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Penn Virginia Corporation Message Board

me2yousee 191 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2014 11:39 AM Member since: Feb 25, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Will $11.40 Be Breached Today?

    by me2yousee Jul 22, 2014 6:49 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jul 22, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Since I've had so much response to that question, let me ask another. If the MACD cycle was still negative and the stock had a 400k to 600k volume day, which direction was the normal direction of prices?

    We are still in the downtrend till we break it, but this is already trading better than the last down cycle and I would venture a guess that this attempt at $13 succeeds on the next up leg towards $17 if we have the patience. Good luck buying size now.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • More of a wall than I expected it to be without any support structure to back it up. Just another bump in the road as we turn build the flat top triangle for the fall run.

    Come on indexes!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • me2yousee me2yousee Jul 20, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    “The U.S. is funding the studies with a hope that the medicine will treat such diseases,” he said. “We are leaving it to the U.S. on how it plans to take advantage of the medicine.”

    There is that dreaded and fickle federal spending again. My guess is this project could already be history.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    what would a reasonable buyout target be? $ 16?

    by ohnorash Jul 20, 2014 8:30 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jul 20, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    All time dependent based upon timing and maturity of the products in development. Monday morning? $13 would be enough to kick off the bidding and maybe, maybe close the deal as most funds would be happy to record that gain in the current quarter. And THEY control the stock now.

    I just don't see it this year really. Statistically, the 1st quarter sees the highest percentage of these types of deals for " developmental " stage bios. It is an easier sell to your shareholders if you pay $20 for a $15 dollar company than $20 for an $11 one. That's why they happen then. And the October - April run should get us there all by itself if Peramivir is approved. More with a bad flu season. So time is a key component now.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Positive: Extreme respect as a company for science in the industry as seen by the partnerships. And how many developmental stage bios can actually borrow anything from anybody?

    Negative: High burn rate because they didn't wait to have a product to support this model.

    Boy this is truly boom or bust, with the market playing out most of the bust scenario already. I like the odds for the Oct - April seasonal run to have positive news maybe on several fronts. I will buy the August to Sept dips for my January effect play this year. But this could be as good as it gets in the next couple of weeks if I draw downtrend lines.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Tnk vs. Nat

    by scooterntheoc1 Jul 17, 2014 2:55 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jul 19, 2014 7:04 AM Flag

    The mills just moved to different locations as more steel is made today than ever.

    The only other way to move crude is to lay pipe which isn't practical beyond where it has already been laid. And those pipes pass through areas that make them vulnerable to .... tampering. The problem is or has been one of greed leading to mismanagement.

    This has ALWAYS been a cyclical, boom / bust industry and one of the last to recover from recessions. Bottom line is that it will come back. This isn't like the horseshoe industry unless I am missing something.

    The real key to investing is understanding the cycles of industries. When to be in and when to be out.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BCRX Events coming up:

    by maphere Jul 16, 2014 10:54 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jul 18, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    So does Mylan. And a lot of their product line is flu related.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New Shareholder

    by me2yousee Jul 17, 2014 10:03 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jul 18, 2014 7:08 AM Flag

    I understand Ed. Stock hit my second buy point at the 50 day average. My next buy point is $10, just because it is a round number, but I am prepared to see $9.

    Just averaging in because I stink at picking bottoms and tops. I do want to be fully in by the 3rd week of August when I think Peramivir will be approved.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • me2yousee by me2yousee Jul 17, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    Hit my first buy point. Actually the stock looks pretty good here. Has held up well and "maybe" finished a down leg with an exhaustion gap dump at the open and quick closure. Has to break downtrend though to confirm and that means we need 11.40 for "guarantees". :)

  • Reply to

    Tnk vs. Nat

    by scooterntheoc1 Jul 17, 2014 2:55 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jul 17, 2014 7:00 AM Flag

    In a bull market, the most money is made in sector advances. After this long market run, there are NOT too many sectors that can be had for close to or below book value. (haven't run yet) This sector is one.

    So the only real question is, will the sector ever recover? If you say yes, then you win either way. NAT has a great dividend on NAO shares that goes ex next Tuesday. After that, I prefer NAO (different segment in the shipping sector) or TNK.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BCRX Events coming up:

    by maphere Jul 16, 2014 10:54 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jul 17, 2014 6:48 AM Flag

    5. Stateside deal with someone to market Peramivir after it is approved. (won't be much but somebody has a sales force that needs something new to push.)

  • Reply to

    Canaccord

    by firemon2001 Jul 9, 2014 2:22 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jul 14, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    Ahhh, you were trashed here, with the timing being what it was, so that their large clients could acquire stock on the cheap before the NAO distribution story hit the tape. That's why the research was so bad. That poor guy was probably told to stool it out before he went home and he did the best he could do with the time he had.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • 337 now dead. All of West Africa in out break zone. Resources exhausted. No doctors or medical teams left to send to new outbreak areas.

    And you guys thought this died away.

    http://news.yahoo.com/ebole-control-west-africa-163439458.html;_ylt=AwrBEiSaWKhTqHEA1YnQtDMD

  • me2yousee by me2yousee Jun 23, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    As if it couldn't get worse.

    The worst thing I want to see on a chart with an over bought stock is the middle finger of death. And to do it with an exhaustion gap up is right out of the text book.

    This BETTER not close down today or the print will stand.

  • Reply to

    Market wants too much from SWHC...

    by libertee4all Jun 22, 2014 11:39 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jun 23, 2014 6:44 AM Flag

    " IMHO there are no positive catalysts in sight for a few months and the stock may be like watching grass grow for a while."

    This is a manufacturing company in a smaller industry segment doing virtually everything right that is taking market share and selling at @ an 11 PE that sees enough value to still be buying back stock. The segment in which it operates is unlikely to garner a higher market PE without the market establishing one.

    It should be boring, steady money anyway. Think of it as a bank on steroids and you won't build too high of expectations.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Those darn shorts...

    by equity_360 Jun 21, 2014 11:38 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jun 21, 2014 7:53 PM Flag

    The debt can be AAA rated, doesn't matter. And banks can short too. I was giving you a generality of how debt is treated and why you see so many long term shorts that people automatically assume it is a prognosis on the company or the business forecast for it. Often short interest has nothing to do with the actual business.

    And banks can trust SWHC, but not politicians that could immediately wipe out business with the stroke of a vote.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Those darn shorts...

    by equity_360 Jun 21, 2014 11:38 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jun 21, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    Generally, when a company issues debt, the stock goes down. A certain percentage of the buyers will protect their principal by shorting the common so if the issuer of the debt can not pay back the loan, they get their principal back on the short. Particularly " IF " they don't have to worry about paying a dividend.

    This becomes longer duration activity that comes and goes (they don't want to lose money on the short either) and distorts the true picture. This activity is pretty heavy in any business sector there is potential for negative events outside of the control of the company (politics or weather, etc) .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    manipustock

    by ohnorash Jun 20, 2014 3:54 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jun 21, 2014 6:12 AM Flag

    All strategy. Ever watch a stock trade and volume spikes and the price jumps for a quick minute and ask yourself why that institution wasn't patient and accumulate slowly at lower prices? Institutions that want to acquire stock will post a "phantom block" of stock above trading range so that it is high enough not to get bought and big enough to hold volume down. They accumulate below that. Once another institution figures out the game, they will spike the volume to run up and grab that block before it can be pulled and then they buy the stock back down.

    The point is that every one plays a game to get around someone else's game. Smaller stocks fall victim to it especially without news to generate volume. And then you have news feeds that publish coming news events. Like XOMA was the last I saw where they are do trial news of some sort by month end. Good .... or bad, volume will now run higher, just like it did for BCRX. They will spike it one way or the other and move on to the next flower.

    That is what has me concerned here. And if you cruse the sites, every bio and energy company is a buy out candidate and the stock action does not accurately reflect the potential of the company even though prices are way up from historic averages or just 6 months ago. That generally sets the stage for a correction.

  • Remember that the end of May prices @ $16 were used to calculate the rebalance for 2014 and prices this year are 50% higher this year than last. That means that funds that track the Russell will have till the end of June to acquire 50% more stock to track the indexes in which SWHC is traded. They gotta buy no matter what.

    That's gonna tighten up that float pretty good even if management doesn't lay in the stock to guarantee next quarter's beat. And you just KNOW that is already planned. How big is that float again?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee me2yousee Jun 19, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    You could be right. But then again, volume has been double or more for almost a week before the shares were priced. While somebody bought, somebody sold them.

    How many people are left to sell on more than week old news? So, from a statistical standpoint, I figure that my guess is closer.

    Sentiment: Buy

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