That move yesterday was institutional and it drug along individuals that overbought into a low volume stock with short term aspirations. It dropped until another institution decided to support it at the $6.00 level. This morning was the OMG panic from the folks that were at work yesterday as the panicked out which is why I bought.
So from an individual basis, who's left to sell without bad news? The institutional side is going to be what it is if the selling isn't over. I expect new institutions to pick up after this EOQ window dressing. There is no need for any new institutions to show a $6 stock for that purpose. So April should be a good month.
But price jumps should become larger in percentage too. All aboard!
I doubt that you are going to see the %.50 level now unless the institution isn't finished selling. So buying size is going to be tough. I picked up a little more this morning which eliminates my 3.80 point, so we will see.
My buys are 6, 5.80, and then 5.51. You have to scale into these unless you are only after say 2k shares. Then you have the flexibility to wait. So if you want more, you have to step in front of the train and take your lumps.
I figure that they try to close out the options within .50 cents of 10, then it should be all clear for the index next week.
I wanted to see the news to see if I want to come back and the jury is still out on that. But I read the negatives about the communication coming out of the company and I now think that they way it is being handled is the only way. I think they see options that look better at different pricing forecasts. Now if management were to communicate and put out all the what ifs' they would be looked at as indecisive. Darned if you do, darned ..................... type of thing.
I see positives here and then warts. These companies all have them so it is just a matter of sticking with where you want to be. These things are as much real-estate companies as E&Ps and it simply takes time to see the value. Now TMS is all the buzz. 6 months ago it was the Permian. Location, location, location
Glad you guys are happy. We all know how miserable dtj can be if a battery runs low on his calculator. So the less crunching the better and that's a happy guy. (for now) :)
As a follow up. What may have started out as an algorithm, turned into a MM selling. Around the 50 day during the last hour another institution started buying by absorbing the selling so as NOT to trigger an up algorithm. If there is no selling at the open tomorrow, IMO it will be hard to buy size at this level unless it is another down day in the market.
A buddy I went to school with. One of those types that was a life time student. :)
The real " trick " is determining if a program is in charge or if it is something wrong with the stock. That is the purpose of the first buy point in case the stock turns, at least I get some.
Now we see if this point holds and the stock moves up. If it doesn't tomorrow is likely another downer till support stops the decline. You have to understand technicals too. I got out of all my bios as of last Friday and this and BIOD are the first hits that triggered buys.
That can change an algorithm if it trips increased volume. Volume is the only variable that I know that can reverse the one that's running or a technical one. As an example this is currently a 5 day downer that is making a line that when broken will start a new program.
So .... until the stock reaches a support point that trips a new program or breaks that downtrend line, the bias is to the down side.
See, you miss the point Jack just like you did with options on BOTA. Until news, that changes the algorithm, BCRX trades as a stock. MM algorithms trade on option days as if BCRXC was an options giant along with everything else. Also, these programs have programs that spot technical patterns that kick in algorithms that trade BCRX as a stock. Understand, MM may lose on BCRX or BOTA or something else, but the programs will win with more stocks than it loses, so BCRX reacts accordingly.
I gave stock projections, not company ones. Notice my long term BUY.
You have a double top that is usually good for 30% down from the highs. (@ $4)
You broke a 3 month up trend line today that usually means the stock won't recover over night and that it will take awhile. (makes it more susceptible to trade with the market)
The only positive is the RSI that has corrected to these levels and turned in the past and might support the stock, but I doubt it as you have sector rotation taking place as well. $10.25 was resistance on the way up, so I figure that it is support on the way down.
Remember, the stock trades as a stock which can have little to do with the actual "company". These were comments on the stock.
Pull up a chart and add indicators for OBV and A/D and see if you can find a better E&P on any exchange since the first of the year. Course this stock was hammered more than it otherwise would have because of two events last year.
First was the surprise ( credibility losing ) stock issuance last August that we now know was for the TMS property. The second was a historical up year for the market that demanded that people sell losers to counter gains.
So the price appreciation so far this year is more of a relief rally due to a lack of selling, but a gain is a gain. Really, we should be flat or still down for the year at these current price levels, so there is more to come just to catch up to the group. This is important to understand if you think we have come too far too fast.
Ready to break up? :)
Funny, most Americans can't buy a home without taking on a massive amount of debt for 15 to 30 years. Yet taking on this massive debt is considered the best way to build wealth for the bulk of Americans.
But when a company does it, for 3 to 5 years it is looked at as mismanagement.
What's really impressive is HK, with all it's problems to include it's debt, if you pull up a 6 month chart and add OBV and A/D indicators, what you will see is the #1 E&P for accumulation of any E&P, any size, that I could find on any exchange.