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Penn Virginia Corporation Message Board

me2yousee 208 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 26, 2014 2:27 PM Member since: Feb 25, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Old vs New BCRX

    by me2yousee Dec 26, 2014 11:52 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 26, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    This is why I liked 4430's potential. You DON'T have to take it everyday for the rest of your life.

    If you took all the drugs approved over time and used them everyday for their disease, chances are less than 10% would pass the FDA again. If you take something for a week or two, there is less chance of something turning green and falling off or morphing into something on the SciFi channel. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Old vs New BCRX

    by me2yousee Dec 26, 2014 11:52 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 26, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    Except for price, I agree with you. Risks left to remove before a significantly higher market cap occurs:

    1. Money is raised in at least the minimal amounts that BCRX mentioned.
    2. 4161 has no longer term toxicity issues that arise in this testing. Before you guys jump on me here, even aspirin has some negative long term effects.
    3. 4430 meets expectations as this is a wild card NOT factored in.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee by me2yousee Dec 26, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Boy, this past year has been one of transformation. We got a product through the FDA. And more importantly got them to "grant" Orphan Status for 4161. The second step didn't necessarily have to occur, but was done, and without government influence from a parent agency. This saves major time and money. That lowers the totals for money that must be raised in case success is a little less with one of the money pies in development.

    And the market has responded with an 850 000,000 market cap already without dollar one being raised. While all the news has been disappointing in the price reaction to it, this shows a respect that wouldn't have been recognized by the market two years ago. And sets the trend for the year to come. While I once was speculating on a buy out, I am more inclined to see real value created before that time comes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    supply status...

    by huskys4u2 Dec 26, 2014 11:12 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 26, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    Ho, ho, ho !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts to New Longs

    by me2yousee Dec 24, 2014 9:10 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 24, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    Ahhhh, they are the payer but ONLY for those steps they authorize for a disease. They establish what will be reimbursed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts to New Longs

    by me2yousee Dec 24, 2014 9:10 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 24, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Ahhh to be honest, I don't. And I don't want to. The hospitals are NOT our customer base, the government is in this case. Until we sign a company up to peddle this to hospitals, then that makes it a different issue. But that is VERY unlikely.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts to New Longs

    by me2yousee Dec 24, 2014 9:10 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 24, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    No idea. But the majority of patients are Medicare. If Medicare determines that it is cheaper than a hospital stay, change will occur. Another government agency squeezing another government organization. I like it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee by me2yousee Dec 24, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    Could be that by the time the institutions realize that it was a mistake to be short, that they might also want to be long. So instead of 10 million shares short, the closure could be 12 million and increase as the momo shows profit potential for 2015.

    Next step to remove price risk at these levels is a contract for Rapivab. And, the longer it takes, the bigger it might be. Was in a ER yesterday in a town of about 18k and they had 126 flu patients (mostly elderly) on Monday and Tuesday. Just like the 1400 people that the CDC is tracking for Ebola in the US today, it is not being reported to prevent panic. But the gov't knows!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Big Blocks for Sale

    by me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 8:27 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    I'll be dog gone. Just got a DJ press release that says, Rapivab is manufactured by Biocryst Pharmaceuticals.

    Guess who is reading this board? :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Big Blocks for Sale

    by me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 8:27 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    You wouldn't know that from the company's own press release. Reads pretty dire to me.

    Not approved for kids (largest audience) may not be able to sell it to governments. Etc, etc. And after they made a BIG deal out of not getting approved without a manufacturer, they state nothing about it being for sale immediately.

    My point: Unless you are a die hard follower, this thread / stock is a better kept secret than some CIA documents. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Big Blocks for Sale

    by me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 8:27 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    Oh I agree, but I already own all I'm gonna at these prices.

    Just trying to get folks that don't follow the company that closely to understand what the market is reacting too. Even the company said the only use is for the stock contract, so minus news on that front or a commercial agreement with some company, The upside reaction only had so much mileage which is what I was trying to warn you guys about last week. Without the algo, and minus news, we are headed lower to test support once again.

    And just like high school, too many tests and you increase the possibility of a failure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Big Blocks for Sale

    by me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 8:27 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    The idea for a bio moving up is for large amounts of revenue. While the Rapivab approval adds credibility, it doesn't offer any revenue at this point. Still can't manufacture it and no idea how much the gov't wants to stock.

    So while approval is a good thing, I think the Jubilant news and or a 10 year contract is still going to be necessary for massive covering by shorts.

    As it is, we may actually end the day with higher short interest than we started. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 8:58 AM Flag

    I'd wait. Joe Sixpack came home from work Friday and maybe didn't find out what happened to his stock until the Saturday paper. So there will be a mini panic early as it will be the first time those folks can trade.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • me2yousee by me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 8:27 AM Flag

    Either they are really trying to contain this or Ol'Husky is blowin into us.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If you think of how many shares are short. How much money has followed their recommendation. And all those institutional guys are now on vacation during a low volume period of the year.

    All I can say is .... Merry Christmas. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    We Got It!

    by biotech86 Dec 22, 2014 4:35 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 22, 2014 5:54 AM Flag

    There's one for the books without the manufacturing issue. And at 3:54 Monday morning. Approval must have come at half time of Sunday Night Football ! Those gov't workers must be puttin in some kind of over time. But I'll take it.

    Now let's see the 10 year contract for storage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OT: IMGN Worth a Look

    by me2yousee Dec 19, 2014 1:56 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 21, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    My gamble is not on the company but the stock action. Friday was the last day for most funds and I was looking for something that tanked on THAT particular day. Something that does is generally worse because they (funds) HAVE to be out by COB if they want to go on vacation. Translation: The selling is indiscriminate and illogical which causes public panic and often leads to an over reaction to the downside.

    So I figure that with 3 times the products in testing as BCRX, they are bound to have feedback on one of the 12 that reinvigorates the stock over the next few months. Sometimes you win on these, and sometimes .................................

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BCRX starts out slow every day

    by capcod3 Dec 19, 2014 9:43 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 19, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    That dang Algo! :)

    I sold my short term stuff that I picked up in the $9s over the last month or so. Still have that long term stuff for next year and I can start writing calls on that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee by me2yousee Dec 19, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    Today's breast cancer trial failure was for an already FDA approved cancer product. I count 12 other products in various stages. (I, II, III) The 500 million market cap is below BCRX's 800 million making it look like this is WAY overdone. So I bought some for a next year play.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    On the positive note

    by copper_athlon Dec 19, 2014 11:16 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Dec 19, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    I think that a waver would be issued. And if the product was selling big time, then a second manufacturer would likely be found just in case. The only reason it hasn't been to now is because BCRX hasn't wanted to put any more time or money into it. Which may also change if approved. The "it's your baby" strategy is more to push gov't action to fight the FDA.

    But as I said before, if they tell the FDA they have no plans to sell it publically, that might encourage a large stock level.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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