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Curis, Inc. Message Board

mdr0418 74 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 18, 2014 2:56 PM Member since: Jun 11, 2010
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  • Someone dumped at market based on monitoring L2. Either an captial gain offset sale or Kanzer using his remaining bullets strategicallty on light volume days to bring us down. Both scenerios end soon by virture of limted trading days in 2014 and Kanzer's limted shares that remain.

    Long and Strong!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    End of year Tax Strategy and 2015

    by mdr0418 Dec 18, 2014 12:21 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 18, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    It'ss a message board so consider 80 percent of what you read as pure entertainment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    End of year Tax Strategy and 2015

    by mdr0418 Dec 18, 2014 12:21 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 18, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    I am sure both Kirk and Dell were given first shot at participating. I think at least one of them had to have participated, although Kirk is already in so deep that he may have just stood his ground. Best guess is Dell's investment firm went in to the deeper end of the pool, but both are very bullish on the equity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Selling of equities to offset gains is a tricky business when you own paper losses of something you know is a long term winner with short term catalysts ahead. Also with our low float the is no way to gracefully exit without impacting share price as limit orders would not fill. Here are the reasons why SYN will move north over the next 30 days..

    1. SYN004 data will be released before year end and I strongly believe 1A has been a success as the hurdle is not very high and 1B is well underway and will also be successful.

    2. A Trimesta Deal is not far off and after reading all the data on estriol, I believe the MRI data will support Mr. Riley's quest for a premium offer sheet by big pharma.

    3. The JP Morgan Healthcare conference is San Franciso in Janaury will serve as a catalyst with big fund managers meeting with the company and learning about our pipeline and our progress.

    4. Pull up a one year chart ot SYN and begin from January 1st and take it out to mid March. Stock rose over 300% during that period in anticipation of the data release of Trimesta. I believe the performance will duplicate itself, however this time the anticipation will be a Trimesta Deal and when consumated there will be no sell off as the cash infusion will include a large front end cash payment that will extend our runway many years which will fund the remainder of the pipeline. Dilution will have been put to bed.

    5. The annoucement of a deal will take us north of 5 PPS and we will begin to see larger institutional activity coming to the party. Additional analysts will begin coverage and we will have our coming out party.

    My price target at the end of 2015 is 15 dollare per share.

    2015 will be the year of SYN!! Long and Strong!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 15, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Prospern23, Good to hear from you. I keep close tabs on the company and these are the timelines which should hold up. Much like the QCOR board, the trash on this board will depart once the catalysts begin to get triggered. Dry powder will be built back up after the new year and I plan on adding to this equity below 2.00 pps. Management will deliver on their promise to have data released before year end. Having a multi billion dollar drug within our promising pipeline while maintaining a 100 million dollar market cap makes this equity crazy cheap. Yes there is risk associated with any biotech, but the risk/reward ratio is in the same league as what we were presenting with QCOR and we were both aboard that rocket!

    Long and Strong SYN !!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 15, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    1A out before xmas, 1B out before new years..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyers are gone!

    by markhare69 Dec 11, 2014 10:57 AM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 11, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    First of all you display a total lack of market knowledge attempting to indicate that if SYN does not follow the broader market it is a bearish indicator for SYN. "syn has been down 9 out of 10 market days" is another joke. Who makes long term investment decisions over a 10 day period of pps data? Fact also is that SYN was at 50 cents on 11/14/2011..Were up 200% in 3 years!! Fact is you can spin it anyway you care to, but how about providing a thesis behind your bearish case..Have you done any real due diligence about their pipeline and the potential revenue of each indication? Do you know who their competitors are, listened to their conference calls, spoken to any company employees or their IR department, dug into their balance sheet? I think the answer is NO!!

    I don't mind shorts on this board as long as they support their opinion with something other then repeating data points over a 10 day period.

    Fact 1 : Michael Dell and Randall Kirk are not sellers and most prefer following smart money versus a short troll on a message board.

    Fact 2: Volume has dried up and the low float means that holders are holding and the share price has been bracketed since the secondary. We now need news to move this equity which is on the way.

    Fact 3: Phase 1A and 1B data on SYN004 will be out before year end per the company. Over 3000 deaths are associated with C-diff every year and there are no existing drugs to prevent C-diff on the market. This a multi billion dollar market that has yet to be penetrated. I want to be on the bull side of potential block buster.

    Fact 4: I will be buying more shares in 2015 and your an IDIOT!

    Long and Strong SYN!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    30,000 C-Diff Deaths Annually

    by mdr0418 Dec 9, 2014 11:48 AM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 9, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    There are three different approaches to treating C-diff and treating it during the period that patients are on antibiotic IV is the only way to protect the microbiome. I am not aware of any competition in trials who are able to protect the good bacteria and maintain the balance required for sustainable health. The more research being done on the human body the focus there will be on protecting the microbiome from craddle to grave. SYN 004 has no competition currently that provides that protection. I also believe the side effects with regard to safety and tolerability will be found to be far superior of any drug treatment after aquiring C-Diff or as a preventative vaccine.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • SYN004 if proven in trials will not only save 30,000 lives each year but also preserve the good bacteria in the gut which could also be related to other ailments. Consider that 14.4mm are on an antibiotic each year and consider SYN004 as the standard of care after an FDA approval.

    At $500.00 for a 5 day dosing period would equate to 7.2BB just domestically in revenue. Whatever capture rate you want to attach to the total REVS, this drug is in the potential block buster category. Standing alone on SYN004 our valuation is grossly undervalued and that is without mentioning Trimesta, IBSC and whooping cough.

    We will be receiving 1A and 1B news for SYN004 before the end of the year. Since safety and tolerability has already been tested in primates I like our chances in clearing the first couple of hurdles. I also like our chances of receiving fast cycle approval from the FDA since there is currently nothing in the market to treat this deadly disease.

    2015 will be the moving year for SYN and anything at the current pps level is a steal in my opinion.

    Long and Strong SYN!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SYN

    by mrmeshuga Dec 8, 2014 6:25 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 8, 2014 9:24 PM Flag

    SYN and IDRA both took big hits and they are my number 1 and number 2 holdings so it feels good to be vindicated with IDRA. SYN like IDRA has a great pipeline and they also have many catalysts coming up over the next few months. I think you will also see SYN begin to very soon. Good luck to all the longs on IDRA and I will be adding to SYN after the first of year if it wants to stay bracketed around 1.50 once I defer some gains in January...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CBST Response?

    by grandblancace Dec 8, 2014 10:01 AM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 8, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    Your looking at it completely backwards. If we prove we can prevent the disease then we reduce the patient population that requires treatment. The strategy behind SYN004 is to prove the concept and then make it the gold standard of care. Hospitals and insurance companies will also benefit from prevention from an overall cost standpoint. SYN004 will be taken orally anytime a patient is on an IV antibiotic. No need to have drugs to treat when you can prevent the cause of C-Diff...

    As a shareholder my only fear is being taken out before we have had a chance to fully develop this potential blockbuster!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great Buying Opp

    by bullruns5 Dec 4, 2014 9:41 AM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 7, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    Hofno, You may want to mention IBSC as well. We have the best Doctor in the game supporting this science and the control of methane has produced results in weight loss and improved diabetic symptoms in his studies. Throw in whopping cough in our arsenal and there is good reason why you list SYN on the top of your list.

    I have owned QCOR at 3.00 pps and watched it get bought out and was paid out 30 bucks a share and have coverted shares at over 90 pps. A ten timer in SYN is well within our grasp with one successful drug, but a QCOR like performance is a longer term reality if we are not taken out early..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No session ending angel buyer today...

    by jrdelane Dec 4, 2014 6:59 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 7, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    Liz, your points about the Ex CEO and Syn pipeline being lower hurdles are true which is why I hold a higher percentage of SYN. IDRA was slow in reacting, but the finally have a competent CEO running the show and Agrawal who is a key component to the science is back in the lab with a president title where he belongs. Anytime you are running pipelines in oncology you have greater risk in trials and the success rates a much lower. Patients are in many cases are signing up for trials as a last resort measure and mortality rates can delay trials as Curis (CRIS) has experienced and look at their stock.

    We have data on SYN coming out this coming week and or next per the company and it will be interesting to see how the stock reacts on postive news. If my theory is correct, we need large volume to thwart Kanzer if he is still up to his games. The good news is he only has a few more bullets left in my opinion and very soon he will be over run by the longs who understand the value of this equity and how under valued it is at the current valuation.

    2015 will be a year full of catalysts for SYN to include a Trimesta deal domestically and they may also be shopping it internationally as well. IBSC will begin it's assault as well and there will be a huge momentum shift that will take place in the first quarter and 2nd quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Watch the share price at 11:30 PST

    by mdr0418 Dec 5, 2014 2:22 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 5, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    I went in 5 times at market with 3k share increments and there were buyers at the ready. Thought with the low volume I could move it, but there are limit sell orders that I could not blow through at those levels. Looks like we contnue to be bracketed a bit but on both sides which is fine while we wait for data. The good news is I added 15k more shares at great price points.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This will give all the longs some idea of how these guys are playing the share price. I am going to personally move the stock north with only 15k...My guess is I can take it up to 1.60..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No session ending angel buyer today...

    by jrdelane Dec 4, 2014 6:59 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 5, 2014 12:54 AM Flag

    I follow this stock closely in L2 and for those who owned when Trimesta results were published you know that the large drop was due to Kanzer dumping a large block at a market order. He no longer has to file with this SEC due to know being below the minimum level, but after doing my own research on this guy it is obvious that he was out to wreck the share price and was willing to do it at his own peril. It is my own opinion that he has held back some enough shares to shoot a few more bullets at us on low volume days or when positive catalysts are reported just to continue holding down the share price not carrying about maximizing his returns but rather attempting to maximize damage to the share price since he appears to have been kicked to the curb. No way of teling what he still holds, but I estimate several hunderd thousand up to a million based on what he held versus what he sold along with some of the strange trades I have seen in L2 which you mentioned in your note.

    I suspect he has a few more bullets left before it is over, but he better use them soon before I liquidate some of my other holdings I have held for 5 years to defer gains until the next calendar year. I will protect my core position and plan on adding all the way up the ladder on dips up to 2.pps..He will be brining a knife to a gun fight if he is still playing with the share price after this calendar year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thank You Jim Geraghty

    by expstktrader Dec 1, 2014 7:32 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 2, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    As I have communicated to you in various formats I have a lot of respect for your due diligence in all of the stocks you hold with this one being no exception. There were two big gapping holes that this company had which were a CEO and an upgrade to their IR department. Both have now been dealt with and they were able to get it done without losing their lead scientist. A huge win for the shareholders and all of this going into their presentation on Wednesday. Feels like we are flying a kite with a big strong wind coming up. We are going to need more string as we go higher from here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Only a fool would sell into this

    by hugh_jackoman Dec 2, 2014 10:21 AM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 2, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    Agreed. That is why I added at 1.59...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Orchestrated Walk Down???

    by mdr0418 Dec 1, 2014 3:15 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 1, 2014 7:59 PM Flag

    No takers. I will be ready on Tuesday if anyone wants to walk us down again. I am going to continue to load up the wagon as I think our last chance will be prior to a phase one data release. The valuation of this company is quite simply not be reflected in the share price. The pioneer investors will be the big winners here and the window for adding is getting very narrow so dips down to the 1.60 level will be where I jump in although large core position is already tucked away for the long haul so no worries if I miss it. On good data we are busting through this channel we are trading and Trimesta will move us north of 5.00 and that is win the instituitional investors will join the fray in a big way in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Orchestrated Walk Down???

    by mdr0418 Dec 1, 2014 3:15 PM
    mdr0418 mdr0418 Dec 1, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    1.61...Anyone want to dump there are 25 shares waiting..!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CRIS
1.17+0.02(+1.74%)Dec 19 3:59 PMEST

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