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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

mdv_92126 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 11, 2014 10:34 AM Member since: Aug 26, 2000
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  • Rio Tinto Group (RIO) sees a change of leadership in Mongolia as potentially positive for the stalled $5.4 billion expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi project, while leaving open the prospect for another writedown at the mine.

    The ouster of former Prime Minister Altankhuyag Norov last week comes as London-based Rio and Mongolia’s government continue negotiations on disputes around taxes and costs that have held up progress for more than 18 months on an underground extension to the copper and gold mine -- Mongolia’s single-biggest foreign investment.

    “I’m hoping it will be a positive sign,” Chief Executive Officer Sam Walsh said today in Beijing, in an interview with Bloomberg Television, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. “Certainly there are a lot of things that are indicating that people want the project to proceed.”

    VIDEO: Rio Tinto CEO on Mongolia Project, Diamond Business
    Commitments from lenders for $4.2 billion needed to help fund the development expired after a Sept. 30 deadline to reach an agreement was missed, Rio-controlled unit Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. said last month in a statement. The company wrote down the value of the mine by $4.7 billion in March.

    Oyu Tolgoi, located about 80 kilometers (50 miles) north of the Chinese border, will contribute about a third of Mongolia’s economy when in full operation and will be the world’s third-biggest copper mine, according to Turquoise Hill.

    Rio may need to consider a writedown of the mine if delays to the expansion continue, according to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. The project had a book value of $4.96 billion at the end of June, Rio said in an August filing.

    VIDEO: Mongolia Faces Political Uncertainty After PM Ousted
    “Time will tell with that and standing here today, and not actually understanding how quickly we may move to getting the project approved, that’s not possible for me to say,” Walsh said on the prospects of an impairment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    no cheers ---few more months to haggle

    by biosprofittter Sep 22, 2014 8:48 PM
    mdv_92126 mdv_92126 Sep 22, 2014 9:43 PM Flag

    I have to disagree this time. TRQ was holding up the feasibility study until there was a tax resolution -- they must've felt the compromise was sufficient enough ( even if not quite final) to release the feasibility report. They probably expect agreement on any issues and approval of the report by 30 Sep.
    Again, why is the Chairman of RIO going to Mongolia? Vacation destination?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Many News Outlets Report Deal

    by merigoldman Sep 16, 2014 3:46 PM
    mdv_92126 mdv_92126 Sep 17, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    Totally agree. I also view the RIO Chairman's visit this month as a BIG deal. He has no reason to go to Mongolia unless it is for something important.
    Regardless, it has only been 48 hours since TRQ announced that they had received the Letter irt Tax. People should just chill.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by tomstock64 Sep 15, 2014 10:18 AM
    mdv_92126 mdv_92126 Sep 15, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    * Minister says tax bill cut from $130 mln to $30 mln
    * Oyu Tolgoi phase II construction to resume in Q1 2015
    * All disputes ended, feasibility study approval still

    (Adds detail, background, quotes)
    By Terrence Edwards
    ULAN BATOR, Sept 15 (Reuters) - A tax dispute that
    threatened to delay the giant Oyu Tolgoi copper mine being
    developed in Mongolia by Rio Tinto has been
    resolved, a government official said on Monday.
    The $6.5 billion Oyu Tolgoi project will produce more than
    300,000 tonnes of copper concentrate a year once construction is
    fully completed. It is expected to boost Mongolia's economy by a
    third by 2020.
    But the development has been embroiled in a series of
    disputes between its two owners, Rio Tinto-subsidiary Turquoise
    Hill Resources and the Mongolian government.
    Mongolia's vice-minister of mining, Oyun Erdenebulgan, told
    Reuters that the two sides have agreed to cut an outstanding tax
    bill on the project to $30 million. The authorities had
    delivered a $130 million bill in June.
    "I understand both parties are now working closely and
    effectively and nobody wants to delay because of this tax
    issue," he said, adding that the project would resume
    construction in the first quarter of 2015.
    Oyu Tolgoi, located in Mongolia's vast and remote southern
    Gobi region, is 66 percent owned by Torquoise Hill, with the
    Mongolian government holding the remaining 34 percent.
    The first open-pit phase of the project went into operation
    in July 2013, and the mine produced 76,700 tonnes of copper
    concentrate by the end of that year.
    However, the second phase, which involves the underground
    expansion of the mine, has been subject to a series of delays.
    The Mongolian government expressed concern about financing terms
    and cost overruns, and also ordered Turquoise Hill to draw up a
    new feasibility study.
    Oyun said all remaining disputes on the project h

  • mdv_92126 by mdv_92126 Sep 11, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    IMO, This is a legitimate up move with legs. Confluence of perceived 30 Sep financing deadline and news of RIO Chairman visit makes an agreement seem within reach.
    Again, I don't believe TRQ would've signed that power agreement last month unless they expected to proceed with Ph II.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    30 days until September 20th

    by navin_r_johnnson Aug 21, 2014 12:42 PM
    mdv_92126 mdv_92126 Aug 25, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    I don't know when TRQ/Rio will reach resolution of all outstanding issues, however, the Tax bill by GOM was nothing more than a childish temper tantrum. The above process doesn't matter... It too will be resolved in the context of the bigger issues. People shouldn't dwell on the Tax bill.

  • Reply to

    2nd qtr financials and conference call

    by marleydog216 Aug 12, 2014 7:45 PM
    mdv_92126 mdv_92126 Aug 15, 2014 5:30 PM Flag

    But, they have to build the necessary infrastructure for the underground NOW. You don't wait for higher copper/gold prices to build, since it takes 2-3 years.
    They will restart ph II soon, IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Positive step.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdv_92126 mdv_92126 May 14, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    No, all things continue to point at the GOM not doing their part to honor the Investment Agreement.
    "Market conditions"
    1. Today's copper price is irrelevant. It's the price 2-3 years out that matters and is expected to be higher since it takes time to bring the underground to production
    2. Iron ore price: RIO remains massively profitable
    3. RIO stock price: on the rise. The appreciation of just the last month equals the buy-out price for TRQ. Yes, RIO can easily use stock to purchase TRQ vice cash only.

    Your posts continue to be childish.

  • mdv_92126 mdv_92126 May 13, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    So, the author thinks RIO is making more by not mining the underground?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdv_92126 by mdv_92126 May 6, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    Q1 and CC at 11:00.

  • mdv_92126 by mdv_92126 May 6, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    CC at 11:00

  • mdv_92126 by mdv_92126 May 6, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    CC at 11:00

  • mdv_92126 mdv_92126 Apr 30, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    Do you work for the GOM? Do you think that " actively solving" problems means several years?
    RIO owns 50% of TRQ. Got it?
    TRQ owns 66% of the mine. Got it?
    If RIO buys the other 50% of TRQ, RIO will control 66% of the mine and the GOM WILL STILL own 33%. Got it?

  • mdv_92126 mdv_92126 Apr 30, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    What are you talking about? The Mongolians aren't getting bought out!
    Rio isn't going to give up 1/2 the profit of TRQ for the next 60 years, when they can easily digest the other half they don't already own at these depressed share prices. RIO will buy out TRQ when the GOM starts playing fair.

  • mdv_92126 mdv_92126 Apr 29, 2014 11:45 PM Flag

    You're logic isn't logical. Wouldn't RIO love to buyout TRQ while it can cheaply (I.e. During the commodity collapse, as you called it)???
    How is GOM "actively" solving anything? After 2 years of waiting?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdv_92126 by mdv_92126 Apr 24, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    Rio is not "stalling." The GOM issued that letter to Rio in a public forum (vice normal, confidential talks) as pure propaganda. OF COURSE they are ready for mine expansion. But it is the corrupt, inept GOM who is attempting to rewrite a contract to garner more profit and less expense. Rio is protecting our interests by not bending, as this would only open the door to yet another "re-do" later by the GOM.
    The GOM is acting like a child by sending that public letter; as are the children who consider it out of context in this forum.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • To Sep 2014

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The first qtr ends Monday. Why wouldn't they just say 2nd qtr for the completion of the feasibility study?
    IMO, it gives credence to the possibility of. MOU with Mongolia for an interim study by Monday. This week and Monday are this half, but not 2nd qtr.
    Regardless, if you plan to buy at this price, you'll profit handsomely. RIO will take out TRQ whether it is now or a year out.

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