is a bad idea (JMHO).
Go back and look at the chart the last time they did an offering in Oct 2011. Traded flat for 2 weeks during underwriters quiet period (10 days post close), they took off like a rocket (up almost 50% in short time period after quiet period ended). History repeats itself more often than not.
$63 is Consistent with my long time guess that we'll exit the year in the low $60s. Guess is was based on management's ongoing comments and public reports (thus not totally random). Have thought for a long time that once regular buyers started to notice the stock, it would take off. Still think most of current holders are long term and tainted by underperformance in the past (expect many to exit soon as the share price raises - leaving the big money on the table).
What I'm hoping is the move back into the $50s once the quire period ends for the underwriters of the recent offering. Last time they did an offering, it traded flat just like its doing now for about 2 weeks and then took off once the quiet period ended. COO filed an S-4 saying she sold some shares yesterday. While not a lot of insider selling given the run up, it does not take much to move the share price. Not sure what the insider is and when it ends, but assume its only open for limited time.
60 has been my year end target for a long time. Possible, but will need some news. My rule has been each RC plant in service and sold =$5/share in FMR (very rough). Thus seem in the realm of reason.
A couple of employees have been selling and filed form 4s the last few days. Nothing material but sales likely made up of 10 to 15% of volume for the last two days. Does not take much to impact share price so think even the light sales impacted this illiquid stock. Thus even the sale of few shares by these employees likely contributed to the downward pressure (not a lot, but some).
Not a big deal and understand the need to sell for personal reasons. Assume there is a window where the employees can sell so expect we'll see more over the next week or two (assume we'll some more given the rapid raise in share price).
If you look at the chart from the last time they did an offering, the stock traded flat for a couple of weeks and then took off like a rocket. Seems to following the trading flat part this time too.
Interesting - just assumed it had already closed. Knew about the quiet period rule from another stock I owned, so looked the rule to be sure.
Underwriters can't issue reports, or give buy/sell recommendations for 10 days after a secondary stock offering. Assume the 10 day QP may partially explain why the stock took off about 3 weeks after the company's last stock offering in 2011.
Will history repeat itself?
Normal metrics point to a share price of $100 to $200 over the next 14 months. Not a given, but seem pretty likely. Short term? No idea. Assume will move higher in the near term, but short term moves are impossible to predict.
Success of recent stock offering shows appetite for the stock. Underwriters are in it to make money and will likely put our research reports which will move us higher. Last time the company did an offering was in Oct 2011 - Underwriters of the 2011 offering made almost 50% in 2 months. Assume a similar return this time is plausible.