You guys like positives. Expectations are fairly low at least judging by the options through January and it looks like the $12s will be the focus based upon what is known today.
Every day that we trade in this range eliminates more and more people / institutions that want to sell at this level. I would like to have been a fly on the wall at the NIH meeting yesterday and I wonder how many potential investors we will get from that meeting. Those guys go back and talk to colleagues too.
The wider the base ..............................................................................
They are hedged out into 2016 if I understood properly ($4.50) and under contract for some other. Just like all these other smaller E&Ps which make this .... game of declines a joke. AXAS has the price of Oil at $95 a barrel every dam day.
Anybody that lends to this industry, and certainly to the smaller players, pretty much requires hedges as a condition of the loan.
Well, I could be happier with cracking the FDA barrier for sure and an increasing stock price, but my point is that we have been satisfied to hold BCRX for years when the " hope " was for a single product announcement.
And now we (me too) have a trifecta going and we are getting .... impatient. :)
Just increases the potential for multiple compacted news events during a time when the market will tend to show more appreciation to small biotech stocks.
And for those of us that have been in the Federal system, we know that there are only about 5 productive working weeks left in the year from a mental standpoint and there is competition for that time. Don't be disappointed if the events related to HAE turn out to be a 1st quarter phenom. I am not sure that BCRX has repaired that negative FDA bias and maybe should consider the European approval route for that first anyway since Ebola is likely to occupy the FDA into the spring / summer.
IMO: no it hasn't. We want quiet and low volume to get this stock away from Ebola being a requirement for sector participation. Time to shift gears to flu season which a lot of CYA is going to be needed on the part of gov't agencies to pull their bacon out of the fire with all their stockage being expired..
Much better to have the news events take place during the biotech season than to waste them now.
From my research, WRES has and had for awhile the highest percentage of institutional ownership of any smaller cap E&Ps (less than 1 billion) that I found. That has advantages .... and disadvantages. The biggest positive is that occurs when the stock moves up is that you know their research got them into it in the first place, but the supply of stock dries up which helps the advance.
But .... when the players are few and everyone knows the other wants to sell, everyone pulls away until somebody starts to buy. They all know each other and they all get the research and make decisions at the same time with little interest in helping "the other guy".
Translation: When the tide turns, the decline is exaggerated just like the advance was so extremes are the likely outcome. The tide is getting ready to turn and if the earnings and call support re-entry, this will rally VERY quickly to what ever the value level turns out to be. One thing for sure, we WILL get a definition by WRES as to what "HIGHLY accretive" means to them. :) That should impact the PE and add fuel to the launch.
Yea, well, what I see is a list of new investors that will be in a position to make some money should BCRX do well. :)
Publicity never hurts.
This crisis has been embarrassing on many fronts for health care in this country.
USAMRIID has been W A Y ahead of other government agencies mostly because they control their own destiny and also because of the pool of money that they can draw from. But nobody talks to them as this example shows.
One government agency expands a contract and issues a 4 mil payment for BCRX to make 4430 into a serum and that had already been done over 1 year earlier by USAMRIID. All BCRX had to do was make a phone call.
But they have been in Africa since late summer. Since they don't provide a "patient" care function, (research Org only) and do to the article in the Liberian Times accusing them of testing Ebola drugs in September, and the big drop in the death rate since then, one of those drugs must be having a positive effect. :)
Relax, it's about to change when the MACD signals a buy here in the near future.
When the S-3 came out that the 6.6 million shares were going to be sold by Citrix Energy last month, short interest exploded and the dive began. My guess is that the shares are sold and we are just waiting for that realization to set in and to give the pros the time to cover here.
Maybe the wait for approval will have a benefit. Hospitals are looking to see a surge of ER activity for the flu this year (thanks to Ebola) from people that would have normally stayed home. Insurance companies are worried that admissions will be up because hospitals hurt by Obama care will try to make some money back.
Sounds like a .... more positive back drop for RAPIVAB and maybe a larger company to peddle the stuff.
Never mind. I found it. Sales of juju beads have sky rocketed. On the back is the handy dandy guide to Witch Doctoring. :)
Ahhhhh, we were told that all three doctors in Liberia and 40 health care workers had died and that there was NO hospital space for all the sick when numbers were about 1000. That's why our troops were sent over to build this hospital network.
So where is this mystery care coming from?
Boy oh boy, this board has slipped. You intelligent guys normally pick up on minute details and are missing a BIG point here.
Prior to August death rate was over 98%, considering that things are, or should be, MUCH WORSE than it was now that so many doctors and health care professionals DIED, the death rate is down by 40% from what it was.
Doesn't this make ANYBODY curious? :)
Yep, hit 12.50 and the buy stops will trigger. But they are going to try and defend this level to close out the 12s "IMO". We are probably eating some of yesterdays purchases.
What happens Monday will be of importance. I'm like mdaddy now, too close to news events to play, unless they want to pay.
A positive I see is the smaller and smaller amount of shares that are moving the stock. Just like it was irrational last month's option expiration for major selling during that decline, this months is draining it nicely.
I say, don't be sore short some more. You are the rocket fuel that will launch this higher.
Seems that all the agencies from BARDA to the CDC are going to meet and decide if the budget for NIH needs to be augmented to "expedite" drug development for Ebola.
This turned out to be a perfect example from which to explain my understanding of the Options portion of the trading Algo. Folks like to want to look at open interest to guage the effect of options. They say options for BCRX should have minimal effect comparred to what I am saying. But it is not BCRX's open options but a cumulative sum game across the market. How do you know? Watch the Tuesday activity before expiration.
Take last month. The market tape was flat to up and the $NBI rose every day into expiration. On the Tuesday before expiration, there was a large and rapid sell order early that broke us down and away from the expected close range of $12. This was when the options portion of the trading algo was activated and essentially told those in the know what was going on. And we declined every day into expiration regardless of the market. I told you that this was most like a mistake. Except for the spike up two weeks ago, we basically floundered for a month. Then the error was .... corrected this month.
Yesterday, the Tuesday before expiration, we got the volume surge to the upside and wondered why buying would be so unprofessional when it didn't have to be. This showed the players what the algo was going to do this month and we are moving up in a heavy down market and $NBI this month.
Question is, what happens next month?