oooh, oooh, let me guess. Pontification? :)
Ahhhhhh deal making? :)
Personally, I prefer low volume news releases.
Didn't they say on the CC that an IND for 4430 would be filed in November? Tomorrow is a half day and Friday they are probably closed.
This was heavily owned by institutions because it had been a conservatively run company. They wanted to wait and see the definition of "highly accretive" and were disappointed that it wasn't enough to take on the debt risk. Now they are blowing out into a market with willing .... but opportune buyers.
Shame, three months later and WRES could have probably paid 100 million less which would mean that they would not have had to issue stock. (another blow when Citrix blew out so quickly) When the debt goes down, the earnings will shine even at these prices. But when asked about paying down the debt, saying the bonds mature in 2022 was the real killer. So the institutions are moving on.
BCRX has had the ability to discover many molecules, but the finances to develop few. As an example, we have a top secret one for something that we don't want to discuss because somebody might compete against us. Want a reality check? They probably already are. And how many have we found that we avoided simply because of too much competition or too high a dollar development? The malaria one comes to mind.
Babu isn't the only one cranking out small molecules. Take Techmira's Ebola drug. Basically it's a cocktail of three small molecules which .... shows other possibilities for 4430 as a collaborative project at some point too. Since 4430 is an anti-viral, who says that it only has to be used against scourges and plagues? Why not beef up Peramivir with a 4430 cocktail to make it even more effective against simple flu?
My point is that the opportunity exists with FDA acceptance of Peramivir to establish some research credibility with the industry. Why not use that? Why not develop candidates up to phase one status and then sell them at smaller dollar levels as opposed to letting them die as a bigger project like 4208? Much faster cash flow for other projects you want to keep.
I am not trying to stick up for AZN, but the results I posted were 2b. That leads me to believe there was a 2a trial, so maybe the patient totals were closer to equal.
And from that I suspect that, while BCRX's trial was designed to go to a phase III effort from the beginning, " I " think AZN thought they were going to get orphan drug status after 2b. (see my last line)
Now who would have lead them to THAT belief? And usually the FDA .... guides on trial set up and patient numbers. Was the FDA trying to pick a 'winner"? And when one small molecule drug fails, they pull back on everything else in the sector. This MAY be why 4208 was never sold. Remember, this was about the same time of the small molecule cancer treatment failures if I am not mistaken. Everything was stopped from every company and remains so today. Remember the Phen Phen ordeal and how long it took to get a weight loss drug through? Is this the same thing?
(My cousin worked for AZN for quite a few years up until 2013 and they got periodical .... updates on new stuff in the pipe.)
AZN had a history or acquiring drugs and had too many going off patent. For a period they went ..... almost irrationally after candidates.
And essentially, their status hasn't changed. It's grow or die.
-- Updated results from a Phase 2b monotherapy study of RDEA594 in 123
gout patients demonstrating a 60% response rate at the highest dose
-- Interim results from an ongoing Phase 1b study examining the
pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of RDEA594 and allopurinol
separately and in combination that demonstrate a 100% response rate in
patients receiving two different doses of RDEA594 combined with
-- Results from multiple studies indicating that the efficacy of RDEA594
is not diminished in patients with mild-to-moderate renal impairment.
-- Safety results from five clinical studies indicating that RDEA594 is
well tolerated alone or in combination with allopurinol or febuxostat
(Uloric®, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Adenuric®, Ipsen and
Menarini), with no occurrence of drug-related serious adverse events
or dose-related side effects.
What I want to see is if somebody fights the algo and allows computers to feed him stock like the end of day yesterday. I would consider that a good sign that pros think accumulation will be tough going.
If not, then there is no pent up demand minus news which further explains the trading range.
If you hold your nose and look at a chart we see that the stock has really been reactive (volume) of late when it breaks short term trendlines both directions and there is little conviction either way. (no follow through) I think we just experienced a test probe down trying to break the up line to see how much stock would shake lose and except for index / ETF action, little traded.
Either that or the algo is set for the $10 level and we will be stuck within 3/8ths of $10 till Monday.
Yes, and the short bet paid off really. The stock is down 40% from the highs where they were hammering any push above $14. So the trade / gamble was profitable. And trades end eventually or become investments.
What we need is not for old funds to add because they pick and poke. We need a newbie that says, " Get me in NOW " ! ! !
That's the guy that's going to change the tone in this trading activity.
Maybe, .... but these hedge funds that have taken the short positions are statistically behind the indexes for the current year and will want to reposition for next year which should occur by January 15th.
I thought that the key information I wanted folks to notice was the stock price reaction of a dead money stock like XOMA to a positive cross of the MACD. That reaction to a positive cross hasn't been seen in these developmental bios since last winter.
And .... BCRX will eventually cross positive all coming during a volume slow down period common to the after Thanksgiving period. In other words, it amplifies problems for shorts and should increase the reaction.
I think we are finally setting up to leave this trading range going into next year and the move might NOT be subtle.
According to the 10k, the gov't is only interested in the IV and IM configurations. Pills are out for now. And if the IND is filed, they will need so much for testing and such. Plus I thought I read about 2000 doses once upon a time.
We do know from Jubilant that they have had no cancellations. BCRX could still have moved on for Peramivir and are saving the contract slot for a batch(s) of 4430 instead.
Poor Stoney. If news breaks, they will have to make up new slides. If two things happen like a new IND for 4430 and Opus II for HAE, then they might need to hire somebody with computer skills to get these done. And if the IND does go through and new slides are made up, will the monkeys be on those?
for a nice chunk and I used the profits to buy some more BCRX. Even with tomorrows Death Cross, it just HAS TO be time. Then we will be talking about the Golden Cross around January.