I agree some and disagree with other points.
I think that there are "potential" offers in waiting but nothing ever proposed. There is one problem for assigning value and two trigger events for determining the value of any offer to be made. The problem is one of BABU. He hates managements and change and will likely shoot off on his own should any offer be made. 4161 is one value, but there is a BCRX value with and WITHOUT Babu. One value is significantly higher than the other.
Then nobody is going to buy period if they can't get anything THROUGH the FDA thanks to that bravado. So we need orphan status for 4161 and or approval of P to prove we have kissed and made up before any company thinks they will get their monies worth on any offer should they make one.
The posts I make here are to .... more intelligent .... conversationalists and are to stimulate idea generation for issues I miss or misdiagnosis. FYI: I do care where things are going overall. I mean, why buy at $11 if you can buy more at $10? Which is my next buy point now that $11.50 broke.
If you look at the IPO, that is going to drain 25 billion right off the top. The speculation is that the stock could double which takes out another 25 billion plus. Approximately 80% of funds are behind their indexes that they are compared to, so they really, really, really, need this pop to get whole.
It isn't just us, fully 86% of tech in the NASDAQ 1000 are in bear market territory now. My "guess" is the consensus is that the funds that have been exiting ALL biotech believe that they have time to get back into BCRX because they believe the FDA is tied up with Ebola and everything else ( there is more drugs due than just our stuff which is what drove the sector up) is going to be on hold.
If this is true, then I figure the dumping continues until BABA trading opens and we see a top which could really be awhile. There has to be news that raises the risk / reward above BABA before we see much of anything coming back.
Thanks. I appreciate the info. But I am not going to move the price needle much now.
Then the question needs to be asked, why aren't institutions finding this information important enough to continue to hold? Or more to buy in? I know the EBIDA figure of 3X is a negative. Normally, 2.5X is considered high for an oil E&P. For gas E&Ps, it is slightly lower because of the return. I don't know this multiple though.
3000 troops. I wonder BCRX has opened their account with the 1st National Bank of Botswana of the Camines?
Somebody will show BCRX how much it costs to make 4430 in the method they are using it and the profit margin they will be paid. Then the account simply starts receiving money. This will continue until the civilian system catches up to where the procurement moves above board.
Coarse, we will never know this because it won't be reported, the bottles will have no labeling for troops to read, but mysteriously, the known cash burn rate will just start to drop for some unknown period of time.
Ahhhhh, the market is sure going to think so when this comes out. And at a time when investors pulled 5% out of mutual funds for the last week. ( It's September you know ) :)
This was why I thought that it was going to take longer for the $NBI / market to recover. And if the IPO works, then individuals will begin to sell and try to ride the wave. So the market could get much worse before it gets better. Think of this IPO as if it were 20 IPOs coming to market all at the same time.
Looks like every institution wants out at the same time. Probably to close out and raise money for the Aibaba IPO which is why they are raising the offering.
You need institutional volume to dramatically move a stock. And right now there are just too many unanswered questions that the company has said "trust us".
Just what does "highly accretive to earnings mean? We got no guidance for next quarter. What's the PV10 now? And nothing. So without answers to those and more questions, it is going to take time or a presentation set of slides for folks to get answers. That was a H U G E percentage of debt for a company this size and the market needs to know that they didn't over pay.
10 Liberian politicians were fired for extended overseas missions that didn't exist. That gives you an idea of what they think, not only of their current situation, but trust in "the system" of support aid.
Now the President is thinking of sending in military medical units. Ever wonder why this hasn't happened already?
If he does, this will be a good sign that they can be protected. It will fall under USAMRIID to protect them and that bypasses all the hoopla. We will see how much 4430 they have manufactured and how they think it works best; either as an injection, a serum, an inhalant or a pill by what the troops get. And exactly when they get it. ( before or after )
On the flip side, if he doesn't, then that tells me they aren't ready yet for what ever the hold up is. (it doesn't work, side effects, behind on manufacturing, whatever )
I'm kinda impressed. During the last MACD down cycle, the down portion was too quick so the up cycle ran out of gas prematurely. We were only down about 2 1/2 weeks before turning. This run looks like that, assuming the Sept 12s are the target for Friday's options expiration, that we will have at least a nice 4 week downer before turning the next wave up into what has been a historically better time period for bios in general. What is kind of remarkable here is that we broke a 14 month up trend and the stock has held price fairly well so far. But ...........
BCRX's MACD cycles have been leading the $NBI index for the last couple of cycles. ( HAE news I suppose ) And that index still looks like it has another 2 to 4 weeks of work ahead of it. So how we fight the tape will determine if we stay ahead of the index or fall back into line with it. ( $11.50 holds ) Minus news, I can't see this low volume pushing us to new highs if the index isn't with us. Could you imagine what price BCRX could have achieved with 5 million shares a day volume like ARWR or ACHN have had for the past 30 days?
Orally administering BCX4945 twice a day for seven days cleared the infections from all the animals between the fourth and seventh day of treatment. The monkeys remained parasite-negative for up to nine days post-treatment. Parasitic infection eventually returned in all three monkeys after treatment ended, although a lower rate of parasitic growth was observed. No signs of toxicity were observed during the study period (30 days after the first dose).
I guess they dropped it for this reason, but I find nothing to confirm this.
Why? He plays racket ball with Babu. :)
Smart not to endorse an EIND product when you don't know if there are any side effects that patients will grow horns and become pathological killers. But it seems easier a few years later after nothing happened.
Expectations ARE pretty low. But this is different than Japan where there are 30 approved products available and 29 of them are below $100. How many are going to pick that expensive 30th item? And if 29 you can snort, but that 30th requires a needle, again most will avoid that product. Here, there is one factor and one factor only, as long as insurance covers it, everybody wants the good stuff.
And it depends on who they get to sell it. It will take till next seasons flu to really know as it will take that long for insurance decisions to accept it after an approval. I F " it is approved. The news will do your advertising.
What ever happened to the Malaria stuff they had? That was being heralded as the first new treatment in decades.
Your list is nice, but if BCRX doesn't want to announce to maintain an edge in competition they are kidding themselves if your list is accurate. Everything thing on that list already has competition and it is further along than us unless ours is a cure and not a treatment. :)
Yo Yui, you are alive. I missed why you exited, but I miss a lot round here.
Three reasons. 1. First is that the FDA hasn't given "orphan status" to HAE. So will they? This leads to reason 3 which scares any potential acquirer.
2. The logical acquirer that BCRX was the most likely because 4161 was a direct threat to, was acquired.
3. Third is the FDA anger against BCRX during the Peramivir fiasco which is on going. If you notice, the failure to obtain FDA approval in August when it was logical to do so, has brought this back to the forefront and caused institutional selling. And what the Ebola situation has demonstrated, that no matter how many people die, how much the political pressure from governments, the UN, bosses of the FDA are powerless. The FDA simply does what it wants, when it wants and flips a middle finger to the world. So will Peramivir ever be approved? The longer it goes, the worse the chances really. They know how much their bosses really need this for political cover and they just let it hang.
Let the above result to the positive, and I believe the interest comes in HARD.
For the last year, at every opportunity, we have heard and been teased about two, new drugs / molecules that target disease that BCRX currently does not have a product for. I am NOT referring to the two additional molecules for HAE.
Has anyone here heard about what the two new pipeline candidates are?
With 40 years of separate news events out there that will do nothing but continue as this situation does nothing but advance, (normal flu season is fighting for attention too) what has been demonstrated is that the current system is more of public feel good, government make work jobs because nothing functions as it should in today's communication age. Not only are systems to address what is known a failure with limited and expiring stocks, but the system to handle the unexpected results in slow to poor decisions when they even get made.
Events occur, information processed, decisions made, communication rendered, with no actionable result. Until they can develop procedures to energize the FDA or beef up that organization to handle more than a standard, everyday government work pace, all these other people / positions / jobs are pretty much useless and a waste of money.
First presentation after the Ebola gathering, so I will be happy if they are on schedule with all the other stuff and that 4430 hasn't been front and center all this time. Be nice to get a news release that morning about something other than 4430.