I think the company still has a lot of upside. This said, management issues cost shareholders a full year of nothing. Too bad they didn't fire the whole bunch clowns and started clean a year ago.
Good post Cold Play - I agree with you. This said, the headlines are bad for the stock (which is suffering big time from management blunders).
Seems over done, but increases the odds of a reverse split. Company's liquidity position seems to be fine. Think we'll get a spike when they sell the PRB properties. Would like to see some bonds re-purchased.
Should get a good idea on what people are paying soon with PRB reserves for sale. I believe the PDPs for PRB is ~ 6 million BBLs. Thus my guess is they get about $50 to $75 million.
With the debt/bonds trading at a huge discount, would like to see a big block of debt bought in (assume for combination of cash + new debt). would like to see the debt ration reduced.
I think we'll get audited financials early next year. Thus in part why I sold my shares a few months ago. I got tired of waiting. I still like the company, but think the time to buy will be in the fall. This said, would not bother me at all if the shares zoomed to the moon tomorrow and people that held and did not sell make lots of money.
Hope EIA reports a bigger draw in the morning. I think we've likely crossed the bridge and we're going to see big drops in US crude production soon as flush shale production rates fall off the chart.
Don't see $200 oil Zanzibar in the next few years, but do think we'll see $75 early soon (early next year?). Agree that the lack of investment in places like Russia and Venezuela will impact prices. At $75 oil, REN is worth $3 to $4/share.
To some extent I agree with you. I view REN as a 2 year investment. This said, I think the pending PRB sale will cause a short term rally about to $1.50 Just a WAG.
Still would like to see them do something creative with the debt (Like buy in bonds at a discount to lower leverage ratios)
My target is to buy a few shares if she goes below $10. I think the RC business has a value of $20 to $30/share. . The rest of the company not so much due to management problems which scared away business.
PRB properties have 6 MM of Proved reserve (BOE) with 50% Natural Gas. In general, people pay $15 to $20/BBL for oil and 75 cent to $1 MMBTU for gas (in the ground). Thus I think they'll get
1) Liquids 3 million X $15 = $45 million
2) Gas 5.8MMBTU X 3 X 75 cents = $13 million
For a total of $50 to $75 million.
agree - Hedges are saving the day. Stock is priced as if its going out of business. Not going to happen with the hedges. I think they'll get $50 million for PRB properties. Assuming so, they will have plenty of cash to weather the storm.
I expect we'll move up on earnings next week. Hedges should really help earnings/cash flow. This said, fighting the global sell off of oil and energy at the moment.
The US is still producing about 9 million BBLs a day, but expect we're about to see a big drop. Flush production on shale wells lasts about 6 months and we're about 6 months from the date the rig count dropped. We need a fall off of global production for oil prices and REN to recover. Going to happen, but will take a year or so. I still really like REN. Not a day trade, but a bargain at the moment.
I assume the old numbers they gave us still hold. RC Plants they operate for their own account consume/take to run at $3/ton of cash. While the operated plants generate tax benefits that might be used "some day" , tax items today are of no use to ADA due to its has a huge supply of tax loss and credit carryforwards.
Plants sold or leased generate $3/ton of pre-tax profits. ADA owns 42.5% of the refined coal JV, so take both numbers from press release times 42.5% to calculate net cash flowing from RC projects (easy to calculate)
This said, per the press release, the company is burning cash. Thus assume all RC cash is being used to shut down or feed money losing business segments, to feed the accounting fiasco or to pay golden parrchusets to existing management.
Not a surprise the stock continues to go lower. No idea where she'll bottom.