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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

mdwhittier 56 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 2:04 PM Member since: Sep 17, 2012
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  • Reply to

    johnkelly investment firm iz now RICH!

    by jonsrptrichkellyz Jul 18, 2014 11:20 AM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 18, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    jonsrptrichkellyz = Pathological Liar

  • Reply to

    3 patients made the difference....

    by hardfocus Jul 13, 2014 11:10 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 14, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    And that headline would have been exactly the same if the information had been digested after the PR was released. A.F.'s job is to generate hits to TheStreet's website. So, the more provocative the headline the better. What's new about that in journalism?

    And if you haven't followed A.F.'s previous posts about SRPT, he's been much more in the supportive camp than many of his targeted negative articles about other publicly traded biotech companies.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    3 patients made the difference....

    by hardfocus Jul 13, 2014 11:10 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 14, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Yes, things could have been handled differently, and the WSJ article probably did more damage than we can know. Regardless of how the information was disseminated, the perception that a subset of boys declined more than expected has been enough ammunition for the shorts to damage the share price. This is just so typical of biotech stocks; a whiff of negative data and nervous longs bail out, with the help of shorts who drive the price lower to trigger sell stops. Recovery from that always takes more time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    3 patients made the difference....

    by hardfocus Jul 13, 2014 11:10 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 14, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Okay, if you were the CEO, exactly how would you have disseminated this information? Only to shareholders first, in an email? A CC would have just been a cluster F with analysts asking all kinds of questions for which there are no solid answers at this juncture. The reality is that the outcome for the share price would have been the same, regardless of who the messenger was; get over it. There had been such a clamor for C.G. to release the 144 wk data, and rather than risk some type of litigious action, due to withholding of material information, the "averages" data was released.

    Perhaps we'll have to wait for the WMS conference in Berlin (Oct. 7, '14) for the specific data on each patient. Or, for all we know, the slides for that data are currently being developed, and that specific information will be shared in a CC before Oct.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    3 patients made the difference....

    by hardfocus Jul 13, 2014 11:10 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 13, 2014 11:45 PM Flag

    Which goes to show that's it's very difficult to draw meaningful conclusions from just the average results, with this small patient population. All it takes is a few negative outliers (in terms of performance) to skew the results to the downside, making it appear that efficacy is worse than it really is. It's just worse for several patients in this study. There's a host of reasons why there was worrisome decline with any one individual. In this case, the averages will never tell the true story. Really, the data be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. All this will be parsed in due time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    from Jenn

    by thigrlsrk Jul 12, 2014 7:44 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 12, 2014 9:51 PM Flag

    Yes, isn't this the ultimate litmus test? An evidenced-based clinical benefit that is also safe. Not to mention the positive pulmonary data, which isn't part of the primary end-point clinical trial design, but must be considered as an extremely positive element to the trial results.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market Got It Wrong Today

    by fundamental.value Jul 10, 2014 10:35 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 12, 2014 9:36 PM Flag

    What the market "thinks", in this case, is not thinking but knee-jerk, herd mentality. You only take a loss if you sell for less than what you paid.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market Got It Wrong Today

    by fundamental.value Jul 10, 2014 10:35 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 12, 2014 8:38 PM Flag

    What exactly are the "empty promises" of which you speak? There are no givens in clinical trials, and the 6-mwt is subject to some degree (as noted by FDA), of possible skewed results due to differential "effort" for each subject in the cohort in the 6-mwt. (This is not my knock, but the point has been made.) Could the original cohort have been bigger? Most definitely, and if it had been, we would have much more robust data. Right now, we deal with what exists.

    Regarding the latest downdraft in the share price - fear always trumps greed in herd mentality. The rush to the exits is always more swift and powerful. Since I don't need the money, the share price decline is just a number, and it only impacts personal perception of my wealth. If I die in the interim, my Trust cannot sell any SRPT shares for 5 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market Got It Wrong Today

    by fundamental.value Jul 10, 2014 10:35 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 12, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    You can't leave out ICPT (6mo chart)....eye popping crazy volatile, no?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Data thoughts....

    by jrrt1 Jul 12, 2014 5:55 AM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 12, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    Well stated, coop......."math games with averages ............a side show show that just confuses people." Efficacy is only questioned here by the data nerds, who think the "n" is just too small, and that "effort" can sufficiently skew the data to create the appearance of efficacy when none truly exists.

    It's a good enough argument for the short contingent, and traders, to cause damage to the share price; herd mentality and all that. I'm disappointed in the downdraft, but being in this for the long haul, I'm confident that the confirmatory trials will be positive, and I'm not selling any of my position.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market Got It Wrong Today

    by fundamental.value Jul 10, 2014 10:35 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 12, 2014 6:36 PM Flag

    Well, with the lead up to the 2000 biotech bubble, you could almost throw a dart on a biotech board and pick your choice of a volatile stock. VRTX and MEDX readily come to mind most easily as seriously volatile. Just look at the LT chart.

    The kool aid that longs are accused of drinking will become a delicious dessert wine with 2-3 years of aging. Patience is a virtue here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market Got It Wrong Today

    by fundamental.value Jul 10, 2014 10:35 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 11, 2014 6:30 PM Flag

    f.v. - Your points are well taken. Yesterday, it was classic panic selling, fueled in part by such short notice of the released data before the market opened, and the absence of specific inter-patient data. As a long-term investor in SRPT I've decided to relax about the ups/downs of one the most volatile biotech stocks I've ever owned, in over 25 years of investing in this arena. This panic selling presented an opportunity to add more at artificially depressed prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 10, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    I get all of that pasteur. I don't need your "this is clinical trial 101 stuff" reminder. Given that Etep. wasn't meant to be the cure-all, it simply has to show meaningful clinical benefit.

    Really, there are oncology drugs that merely prolong life by a matter of months, that have gained FDA approval. That Etep. slows progression of the disease is mostly agreed upon by the majority of DMD experts I'm confident that future trials will continue to show that Etep. slows progression of disease, and provides meaningful clinical benefit to these boys. Future trials may also include readouts on pulmonary function, as part of the trial endpoints, which would be very appropriate. I'm in for the long haul with SRPT. This downdraft worries me not one bit, and I can still sleep at night.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Simp

    by jim_himmel Jul 10, 2014 1:39 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 10, 2014 9:36 PM Flag

    Many longs here share your pain, myself included. However, since I'm long in Roth/IRA accounts, and don't need the $$ for many years, I really don't care about these kind of events. I'm confident that next year will bring good news on several fronts, from the company and the stock valuation will reflect that. A year from now, this will be just a big hiccup in the rearview mirror.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 10, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    This is not unheard of, and given that A.F. has been four-square positive on Etep., and believes that it will likely be approved, he was a logical choice for early journalist contact.

    Also, he's street savvy, and knows the reality of the trading landscape. He was able to prepare his piece ahead of the bell, but it didn't influence the trading overall. A.F. can pack some punch, but in this case the data was a tough pill to swallow for longs, and the shorts jumped at the chance to push the stock lower, and trigger sell stops, furthering their gain.

    C.G. is as good a CEO as you'll find in the biotech world. If you don't like the CEO or the stock then get out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 10, 2014 9:21 PM Flag

    I'm with you, neuro21. Body mass index must be a part of the calculus in this equation.

    On a separate topic, you'd think that the level of pulmonary functioning (maintaining vs decline) would also become a marker in the overall benefit profile of Etep. Given that natural history progression eventually leads to the need for ventilation, it appears that Etep. may keep these boys off of ventilators, and this surely must be considered a significant clinical benefit. I wonder if future trials have this built into the design assessment. If not, it should be.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    For Christ' sake Chris, Fix Your Leak

    by greyzone513 Jul 10, 2014 1:36 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 10, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Hey greyzone, think about it; there's lots of ways for leaks to occur that are completely outside of C.G.'s control. Look at it this way, in 6-9 months, if you were a member of the AdCom, and the drug showed significant stability in pulmonary function, which increased life span by a measure of years, how would you vote? This is a fatal disease, right? Remember, these boys are growing and gaining weight with reduced muscle capacity. A decline in benefit, given at average age of 12 yrs. isn't shocking. At some point, this isn't just about the 6-mwt.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ding-a-ling Carl

    by likeafox7210 Jul 10, 2014 12:09 PM
    mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 10, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    Not sure how you interpreted "over promise" but I don't think he's guilty as charged. This is new territory at 144wks, and while the data showed more significant decline (6mwt) in the placebo delayed cohort, this is a lot less than historical disease progression would predict. Look at it this way, if you were a member of AdCom, and the drug showed significant stability in pulmonary function, which would increase life span by a measure of years, how would you vote?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 10, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Exactly! Would the FDA deny a drug that improves the pulmonary functioning of DMD boys sufficiently enough to prolong their lives? Let's not lose sight of the greater good here for Eteplirsen. FDA will approve in due time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mdwhittier mdwhittier Jul 10, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    Yes, it's a big hit to the share price, but not surprising. Your point, yags, is what true investors are focused on. If a child with DMD loses the ability to walk, but maintains sufficient pulmonary functioning, then the drug has prolonged life, period. This alone would be sufficient reason for AA, and eventual FDA approval. I remain unwavering in my belief that this drug is significantly better than the alternative of no treatment. That's the crux of the matter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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