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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

mdr0418 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 28, 2016 3:31 PM Member since: Jun 11, 2010
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  • Reply to

    SYN

    by mdr0418 Jan 28, 2016 1:49 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Jan 28, 2016 3:31 PM Flag

    Still have a position in SYN, but my level of confidence hinges on what happens in the next few months. Riley needs big pharma at an auction fighting to be our partner. If that type of enthusiasm is out there based on SYN010 2B results then we should be able to right the ship quickly. Right now I feel like passenger on the titanic without a life vest. Shooting off flares and hoping the mother ship arrives soon!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mdr0418 by mdr0418 Jan 28, 2016 1:49 PM Flag

    Valuation cut in half since the last secondary. As each day passes the risk profile increases due to a cash burn that will require a deal or another secondary by no later then May...Cash runway good through early July , but CFO will not run the fuse that low before bolstering their cash position as it would only create more sellers in anticipation of a secondary..

    It comes down to this: The company needs to strike a deal with big pharma that can fund SYN010 through phase 3..Best case would be a 50/50 partnership with some up front cash along with trial expenses either shared or all paid by the partner. SYN04 will need about 75mm to fund phase 3 and therefore ideally would like to see something like a 175mm up front payment, 50/50 split in future sales and phase 3 funding split 50/50 or ideally all costs covered by partner. Partner will want all future indications as part of the deal to make the risk/reward equation more palatable which Riley should surrender.

    The future of SYN and the future of Riley continuing as our CEO will come down to whether or not a deal is struck before the cash runs dry. All investors need to factor in Trimesta as a bust at this point and it should not be factored in to current valuation which is one of the reasons beyond the sector drop why we are falling faster then other small caps.. Investors including retail and figuring out that Trimesta is a bust and the entire bet is on whether or not we can deal syn010 and whether or not we can get through trials on both SYN010 and SYN004. If yes on both then we go into double digits, if no we go south of 1.00 PPS and this turns into sell and move stock.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • 1.) Babies are being tossed out with the bathwater as the entire sector is being hit with emphasis on small and micro caps.

    2. Trimesta is no longer front and center and retail and some wholesale players are pricing it in as a bust to the overall valuation. MRI data comes back inconclusive as an example.

    3. Cash reserves good through June so now you have to either land a partnership or dilute through an additional offering of shares and at these prices that would take a huge hit on valuation per share.

    I can see this think continuing to go lower until we have a show me moment or the entire sector catches fire.Too much talk about pipeline while the shareholder feels like they are slowing being choked out and many are suffering from battle fatigue. If CEO Riley can get IBSC 2B news out that blows the doors off big pharma expectations then he should be able to cut a nice deal and get some of it front end loaded to push the runway out to the end of 2017 or longer. If we get another secondary versus a deal then it would be time to consider exiting in my opinion.

    I am staying long and betting on Riley and our two primary pipeline plays. Good luck to the longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdr0418 by mdr0418 Dec 16, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    MDC, Knoll and Kirk do not own this equity based on the outcome of Trimesta. Retailers are all over it, but they are missing the big picture. The biggest bang longer term will be with Dr. P's results in p2B and in my opinion IBSC is the tip of the ice berg...Other indications that are being tracked are things like BMI although these are not a part of the endpoint study. Methane reduction could have far reaching benefit to obesity as well in the treatment of diabetes to name two other indications that could be put into future trials.

    Rememeber the Relapse and Remitting space is very crowded. With Trimesta the end game is cognition and we do not have that MRI data out at this time. I view Trimesta as a hidden bonus to future valuation but most analysts and shareholders would be wise not to factor that in to a primary reason why you are long.

    SYN004 and SYN010 is what will have institutions and potential large pharma partners interesting in SYN. Multi billion dollar markets where SYN could enter and become the gold standard for treatment. We should at least have a 500mm valuation based on our p2A data release..Our time will come.!

    Long and Strong SYN..!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bill Williams Short Tout in Chief

    by ampereviewer Nov 18, 2015 9:50 AM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Nov 19, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    Your right on..Contrary to popular belief these boards are viewed by more investors then you think and posters like short Billy are either paid to post or have their agenda driven by being short. I actually have no problem with taking a side, but posing as a long while sending out warning flares is not about keeping people informed. Just call yourself and short and make you case versus trying to be the wolf in sheeps clothing.

    I am long and feel we have a low hurdle to get over with the FDA and I anticipate the last of the patients are getting their injections to begin the 12 week clock..Play the dark side at your own risk as I see this equity picking up steam into year end and through the results.

    Come of the the closet Billy and we will let you make your constructive short case as you have the same right to take the downside as the longs have to bet on the upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CEO puts his $ where his mouth is

    by my_honest_opinion Aug 26, 2015 9:02 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Nov 17, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    At some point after all the carnage has stopped with the bios and fears of pricing regulation, your summary of the valuation of SRNE will be realized. Until that time we simply need to ride it out and I will continue to add at this deep discount prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OA Pipeline - new trials

    by billwilliams836 Nov 6, 2015 11:44 AM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Nov 9, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    Great stuff Billy. Every time you post I buy more AMPE...Enjoy roasting on your short position!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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