I suppose he might have gotten let go? Don't think so, but it would explain not getting a rely. Next logical step is to send emails questions to Heath saying IR does not reply. My experience it fixes a non reply problem pretty fast (sending notes to CEO or Chairman.
Did not see a press release yesterday or SEC filing yesterday, so not sure what your seeing? Maybe one of your penny stock short seller stock alerts?
First bought into ADA at a split adjusted $2.50 and later sold years later at $16.5 when I got tired of management shenanigans. Stock could have gone to $50, but management incompetence trashed the idea.
Company's RC business has a value of $10 to $20/share, but think the rest of company has very little value ($1 or $2/share?). Its a 12 months buy with a 2X or 3X target. Not for the faint of heart, but a buy below $5 with a 12 month target of $15. JMHO
Could see the stock drop to $2 or $3 in minute or jump to $10. Its a wild Vegas bet at the moment. Key is to get the fincials out without another "you've got to be kidding" surprise (which they've done before).
I'm calculating value to shareholders (not a share price applying a PE). The program escalates with inflation so the "math" does not account for inflation but always does not discount the cash flows. Agree the pile of tax benefits ADA has will result in years of no taxes. High level math
Still expecting "ugly" financials when they come out. Assume stock could run up in relief or sell off due to stuff in the financials.
In particular, I expect they will show nothing made money except RC. We'll need to settle the class action suits (assume nothing will be done on this until the financials are released).
Will be interesting if the projection for huge profits from RC sticks. Prior rough math given by company follows:
Tons/year target - 100 million
Pre-tax profit/ton - $3 (approximate)
Ownership CCS - 42.5%
Years left on program 5 (10 years from Dec 2011)
Given program escalates with inflation. Rough Value of ADA's investment
100 million tones X $3 profit X 42.5% ownership X 5 years = $637.5 million (net to ADA over 5 years).
22 million shares out.
Unless things have changed, would point to a $15 to $20 share price.
Don't think I'd buy the calls at 20% of share price (assume they cost 20 cents). To much risk. This said, the calls would provide a lot of upside if the shares run to $2 or $3. My bet is we exit 2016 at $3, but that's just my WAG (hope).
Key will be Friday's OPEC meeting. Market expects Saudis to keep pumping at 11 MB/D. Any kind of cut would be huge (like market, I don't expect a cut)
Nice to be going north again