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Abraxas Petroleum Corp. Message Board

md841 144 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Mar 27, 1999
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  • Sometimes the seeking alpha articles have moved/spiked the share price - Not much movement today

  • Just looked at the two year chart. Last years chart looks a lot like this years chart. Run up followed by flat period until mid January when she took off like a rocket for the rest of the year. If 2014's pattern is the same as last years, we're do for lift off.

    My WAGS for stock price are $70 by July 31st and $100 by year end. Just need some news.

  • md841 md841 Jan 23, 2014 8:32 AM Flag

    I think the move will be up and agree it will be tied to news. The company needs to continue its efforts to improve liquidity of the stock. It remains illiquid. What can be done? Continue effort to add more analyst coverage so we have a broader base of holders + Split the stock (2 for 1 or 2/3?).

  • Reply to

    Two year Chart

    by md841 Jan 22, 2014 9:26 PM
    md841 md841 Jan 23, 2014 8:41 PM Flag

    It does appear to be a multiyear trend.

  • Reply to

    Sold some calls today

    by halevay Nov 29, 2013 10:23 AM
    md841 md841 Jan 24, 2014 6:33 PM Flag

    Compared to the market, ADA is an easy company to understand. While it might sell off a bit if the market continues to tank (like it did today), ADA's profits are really not related to the market as a whole. LT, we'll be valued based on profits (which the company says are about to blast to the moon).

  • Reply to

    Stock Split

    by gorakrishna Jan 26, 2014 6:19 PM
    md841 md841 Jan 27, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    Per the company's web site, it has a board meeting Feb 12-13. Assume this would be a logical time for the board to approve and announce a split. Continue to think a 1 for 2 or 3 for 2 split makes sense. Would be nice to tie the split with news saying they've sold a couple of RC plants.

  • Reply to

    Stock Split

    by gorakrishna Jan 26, 2014 6:19 PM
    md841 md841 Jan 27, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    stock price drifting with the market. While I don't like self induced pain, would not mind a sharp sell off to add shares.

  • Reply to

    Sold some calls today

    by halevay Nov 29, 2013 10:23 AM
    md841 md841 Jan 28, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    I think your selling calls strategy is interesting and logical. Just not something I do. I expect we'll be up a lot by July, but don't how we'll do between now and then. My "WAG" on share price for the year is $60 by April, $70 in July and $100 by 12/31/14. The company is set to make a lot of money and I think we're going up a lot by year end. Just can't say when.

    I think they do their best give the market forecasts, but they are just that. Forecasts. Once they've got the bulk or the plants sold, they should be able to show the tax credits for GAAP. This is when the shares will explode up IMHO.

    Was looking at the rules on boiler MACT. My read is there will be about 2000 boilers that will need mercury control in 2016 to 2017. Seems to me this is another "what's next" for the company. Any thoughts? I don't' claim to fully understand the rules big industrial boilers that came out early last year.

  • Reply to

    Sold some calls today

    by halevay Nov 29, 2013 10:23 AM
    md841 md841 Jan 28, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    I think the "stealth" ticket to $100 + is the deal with Arch. If the company can start treating train loads of coal coming out of the PRB for mercury at 50 cents to $1/ton, I'm not going to guess on a share price (a lot more than $100). For now, this is not in my forecasts, but would be huge if it happens.

  • Reply to

    new Hires

    by synfuelguy Jan 28, 2014 8:05 PM
    md841 md841 Jan 28, 2014 8:32 PM Flag

    I saw it too and agree (should help). I think some people think or thought GS was running the show on refined coal. While GS owns 15% of the refined coal business and invested in 5 or 6 plants, I don't think they are active. Nice to see they've added high quality management.

  • Reply to

    new Hires

    by synfuelguy Jan 28, 2014 8:05 PM
    md841 md841 Jan 29, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Did find the press release odd in that it spoke of the power plants MWs vs tons of coal treated. Working backward, the press release implies they'll be treating 82 million tons annually in the near term? Not sure if this means when all plants are in service or if it really means near term? If its near term, that's a big jump (2.5 times current run rate). Prior target was 100 million tons when all 28 plants are running. I assume it really does mean near term and does not mean when 100% of their plants are running.

  • Only a matter of time until AXAS feels the impact. AXAS has been held down/pushed down by the market. Due for a NG related spike.

  • Reply to

    Increased my long options positions

    by gorakrishna Jan 30, 2014 3:12 PM
    md841 md841 Jan 30, 2014 11:00 PM Flag

    Assume we're sagging due to lack of news (not new). Hopefully we'll get an update soon. January analyst report projected they'd have #13 RC plant running this month.

  • md841 md841 Feb 2, 2014 11:16 PM Flag

    Thanks - Did not see it.

  • md841 md841 Feb 3, 2014 8:37 AM Flag

    Company is at the right place, right time with a lot of good products. I think we'll be hitting on all cylinders by mid summer. Still think we'll exit the year at ~ $100.

  • Reply to

    Analysts' Price Targets

    by halevay Feb 3, 2014 10:46 PM
    md841 md841 Feb 4, 2014 7:12 AM Flag

    We'll get plants sales. Today, next week, next month? Don't know, but they'll happen + ACI/DCI sales should continue upward trend. . Not sure if new SOx additive will add to sales or not (does not matter at this point). Not planning to do anything until July or later.

  • Reply to

    Analysts' Price Targets

    by halevay Feb 3, 2014 10:46 PM
    md841 md841 Feb 4, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    On Q4, I assume Q4 will look like Q3, but with higher gross sales (due to company owned plants). From the press releases, the company said they sold one RC plant and started up another early in the Q. For GAAP, I believe the plant sale will off set the plant they ran for their own account.

    Later in the Q (in December) the company said it started up another plant (plant #12 if I'm counting right). Thus I assume the "drag" on GAAP earning will be small and only from the plan they put in service in December (likely offset by higher ACI/DCI sales). Thus on a net basis, I think Q3 will = Q4 (within a few cents/share). This said, each plant running is a good thing (eventually sold).

  • Reply to

    BOD Meeting next week

    by gorakrishna Feb 6, 2014 2:51 PM
    md841 md841 Feb 6, 2014 9:02 PM Flag

    Assume the board could approved a stock split, but think a split is more likely this summer. I don't the company buying anything right now. I think they have all they can handle with 16 more RC plants to get running & sold + ACI/DCI equipment sales blasting off the chart. I think we'll be talking about buying things next year, but not now.

    Hopefully we'll get some news on RC plant sales soon. Continue to think each RC plant sale is worth ~ $5 increase in share price. Given the sagging share price which I think is market related, my guess is the next sale will push us back to $55 and 2 plants sold would push us toward a new all time high and $60.

  • Reply to

    Arch Coal

    by gorakrishna Feb 5, 2014 1:43 PM
    md841 md841 Feb 8, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    I assume we'll get an update next (either before BOD meeting or shortly thereafter). continue to think we're way oversold by about $10, but won't say short term where we'll trade. LT, we're headed up. ST no idea.

  • Reply to

    Arch Coal

    by gorakrishna Feb 5, 2014 1:43 PM
    md841 md841 Feb 8, 2014 5:42 PM Flag

    At some point, the company will have enough of an earnings record to book the tax credits from the company owned plants (for GAAP) vs. booking a valuation allowance. Not sure what it will take, but the GAAP earnings impact will be huge. I think a lot of people the company owned plants will always be a drag on GAAP earning (until they are sold). I believe they are wrong.

    Issue is the company needs to show an earnings track record to show they can use the credits and losses long term. With the long term agreements they are getting from RC plant sales, would seem they may soon be able to show the tax credits and losses (for GAAP). The change would likely have a big impact on share price.

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