It's not the large share holders selling 13.8M. It's the planned sales by management and the rush to close on the transaction. Everything together says that management is sacrificing this quarter. And an opportunity squandered.
We had a chance to blow out revenue and earnings and transform the perception the market has against GRPN. I can see the earnings headline now. GRPN Blows Away Revenue Estimates, Still Can't Make Money. The gist of the article will be, bad business model, same ol GRPN.
Never said it was. I ride sectors, not stocks. The ETF is a momo indicator for the sector. It's more important to be in a winning sector than in the right stock. The small float will work enough magic, especially in the month of January with this short interest.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Boys tread lightly. BCEI broke an 18 month uptrend line. We all like winners like this, but what that means is the longer the trend that was in place, the longer the recovery will need to be. BCEI has a good entry coming of $34 to $37 which isn't that much, but it may be awhile before the turn. And just like we had the golden cross, it is going the other way for BCEI and is called the death cross. Just so you know
How can anyone tell unless you knew why they bought it. I believe GRPN paid what looks to be way too much. But I think they wanted the rights to the mobile app software more than the actual company. Originally, the deal wasn't supposed to close until June / July. So why the rush?
" I " think there will be a lot of good will write downs associated with this, and because of the better than GRPN expected quarter, they decided to expedite the process and take the write offs in this quarter / year so next year is clean.
So the question is: will this ruin the good earnings for this quarter? The revenue will be there, but the earnings might not be so surprising on the positive side now. And that might cause .... disappointment with such lofty expectations already built in to the stock. So the market re-valuation upward everyone here was hoping for, might have to wait until later this year.
The market will tell you next week when the "pros" come back to work who have a staff to analyze if I am correct or not.
Now the federal government says that Bakken oil is .... more flammable than other crude and maybe it needs to be declared as hazardous material. What that means is that it will cost WAY more to transport.
So it is beginning. And it is going to be a real hot potato before it is all said and done. It's going to get ugly for Bakken producers.
FYI We have had a pretty ....... rapid (I can't believe I actually got to use that word here) advance (this one too) up. That upward trend line will soon be broken and that means pull back. If history holds here, we could test as far back as $6 again. This time could be less though, so don't bank on the way things used to be in case they aren't.
Just so you prepare your mind cause I know how depressed some folks get when that happens.
Nope. I'm buying with both hands. The ETF has caught fire and will drive the buy train enough for all of these small floaters and there is no stock available till prices move up. This is why you NEVER short a small floater. Now that selling for taxes (like you found above) is over, somebody better call NASA and report a moon launch. Then call 911 for the shorts.
Enjoy the January effect.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
All you would have to do is throw up an Accumulation / Distribution line on a chart and look at other profit taking periods and it will slap you in the face.
This one isn't a panic sale like before. Wonder what happens when the calendar turns over and the reason for selling .... stops?
I was surprised MPO held pretty well yesterday during the onslaught that stopped me out of TPLM. Then last night we get that train derailment in ND that is going to take awhile to clear during very cold weather. Then comes the political fall out. What is going to happen to crude prices there for a couple of weeks since most goes out by rail?
Kinda nice to have your fields where it ain't so cold and pipe is everywhere, huh? And that NG ain't smellin so bad now either.
Happy golden cross day.
Those were zero cost options too. His taxes must be going up next year. Many states are and this is an epidemic across many stock segments even with ones that share prices didn't do so well this year like MPO.
Yep. Companies that don't have an open stock buy back program run their shareholders through this. The company never has to execute a single share, but it causes too much risk for MMs so they play someplace else.
We were talking about bottoms and break outs and Tom pointed out the other day that the bottom actually occurred at the $4 level. So far .... that is correct. But the actual basing pattern for me won't be finished until the stock clears $9 on convincing volume. The stock spent a lot of time in the $7 - $9 range and attempted and failed twice to end the down trend and break up. And it will be the pattern that forms at this time if you want consider MPO an "investment".
Enjoy the January effect, but don't get excited unless $9 and resistance goes by the wayside. And that is not likely till at least late this year and more likely next year if it's going to happen at all. Keep that in mind when you get excited and punch your calculators.
Ask yourself this: Why would they downgrade just before a run up? Why would you downgrade a small stock just before January when earnings won't be for three months? Wouldn't they do better to look like they have influence by downgrading after the MACD turn and the stock is over bought? Why would you downgrade when nobody's watching?
It's a VERY good way to test stock strength because a weak stock will react to anything, especially during tax loss selling season. So it could be somebody wanted to know that downside was limited and the all clear to buy was in place. They could pimp themselves because few people were watching this time of year and it would be the least damaging to their reputation. And there is probably something in it for them down the line.
Sit back and enjoy the show. Here comes the January effect.
And you sir hit on the very key to why " I believe " TPLM is undervalued. Folks realize that you can't build businesses without capital. Everyone will want in when it's done, but why go through all that?
" I " thought all along that $7 would be the strong resistance, so it will depend what happens when we hit there and the MACD rolls over at that point (when ever that is) as to how far any retracement will be.
Volume after the new year actually begins will tell more. Volume right now is exactly what I was hoping for.
TPLM broke up out of a 3 year channel starting in August on huge volume for this stock and stayed there. So it ran with the rest of the sector trading a large percentage of the stock. It peaked in October and has been correcting ever since. That means old timers have gains, and a lot of newbies have losses which accounts for the current intense selling / chart.
All this is tax driven and goes away in January which is why I suspect this stock tends to run in January into February. (for the last two / three years) MACD says that it is about to do that again. Interesting thing is that for the last two years this stock peaks in early February and again in October. Why?
Am I wrong?
I have another E&P stock that has been pointed out to have a significant jump in it's options activity. This is normally a small option play, but activity is way up for it on a percentage basis. Technicals look real good for a blast next week if nothing else. The stock is TPLM. Not your cup of tea, I understand as it has been discussed here before.