337 now dead. All of West Africa in out break zone. Resources exhausted. No doctors or medical teams left to send to new outbreak areas.
And you guys thought this died away.
As if it couldn't get worse.
The worst thing I want to see on a chart with an over bought stock is the middle finger of death. And to do it with an exhaustion gap up is right out of the text book.
This BETTER not close down today or the print will stand.
" IMHO there are no positive catalysts in sight for a few months and the stock may be like watching grass grow for a while."
This is a manufacturing company in a smaller industry segment doing virtually everything right that is taking market share and selling at @ an 11 PE that sees enough value to still be buying back stock. The segment in which it operates is unlikely to garner a higher market PE without the market establishing one.
It should be boring, steady money anyway. Think of it as a bank on steroids and you won't build too high of expectations.
The debt can be AAA rated, doesn't matter. And banks can short too. I was giving you a generality of how debt is treated and why you see so many long term shorts that people automatically assume it is a prognosis on the company or the business forecast for it. Often short interest has nothing to do with the actual business.
And banks can trust SWHC, but not politicians that could immediately wipe out business with the stroke of a vote.
Generally, when a company issues debt, the stock goes down. A certain percentage of the buyers will protect their principal by shorting the common so if the issuer of the debt can not pay back the loan, they get their principal back on the short. Particularly " IF " they don't have to worry about paying a dividend.
This becomes longer duration activity that comes and goes (they don't want to lose money on the short either) and distorts the true picture. This activity is pretty heavy in any business sector there is potential for negative events outside of the control of the company (politics or weather, etc) .
All strategy. Ever watch a stock trade and volume spikes and the price jumps for a quick minute and ask yourself why that institution wasn't patient and accumulate slowly at lower prices? Institutions that want to acquire stock will post a "phantom block" of stock above trading range so that it is high enough not to get bought and big enough to hold volume down. They accumulate below that. Once another institution figures out the game, they will spike the volume to run up and grab that block before it can be pulled and then they buy the stock back down.
The point is that every one plays a game to get around someone else's game. Smaller stocks fall victim to it especially without news to generate volume. And then you have news feeds that publish coming news events. Like XOMA was the last I saw where they are do trial news of some sort by month end. Good .... or bad, volume will now run higher, just like it did for BCRX. They will spike it one way or the other and move on to the next flower.
That is what has me concerned here. And if you cruse the sites, every bio and energy company is a buy out candidate and the stock action does not accurately reflect the potential of the company even though prices are way up from historic averages or just 6 months ago. That generally sets the stage for a correction.
Remember that the end of May prices @ $16 were used to calculate the rebalance for 2014 and prices this year are 50% higher this year than last. That means that funds that track the Russell will have till the end of June to acquire 50% more stock to track the indexes in which SWHC is traded. They gotta buy no matter what.
That's gonna tighten up that float pretty good even if management doesn't lay in the stock to guarantee next quarter's beat. And you just KNOW that is already planned. How big is that float again?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You could be right. But then again, volume has been double or more for almost a week before the shares were priced. While somebody bought, somebody sold them.
How many people are left to sell on more than week old news? So, from a statistical standpoint, I figure that my guess is closer.
Wasn't this already granted Orphan status last year? I mean the small patient population would have made perusing this insane unless they had it already.
Would seem like common sense right? Coarse the $NBI correction in this slow growing economy didn't make much sense either. All they did was chase the momo money from Bios to energy.
What scarred me was they have control of the indexes till triple witching is over. BCRX is solid to have the 12s expire worthless ( + or - 3/8s of 12) as I thought.
What happens Monday when the gloves come off?
Subtract normal daily volume at this time of the day and it looks like Institutions have blown out 50% of the 10 million shares they were gifted.
Eventually this HAS to dry up doesn't it? Forget how well it is received, are they going to sell it all?
Not true. You see IPOs where they buy above issuance price. It's based upon demand. Markets set prices, as will be the case here. Last year HK did two separate issuances. One at market value. The second was at a 10% discount. The first, institutions supported the stock. The second upset the institutions that bought the first and end up that it cut valuation by 33% for about 6 months.
Remember markets look 6 to 9 months out. This company needs CAPEX for next year. They will have zero. They have the following choices.
A.) Sell property like they said they were once going to do.
B.) Borrow the money like they said they wouldn't.
C). Sell MUCH more shares.
If you go by what they do and not what they say, ........................................
Long term, yes. Short term? Oh boy.
The natural human reaction, when you see something in a forced sell situation is to hold off and see how cheap you can get it. The floor is the $4.50 support area and management has said $5.00 is fair value.
So I expect the market to respect that valuation eventually.
Bog. You are a smart guy. All institutions are made aware of these situations and given time to research and make a decision. But every quality of company good and bad has a stock that trades making a high for the year and a low that often doesn't reflect company potential. Companies that remain chronically undervalued develop a negative stigma that also hampers valuation. In a way, the more shares offered also raises the PE and brings valuation more into line with the market which was apparently expected and why we remain in this price range. Maybe this will remove some of the skepticism and negative bias.
Just gonna take more time and volume to move now. The fundamentals you describe will dictate our fate eventually.
The price offering of the stock was kind of a negative because it means that institutions weren't clamoring for the issuance. The shorting started yesterday from the institutions taking the quick 10%. If not for that, yesterday was going to be a HUGE day. So the road can / will get very bumpy till we work through the new issuance because at least some institutions aren't going to hold. If it starts down, the pace of dumping could accelerate. Its even happening in the premarket, so this could (key word because this will tell you the actual interest) be a bad day if they decide to blow out.
Been watching this stock for an entry and I see why it is so undervalued. This stock is a grinder.
Even when it is going up, it simply grinds you till it hurts. I can't imagine the opposite, but I'll bet there are those here that could tell me.
Looks like I will get my entry point this week.
Markets generally look ahead by at least 6 months. Meaning that conformation of this years earnings will have them pricing in next years earnings soon even without a PE expansion. I don't expect the PE to expand until the 3rd Quarter is released in November.
We are on precarious ground. The $NBI is set to go negative on the MACD. We are at a Fibonacci retracement of the down side move from the high. Head & Shoulders will form with a decline. If this does not break above these levels, I see 20% downside on the index from here that takes out the resent low running into late summer.
FYI: I will be exiting tomorrow (several positions) and wait until the NBI breaks up, BCRX trades at $13.30, or the dust clears. Just too much risk now.