Yea and FINVIZ has it at 67 million for the float. And there is no law that they have to be accurate.
It's the definition of "insider" that throws it and 3 month old institutional data. I define it as when one individual is no longer able to make a sell decision so emotion is removed from the decision. MSN has professional ownership at 86%. If true, that means the whole float is shorted.
OK, I forgot that they tabulated that. But lets dissect that 2603. Going by my list, I'll bet that 20% are no longer involved with the stock and just haven't changed their list. What idiot hold a bio over the summer? :) Of the remainder, 40% of those are long less than say 2000 shares because it would simply be too large a position of their portfolio.
Those that own more are informed and understand the article has errors. OF those that like to short, they are the paid preferred traders and sold Friday.
Unless some institution uses these guys for research, I still don't expect a tidal wave of selling now. Back in August sure but we got it thru Sept, but not now.
Numbers came from Scotttrade and NASDAQ. I won't know because I don't short. I count on others here for that kind of info which is why I posted them.
You don't sound surprised? I figured we were already short the entire float till I did the math.
Good find, but another spit into the wind.
The FDA was only supposed to ensure public safety and that drugs were tested safe and drug companies could not make outlandish claims for their product. The slow down occurred when they went from letting the market establish commercial viability to it determining winners and losers.
Look how much faster Japan's system is that upholds that discipline.
I hope that you guys realize that these articles are put out to "special" members in advance to front run the .... "fleece the flock" action. But it is done all the time. Clearly, you have to have individuals to fleece and stock to borrow to do that. So where are we at in the BCRX game?
BCRX has 70.71 million outstanding with 84.1% owned institutionally. 10.17 million is short already of the 11.4 million float. How many of those 1.2 million shares are members or read SA?
Actually " I " thought that the figures would indicate the stock to be tighter than it is, but I guess they want the rest before the news. Why wasn't this article done back in August around the $14 level?
I want this to get started so badly for two reasons. First is that this is the first BCRX drug NOT an antiviral and the reason why the $20 price targets were issued. Initiation of the trials would generate a reiteration of buys from the houses and maybe attract new recommendations do to the time of year we are entering. 4430 and Perama would be the wine and the gravy that makes the beef taste better.
Second, because I consider this a catalyst for a buy out. And the vast bulk (like 99%) of take overs occur BEFORE the drug, for which the company is being acquired, gets FDA approval. And then there's the fact that the vast bulk of bio take outs occur, or I should say are announced, in the first quarter of the year.
Going to be an interesting 6 months ahead.
Funny how nobody has mentioned the girl friend who, by the way, said .... she "was glad to see him". And I suspect, because of their age, there was more than one form of bodily fluids transferred because of that statement.
We can debate personal responsibility all we want. And that is what I feared most in this society. It's the first follow on transmission, NOT to a patient care worker, that is going to #$%$ the market and drive this to insane behavior and panic.
One more thought of late.
Regardless of the actual volume, BCRX trades better when over 50% of the stock trades on the exchange. When it trades less than that, it is generally a bad day.
Says that government has gone into whisking away potential Ebola patients and clamped down on security in an attempt to control panic. There one minute .... and then just gone. Staffs being threatened against using the word Ebola.
One hospital chain removed the suits because even drills caused panic.
Just the first such article, but I'm sure there will be more even if it isn't true.
Left off the last line.
Seems to me that BCRX (the last 6 weeks) tracks closer with the price of oil than it does to the biotech index. Just keep an eye on it.
Why? Heard a theory that didn't make sense to me, but the guy was on CNBC which means he knows enough to get paid for his opinions which is a step above me.
The theory was that when the Euro weakened a trade was made possible like the so called Kerry trade of the dollar against the Japanese yen. You were to short commodities, the companies associated with those commodities, and health care stocks. The latter was what made me go, huh?
I mean, if the rising dollar is going to negatively affect earnings and slow the economy, then wouldn't you want to own smaller, US based companies with growth rates above their PEs? Ain't that health care and biotech in particular? But they still run the playbook and play a sum total game.
I think Citrus did short some of the 6.6 million shares before the S-3 would come out.
But just like longs follow institutions on the buy, so do small / day shorts on the "apparent institutional sales". Also remember that these small E&Ps flounder on their own and really move as part of the sector. So the shorting could just have been hedge funds selling the dollar advance too.
Who cares though, with all the dark pool stuff and MM games. All we need to know is that it is just about over and there should be a Big jump in production for the quarter and fairly good earnings if they don't write off a bunch of stuff from the resent acquisition. I figure that should come next quarter for the EOY.
Be nice if they tell us we are selling at a PE of 4 for next years earnings with a PV-10 around $8.
Well of coarse the shorting is institutional. Mostly hedge funds. Same as small E&Ps. Some day shorts are playing games between other Ebola stocks and the like, looking at the huge short interest as a guide or proxy, but this is long(er) term institutional.
They shorted a whole basket of bios without an approved product or earnings after the summer run. I'm sure that some shorted everything in the index itself and they have been closing that in panic after this recovery which is why the index has been performing as it has. Hedgies are the only ones that could get MMs to accept the short without stock or risk losing their business.
Us little guys are different. But we are moving into the time of the year where they need to cover everything. Today's buying is an example. They really want to cover before the $12.50 trigger or risk moving it a lot higher. Personally, I think they can hold it without news, but we will see.
You guys like positives. Expectations are fairly low at least judging by the options through January and it looks like the $12s will be the focus based upon what is known today.
Every day that we trade in this range eliminates more and more people / institutions that want to sell at this level. I would like to have been a fly on the wall at the NIH meeting yesterday and I wonder how many potential investors we will get from that meeting. Those guys go back and talk to colleagues too.
The wider the base ..............................................................................
They are hedged out into 2016 if I understood properly ($4.50) and under contract for some other. Just like all these other smaller E&Ps which make this .... game of declines a joke. AXAS has the price of Oil at $95 a barrel every dam day.
Anybody that lends to this industry, and certainly to the smaller players, pretty much requires hedges as a condition of the loan.
Well, I could be happier with cracking the FDA barrier for sure and an increasing stock price, but my point is that we have been satisfied to hold BCRX for years when the " hope " was for a single product announcement.
And now we (me too) have a trifecta going and we are getting .... impatient. :)
Just increases the potential for multiple compacted news events during a time when the market will tend to show more appreciation to small biotech stocks.
And for those of us that have been in the Federal system, we know that there are only about 5 productive working weeks left in the year from a mental standpoint and there is competition for that time. Don't be disappointed if the events related to HAE turn out to be a 1st quarter phenom. I am not sure that BCRX has repaired that negative FDA bias and maybe should consider the European approval route for that first anyway since Ebola is likely to occupy the FDA into the spring / summer.
IMO: no it hasn't. We want quiet and low volume to get this stock away from Ebola being a requirement for sector participation. Time to shift gears to flu season which a lot of CYA is going to be needed on the part of gov't agencies to pull their bacon out of the fire with all their stockage being expired..
Much better to have the news events take place during the biotech season than to waste them now.